Negotiations for Phase II of the Israel-Hamas ceasefire in Gaza remain deadlocked as of mid-May 2026, centered on Hamas's insistence that Israel fully implement Phase I obligations—such as troop withdrawals, unrestricted aid, and reconstruction—before discussing disarmament and permanent truce terms. Hamas officials, including Osama Hamdan on April 30, rejected advancing without compliance, while Board of Peace envoy Nickolay Mladenov stated on May 13 that Hamas disarmament is non-negotiable to sustain the fragile truce amid ongoing Israeli strikes and armed group activities. UN Security Council briefings on May 5 underscored escalating humanitarian needs and mediation efforts by Qatar, Egypt, and the US, with no scheduled breakthrough talks.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日$2,748,472 Vol.
6月30日
11%
$2,748,472 Vol.
6月30日
11%
This market will resolve to "Yes" if an official agreement for the second phase of the Israel–Hamas ceasefire, defined as a publicly announced mutual agreement, is reached between Israel and Hamas by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If the agreement is officially reached before the resolution date, this market will resolve to "Yes," regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect.
For purposes of this market, a “second phase” ceasefire agreement refers to a deal publicly acknowledged by both Israel and Hamas (directly or via recognized mediators such as the U.S., Egypt, or Qatar) that goes beyond the Phase 1 initial truce and includes commitments towards a comprehensive or “full” ceasefire. Any agreement that is publicly described by the parties, or by mediators on their behalf, as the completion of “Phase 2” of the ceasefire will qualify, regardless of whether it includes further Israeli withdrawals beyond the “yellow line,” or agreements by Hamas to disarm.
An extension or continuation of the Phase 1 arrangement alone will not qualify.
This market's resolution will be based on official announcements from both Israel and Hamas, however a wide consensus of credible media reporting will also qualify.
マーケット開始日: Dec 17, 2025, 5:57 PM ET
Resolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if an official agreement for the second phase of the Israel–Hamas ceasefire, defined as a publicly announced mutual agreement, is reached between Israel and Hamas by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If the agreement is officially reached before the resolution date, this market will resolve to "Yes," regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect.
For purposes of this market, a “second phase” ceasefire agreement refers to a deal publicly acknowledged by both Israel and Hamas (directly or via recognized mediators such as the U.S., Egypt, or Qatar) that goes beyond the Phase 1 initial truce and includes commitments towards a comprehensive or “full” ceasefire. Any agreement that is publicly described by the parties, or by mediators on their behalf, as the completion of “Phase 2” of the ceasefire will qualify, regardless of whether it includes further Israeli withdrawals beyond the “yellow line,” or agreements by Hamas to disarm.
An extension or continuation of the Phase 1 arrangement alone will not qualify.
This market's resolution will be based on official announcements from both Israel and Hamas, however a wide consensus of credible media reporting will also qualify.
Resolver
0x65070BE91...Negotiations for Phase II of the Israel-Hamas ceasefire in Gaza remain deadlocked as of mid-May 2026, centered on Hamas's insistence that Israel fully implement Phase I obligations—such as troop withdrawals, unrestricted aid, and reconstruction—before discussing disarmament and permanent truce terms. Hamas officials, including Osama Hamdan on April 30, rejected advancing without compliance, while Board of Peace envoy Nickolay Mladenov stated on May 13 that Hamas disarmament is non-negotiable to sustain the fragile truce amid ongoing Israeli strikes and armed group activities. UN Security Council briefings on May 5 underscored escalating humanitarian needs and mediation efforts by Qatar, Egypt, and the US, with no scheduled breakthrough talks.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日
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