The ICJ case brought by South Africa against Israel continues through extended written pleadings, with South Africa’s reply due in November 2027 and Israel’s rejoinder not until 2029, delaying any final merits ruling on Genocide Convention violations well beyond the market’s 2027 cutoff. ICC arrest warrants issued for Israeli leaders address war crimes and crimes against humanity rather than genocide, while a recent UN commission report alleging ongoing violations carries no binding judicial weight. These procedural realities and jurisdictional limits create the near-even trader balance, with “No” at 50.5 percent. Faster ICJ hearings, expanded ICC charges, or new state interventions could shift probabilities, whereas further delays or unchanged charge scopes would reinforce the current consensus.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日新規
新規
2027/12/31
新規
新規
2027/12/31
This market will resolve to "Yes" if he International Criminal Court ("ICC"), the International Court of Justice ("ICJ"), or any ad hoc international tribunal with recognized legal standing, issues a judgment or conviction finding that either the State of Israel or any current or former Israeli official committed genocide or acts of genocide by December 31, 2027 at 11:59PM ET. Otherwise this market will resolve to "No".
For the judgment of an ad hoc tribunal to be relevant for purposes of this market, the tribunal must be established by the United Nations or any body thereof.
A first-instance conviction or judgment shall qualify for "Yes" resolution even if it remains subject to appeal or has not yet been affirmed on appeal.
Preliminary or provisional findings that are not judgments on the merits will not qualify for purposes of this market.
The resolution source will be official statements from the ICC, the ICJ, or a qualifying ad hoc tribunal; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
The ICJ case brought by South Africa against Israel continues through extended written pleadings, with South Africa’s reply due in November 2027 and Israel’s rejoinder not until 2029, delaying any final merits ruling on Genocide Convention violations well beyond the market’s 2027 cutoff. ICC arrest warrants issued for Israeli leaders address war crimes and crimes against humanity rather than genocide, while a recent UN commission report alleging ongoing violations carries no binding judicial weight. These procedural realities and jurisdictional limits create the near-even trader balance, with “No” at 50.5 percent. Faster ICJ hearings, expanded ICC charges, or new state interventions could shift probabilities, whereas further delays or unchanged charge scopes would reinforce the current consensus.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if he International Criminal Court ("ICC"), the International Court of Justice ("ICJ"), or any ad hoc international tribunal with recognized legal standing, issues a judgment or conviction finding that either the State of Israel or any current or former Israeli official committed genocide or acts of genocide by December 31, 2027 at 11:59PM ET. Otherwise this market will resolve to "No".
For the judgment of an ad hoc tribunal to be relevant for purposes of this market, the tribunal must be established by the United Nations or any body thereof.
A first-instance conviction or judgment shall qualify for "Yes" resolution even if it remains subject to appeal or has not yet been affirmed on appeal.
Preliminary or provisional findings that are not judgments on the merits will not qualify for purposes of this market.
The resolution source will be official statements from the ICC, the ICJ, or a qualifying ad hoc tribunal; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
For the judgment of an ad hoc tribunal to be relevant for purposes of this market, the tribunal must be established by the United Nations or any body thereof.
A first-instance conviction or judgment shall qualify for "Yes" resolution even if it remains subject to appeal or has not yet been affirmed on appeal.
Preliminary or provisional findings that are not judgments on the merits will not qualify for purposes of this market.
The resolution source will be official statements from the ICC, the ICJ, or a qualifying ad hoc tribunal; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
マーケット開始日： Jun 29, 2026, 3:31 PM ET
音量
$0終了日
2027/12/31マーケット開始日
Jun 29, 2026, 3:31 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if he International Criminal Court ("ICC"), the International Court of Justice ("ICJ"), or any ad hoc international tribunal with recognized legal standing, issues a judgment or conviction finding that either the State of Israel or any current or former Israeli official committed genocide or acts of genocide by December 31, 2027 at 11:59PM ET. Otherwise this market will resolve to "No".
For the judgment of an ad hoc tribunal to be relevant for purposes of this market, the tribunal must be established by the United Nations or any body thereof.
A first-instance conviction or judgment shall qualify for "Yes" resolution even if it remains subject to appeal or has not yet been affirmed on appeal.
Preliminary or provisional findings that are not judgments on the merits will not qualify for purposes of this market.
The resolution source will be official statements from the ICC, the ICJ, or a qualifying ad hoc tribunal; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
The ICJ case brought by South Africa against Israel continues through extended written pleadings, with South Africa’s reply due in November 2027 and Israel’s rejoinder not until 2029, delaying any final merits ruling on Genocide Convention violations well beyond the market’s 2027 cutoff. ICC arrest warrants issued for Israeli leaders address war crimes and crimes against humanity rather than genocide, while a recent UN commission report alleging ongoing violations carries no binding judicial weight. These procedural realities and jurisdictional limits create the near-even trader balance, with “No” at 50.5 percent. Faster ICJ hearings, expanded ICC charges, or new state interventions could shift probabilities, whereas further delays or unchanged charge scopes would reinforce the current consensus.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if he International Criminal Court ("ICC"), the International Court of Justice ("ICJ"), or any ad hoc international tribunal with recognized legal standing, issues a judgment or conviction finding that either the State of Israel or any current or former Israeli official committed genocide or acts of genocide by December 31, 2027 at 11:59PM ET. Otherwise this market will resolve to "No".
For the judgment of an ad hoc tribunal to be relevant for purposes of this market, the tribunal must be established by the United Nations or any body thereof.
A first-instance conviction or judgment shall qualify for "Yes" resolution even if it remains subject to appeal or has not yet been affirmed on appeal.
Preliminary or provisional findings that are not judgments on the merits will not qualify for purposes of this market.
The resolution source will be official statements from the ICC, the ICJ, or a qualifying ad hoc tribunal; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
For the judgment of an ad hoc tribunal to be relevant for purposes of this market, the tribunal must be established by the United Nations or any body thereof.
A first-instance conviction or judgment shall qualify for "Yes" resolution even if it remains subject to appeal or has not yet been affirmed on appeal.
Preliminary or provisional findings that are not judgments on the merits will not qualify for purposes of this market.
The resolution source will be official statements from the ICC, the ICJ, or a qualifying ad hoc tribunal; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
音量
$0終了日
2027/12/31マーケット開始日
Jun 29, 2026, 3:31 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...The ICJ case brought by South Africa against Israel continues through extended written pleadings, with South Africa’s reply due in November 2027 and Israel’s rejoinder not until 2029, delaying any final merits ruling on Genocide Convention violations well beyond the market’s 2027 cutoff. ICC arrest warrants issued for Israeli leaders address war crimes and crimes against humanity rather than genocide, while a recent UN commission report alleging ongoing violations carries no binding judicial weight. These procedural realities and jurisdictional limits create the near-even trader balance, with “No” at 50.5 percent. Faster ICJ hearings, expanded ICC charges, or new state interventions could shift probabilities, whereas further delays or unchanged charge scopes would reinforce the current consensus.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日
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