Despite ongoing U.S.-Iran tensions and regional conflict that prompted ordered departures of American diplomats from multiple Middle East posts earlier in 2026, no host country has declared a U.S. ambassador persona non grata or ordered an expulsion. Iran publicly offered incentives in March 2026 for nations to remove U.S. and Israeli envoys, yet no governments acted on the call. The United States has instead driven recent diplomatic friction through its own recalls of roughly 30 ambassadors late in 2025 and reductions in State Department staffing, leaving nearly half of ambassadorial posts vacant. These dynamics, combined with standard diplomatic channels remaining open in key capitals, underpin trader consensus that an expulsion is unlikely before year-end.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日はい
15% 確率
$20,125 Vol.
$20,125 Vol.
2026/12/31
はい
15% 確率
$20,125 Vol.
$20,125 Vol.
2026/12/31
This market will resolve to “Yes” if any U.S. ambassador is expelled from their assigned country by the government of that country between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59: PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Any expulsion from a country where a U.S. ambassador is assigned as of the time of this market’s creation will qualify.
For the purposes of resolving this market, an official announcement that a U.S. ambassador will be or is being expelled will suffice regardless of whether or not the respective ambassador leaves the country within this market’s timeframe.
Qualifying announcements must be definitive, unambiguous, official statements issued by an authorized governmental person or entity.
Whether the ambassador resigns, is recalled, or otherwise departs voluntarily will have no bearing on the resolution of this market.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of the United States, including the U.S. Department of State, as well as official information from the relevant expelling government; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Despite ongoing U.S.-Iran tensions and regional conflict that prompted ordered departures of American diplomats from multiple Middle East posts earlier in 2026, no host country has declared a U.S. ambassador persona non grata or ordered an expulsion. Iran publicly offered incentives in March 2026 for nations to remove U.S. and Israeli envoys, yet no governments acted on the call. The United States has instead driven recent diplomatic friction through its own recalls of roughly 30 ambassadors late in 2025 and reductions in State Department staffing, leaving nearly half of ambassadorial posts vacant. These dynamics, combined with standard diplomatic channels remaining open in key capitals, underpin trader consensus that an expulsion is unlikely before year-end.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if any U.S. ambassador is expelled from their assigned country by the government of that country between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59: PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Any expulsion from a country where a U.S. ambassador is assigned as of the time of this market’s creation will qualify.
For the purposes of resolving this market, an official announcement that a U.S. ambassador will be or is being expelled will suffice regardless of whether or not the respective ambassador leaves the country within this market’s timeframe.
Qualifying announcements must be definitive, unambiguous, official statements issued by an authorized governmental person or entity.
Whether the ambassador resigns, is recalled, or otherwise departs voluntarily will have no bearing on the resolution of this market.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of the United States, including the U.S. Department of State, as well as official information from the relevant expelling government; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Any expulsion from a country where a U.S. ambassador is assigned as of the time of this market’s creation will qualify.
For the purposes of resolving this market, an official announcement that a U.S. ambassador will be or is being expelled will suffice regardless of whether or not the respective ambassador leaves the country within this market’s timeframe.
Qualifying announcements must be definitive, unambiguous, official statements issued by an authorized governmental person or entity.
Whether the ambassador resigns, is recalled, or otherwise departs voluntarily will have no bearing on the resolution of this market.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of the United States, including the U.S. Department of State, as well as official information from the relevant expelling government; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
マーケット開始日： Mar 31, 2026, 3:41 PM ET
音量
$20,125終了日
2026/12/31マーケット開始日
Mar 31, 2026, 3:41 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “Yes” if any U.S. ambassador is expelled from their assigned country by the government of that country between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59: PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Any expulsion from a country where a U.S. ambassador is assigned as of the time of this market’s creation will qualify.
For the purposes of resolving this market, an official announcement that a U.S. ambassador will be or is being expelled will suffice regardless of whether or not the respective ambassador leaves the country within this market’s timeframe.
Qualifying announcements must be definitive, unambiguous, official statements issued by an authorized governmental person or entity.
Whether the ambassador resigns, is recalled, or otherwise departs voluntarily will have no bearing on the resolution of this market.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of the United States, including the U.S. Department of State, as well as official information from the relevant expelling government; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Despite ongoing U.S.-Iran tensions and regional conflict that prompted ordered departures of American diplomats from multiple Middle East posts earlier in 2026, no host country has declared a U.S. ambassador persona non grata or ordered an expulsion. Iran publicly offered incentives in March 2026 for nations to remove U.S. and Israeli envoys, yet no governments acted on the call. The United States has instead driven recent diplomatic friction through its own recalls of roughly 30 ambassadors late in 2025 and reductions in State Department staffing, leaving nearly half of ambassadorial posts vacant. These dynamics, combined with standard diplomatic channels remaining open in key capitals, underpin trader consensus that an expulsion is unlikely before year-end.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if any U.S. ambassador is expelled from their assigned country by the government of that country between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59: PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Any expulsion from a country where a U.S. ambassador is assigned as of the time of this market’s creation will qualify.
For the purposes of resolving this market, an official announcement that a U.S. ambassador will be or is being expelled will suffice regardless of whether or not the respective ambassador leaves the country within this market’s timeframe.
Qualifying announcements must be definitive, unambiguous, official statements issued by an authorized governmental person or entity.
Whether the ambassador resigns, is recalled, or otherwise departs voluntarily will have no bearing on the resolution of this market.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of the United States, including the U.S. Department of State, as well as official information from the relevant expelling government; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Any expulsion from a country where a U.S. ambassador is assigned as of the time of this market’s creation will qualify.
For the purposes of resolving this market, an official announcement that a U.S. ambassador will be or is being expelled will suffice regardless of whether or not the respective ambassador leaves the country within this market’s timeframe.
Qualifying announcements must be definitive, unambiguous, official statements issued by an authorized governmental person or entity.
Whether the ambassador resigns, is recalled, or otherwise departs voluntarily will have no bearing on the resolution of this market.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of the United States, including the U.S. Department of State, as well as official information from the relevant expelling government; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
音量
$20,125終了日
2026/12/31マーケット開始日
Mar 31, 2026, 3:41 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Despite ongoing U.S.-Iran tensions and regional conflict that prompted ordered departures of American diplomats from multiple Middle East posts earlier in 2026, no host country has declared a U.S. ambassador persona non grata or ordered an expulsion. Iran publicly offered incentives in March 2026 for nations to remove U.S. and Israeli envoys, yet no governments acted on the call. The United States has instead driven recent diplomatic friction through its own recalls of roughly 30 ambassadors late in 2025 and reductions in State Department staffing, leaving nearly half of ambassadorial posts vacant. These dynamics, combined with standard diplomatic channels remaining open in key capitals, underpin trader consensus that an expulsion is unlikely before year-end.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日
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