Diplomatic expulsions of U.S. ambassadors remain rare escalations that typically require severe bilateral breakdowns, and no such action has occurred through mid-September 2026 despite frictions in several capitals. Recent developments include a Canadian parliamentary petition with over 260,000 signatures urging the removal of Ambassador Pete Hoekstra amid trade disputes and annexation rhetoric, plus Iceland's formal summons of the U.S. envoy over provocative presidential statements. Other tensions, such as earlier U.S. visa actions against Brazil's envoy and resolved spats with France, have stayed below expulsion thresholds. With roughly three and a half months until year-end, traders price in the low likelihood of any government crossing this line absent a sudden crisis, consistent with historical patterns where most disputes are managed through summonses, recalls, or negotiations rather than persona non grata declarations.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日はい
13% 確率
$33,023 Vol.
$33,023 Vol.
2026/12/30
はい
13% 確率
$33,023 Vol.
$33,023 Vol.
2026/12/30
This market will resolve to “Yes” if any U.S. ambassador is expelled from their assigned country by the government of that country between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59: PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Any expulsion from a country where a U.S. ambassador is assigned as of the time of this market’s creation will qualify.
For the purposes of resolving this market, an official announcement that a U.S. ambassador will be or is being expelled will suffice regardless of whether or not the respective ambassador leaves the country within this market’s timeframe.
Qualifying announcements must be definitive, unambiguous, official statements issued by an authorized governmental person or entity.
Whether the ambassador resigns, is recalled, or otherwise departs voluntarily will have no bearing on the resolution of this market.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of the United States, including the U.S. Department of State, as well as official information from the relevant expelling government; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Diplomatic expulsions of U.S. ambassadors remain rare escalations that typically require severe bilateral breakdowns, and no such action has occurred through mid-September 2026 despite frictions in several capitals. Recent developments include a Canadian parliamentary petition with over 260,000 signatures urging the removal of Ambassador Pete Hoekstra amid trade disputes and annexation rhetoric, plus Iceland's formal summons of the U.S. envoy over provocative presidential statements. Other tensions, such as earlier U.S. visa actions against Brazil's envoy and resolved spats with France, have stayed below expulsion thresholds. With roughly three and a half months until year-end, traders price in the low likelihood of any government crossing this line absent a sudden crisis, consistent with historical patterns where most disputes are managed through summonses, recalls, or negotiations rather than persona non grata declarations.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if any U.S. ambassador is expelled from their assigned country by the government of that country between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59: PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Any expulsion from a country where a U.S. ambassador is assigned as of the time of this market’s creation will qualify.
For the purposes of resolving this market, an official announcement that a U.S. ambassador will be or is being expelled will suffice regardless of whether or not the respective ambassador leaves the country within this market’s timeframe.
Qualifying announcements must be definitive, unambiguous, official statements issued by an authorized governmental person or entity.
Whether the ambassador resigns, is recalled, or otherwise departs voluntarily will have no bearing on the resolution of this market.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of the United States, including the U.S. Department of State, as well as official information from the relevant expelling government; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Any expulsion from a country where a U.S. ambassador is assigned as of the time of this market’s creation will qualify.
For the purposes of resolving this market, an official announcement that a U.S. ambassador will be or is being expelled will suffice regardless of whether or not the respective ambassador leaves the country within this market’s timeframe.
Qualifying announcements must be definitive, unambiguous, official statements issued by an authorized governmental person or entity.
Whether the ambassador resigns, is recalled, or otherwise departs voluntarily will have no bearing on the resolution of this market.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of the United States, including the U.S. Department of State, as well as official information from the relevant expelling government; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
マーケット開始日： Mar 31, 2026, 3:41 PM ET
音量
$33,023終了日
2026/12/31マーケット開始日
Mar 31, 2026, 3:41 PM ETリゾルバー
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “Yes” if any U.S. ambassador is expelled from their assigned country by the government of that country between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59: PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Any expulsion from a country where a U.S. ambassador is assigned as of the time of this market’s creation will qualify.
For the purposes of resolving this market, an official announcement that a U.S. ambassador will be or is being expelled will suffice regardless of whether or not the respective ambassador leaves the country within this market’s timeframe.
Qualifying announcements must be definitive, unambiguous, official statements issued by an authorized governmental person or entity.
Whether the ambassador resigns, is recalled, or otherwise departs voluntarily will have no bearing on the resolution of this market.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of the United States, including the U.S. Department of State, as well as official information from the relevant expelling government; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Diplomatic expulsions of U.S. ambassadors remain rare escalations that typically require severe bilateral breakdowns, and no such action has occurred through mid-September 2026 despite frictions in several capitals. Recent developments include a Canadian parliamentary petition with over 260,000 signatures urging the removal of Ambassador Pete Hoekstra amid trade disputes and annexation rhetoric, plus Iceland's formal summons of the U.S. envoy over provocative presidential statements. Other tensions, such as earlier U.S. visa actions against Brazil's envoy and resolved spats with France, have stayed below expulsion thresholds. With roughly three and a half months until year-end, traders price in the low likelihood of any government crossing this line absent a sudden crisis, consistent with historical patterns where most disputes are managed through summonses, recalls, or negotiations rather than persona non grata declarations.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if any U.S. ambassador is expelled from their assigned country by the government of that country between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59: PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Any expulsion from a country where a U.S. ambassador is assigned as of the time of this market’s creation will qualify.
For the purposes of resolving this market, an official announcement that a U.S. ambassador will be or is being expelled will suffice regardless of whether or not the respective ambassador leaves the country within this market’s timeframe.
Qualifying announcements must be definitive, unambiguous, official statements issued by an authorized governmental person or entity.
Whether the ambassador resigns, is recalled, or otherwise departs voluntarily will have no bearing on the resolution of this market.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of the United States, including the U.S. Department of State, as well as official information from the relevant expelling government; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Any expulsion from a country where a U.S. ambassador is assigned as of the time of this market’s creation will qualify.
For the purposes of resolving this market, an official announcement that a U.S. ambassador will be or is being expelled will suffice regardless of whether or not the respective ambassador leaves the country within this market’s timeframe.
Qualifying announcements must be definitive, unambiguous, official statements issued by an authorized governmental person or entity.
Whether the ambassador resigns, is recalled, or otherwise departs voluntarily will have no bearing on the resolution of this market.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of the United States, including the U.S. Department of State, as well as official information from the relevant expelling government; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
音量
$33,023終了日
2026/12/31マーケット開始日
Mar 31, 2026, 3:41 PM ETリゾルバー
0x65070BE91...Diplomatic expulsions of U.S. ambassadors remain rare escalations that typically require severe bilateral breakdowns, and no such action has occurred through mid-September 2026 despite frictions in several capitals. Recent developments include a Canadian parliamentary petition with over 260,000 signatures urging the removal of Ambassador Pete Hoekstra amid trade disputes and annexation rhetoric, plus Iceland's formal summons of the U.S. envoy over provocative presidential statements. Other tensions, such as earlier U.S. visa actions against Brazil's envoy and resolved spats with France, have stayed below expulsion thresholds. With roughly three and a half months until year-end, traders price in the low likelihood of any government crossing this line absent a sudden crisis, consistent with historical patterns where most disputes are managed through summonses, recalls, or negotiations rather than persona non grata declarations.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日
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