The Sudan civil war between the Sudanese Armed Forces (SAF) and Rapid Support Forces (RSF) has entered its fourth year with no sustained ceasefire, as SAF consolidated control over Khartoum and surrounding areas while RSF retains strongholds in Darfur and parts of Kordofan. Mediation by the Quad (United States, Egypt, Saudi Arabia, UAE), Quintet (AU, IGAD, LAS, EU, UN), and other actors has produced repeated calls for a humanitarian truce followed by a permanent ceasefire and civilian-led political process, including a June 2026 joint statement endorsing the Berlin Principles and Sudanese stakeholder dialogue. However, both parties maintain preconditions, external arms flows persist, and recent proposals such as a three-month renewable truce from Sudanese civil forces have not advanced to agreement. With Security Council assessments describing breakthrough prospects as remote, trader pricing for near-term deadlines reflects the entrenched military dynamics and stalled negotiations.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日Sudan civil war ceasefire by...?
Sudan civil war ceasefire by...?
$100,730 Vol.
2026/06/30
June 30, 2026
<1%
December 31, 2026
29%
$100,730 Vol.
June 30, 2026
$40,318 Vol.
<1%
December 31, 2026
$1,264 Vol.
29%
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is an official ceasefire agreement, defined as a publicly announced and mutually agreed halt in military engagement, between the Rapid Support Forces (RSF) and the Sudanese Armed Forces (SAF) by the listed date, 11:59 PM ET.
If the agreement is officially reached before the resolution date, this market will resolve to "Yes," regardless of whether the ceasefire officially starts afterward.
Any form of informal agreement will not be considered an official ceasefire. Humanitarian pauses will not count toward the resolution of this market.
A peace deal or political framework will qualify if it includes a publicly announced and mutually agreed halt in military engagement, effective on a specific date. Frameworks or agreements that outline terms for a future peace but do not include an explicit, dated commitment to stop fighting will not count.
This market's resolution will be based on official announcements from both the Rapid Support Forces and the Sudanese Armed Forces; however, a wide consensus of credible media reporting stating an official ceasefire agreement between the Rapid Support Forces and the Sudanese Armed Forces has been reached will suffice.This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is an official ceasefire agreement, defined as a publicly announced and mutually agreed halt in military engagement, between the Rapid Support Forces (RSF) and the Sudanese Armed Forces (SAF) by December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET.
If the agreement is officially reached before the resolution date, this market will resolve to "Yes," regardless of whether the ceasefire officially starts afterward.
Any form of informal agreement will not be considered an official ceasefire. Humanitarian pauses will not count toward the resolution of this market.
A peace deal or political framework will qualify if it includes a publicly announced and mutually agreed halt in military engagement, effective on a specific date. Frameworks or agreements that outline terms for a future peace but do not include an explicit, dated commitment to stop fighting will not count.
This market's resolution will be based on official announcements from both the Rapid Support Forces and the Sudanese Armed Forces; however, a wide consensus of credible media reporting stating an official ceasefire agreement between the Rapid Support Forces and the Sudanese Armed Forces has been reached will suffice.The Sudan civil war between the Sudanese Armed Forces (SAF) and Rapid Support Forces (RSF) has entered its fourth year with no sustained ceasefire, as SAF consolidated control over Khartoum and surrounding areas while RSF retains strongholds in Darfur and parts of Kordofan. Mediation by the Quad (United States, Egypt, Saudi Arabia, UAE), Quintet (AU, IGAD, LAS, EU, UN), and other actors has produced repeated calls for a humanitarian truce followed by a permanent ceasefire and civilian-led political process, including a June 2026 joint statement endorsing the Berlin Principles and Sudanese stakeholder dialogue. However, both parties maintain preconditions, external arms flows persist, and recent proposals such as a three-month renewable truce from Sudanese civil forces have not advanced to agreement. With Security Council assessments describing breakthrough prospects as remote, trader pricing for near-term deadlines reflects the entrenched military dynamics and stalled negotiations.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is an official ceasefire agreement, defined as a publicly announced and mutually agreed halt in military engagement, between the Rapid Support Forces (RSF) and the Sudanese Armed Forces (SAF) by the listed date, 11:59 PM ET.
If the agreement is officially reached before the resolution date, this market will resolve to "Yes," regardless of whether the ceasefire officially starts afterward.
Any form of informal agreement will not be considered an official ceasefire. Humanitarian pauses will not count toward the resolution of this market.
A peace deal or political framework will qualify if it includes a publicly announced and mutually agreed halt in military engagement, effective on a specific date. Frameworks or agreements that outline terms for a future peace but do not include an explicit, dated commitment to stop fighting will not count.
This market's resolution will be based on official announcements from both the Rapid Support Forces and the Sudanese Armed Forces; however, a wide consensus of credible media reporting stating an official ceasefire agreement between the Rapid Support Forces and the Sudanese Armed Forces has been reached will suffice.
If the agreement is officially reached before the resolution date, this market will resolve to "Yes," regardless of whether the ceasefire officially starts afterward.
Any form of informal agreement will not be considered an official ceasefire. Humanitarian pauses will not count toward the resolution of this market.
A peace deal or political framework will qualify if it includes a publicly announced and mutually agreed halt in military engagement, effective on a specific date. Frameworks or agreements that outline terms for a future peace but do not include an explicit, dated commitment to stop fighting will not count.
This market's resolution will be based on official announcements from both the Rapid Support Forces and the Sudanese Armed Forces; however, a wide consensus of credible media reporting stating an official ceasefire agreement between the Rapid Support Forces and the Sudanese Armed Forces has been reached will suffice.
マーケット開始日： Dec 22, 2025, 2:08 PM ET
音量
$100,730終了日
2026/12/31マーケット開始日
Dec 22, 2025, 2:08 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is an official ceasefire agreement, defined as a publicly announced and mutually agreed halt in military engagement, between the Rapid Support Forces (RSF) and the Sudanese Armed Forces (SAF) by the listed date, 11:59 PM ET.
If the agreement is officially reached before the resolution date, this market will resolve to "Yes," regardless of whether the ceasefire officially starts afterward.
Any form of informal agreement will not be considered an official ceasefire. Humanitarian pauses will not count toward the resolution of this market.
A peace deal or political framework will qualify if it includes a publicly announced and mutually agreed halt in military engagement, effective on a specific date. Frameworks or agreements that outline terms for a future peace but do not include an explicit, dated commitment to stop fighting will not count.
This market's resolution will be based on official announcements from both the Rapid Support Forces and the Sudanese Armed Forces; however, a wide consensus of credible media reporting stating an official ceasefire agreement between the Rapid Support Forces and the Sudanese Armed Forces has been reached will suffice.This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is an official ceasefire agreement, defined as a publicly announced and mutually agreed halt in military engagement, between the Rapid Support Forces (RSF) and the Sudanese Armed Forces (SAF) by December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET.
If the agreement is officially reached before the resolution date, this market will resolve to "Yes," regardless of whether the ceasefire officially starts afterward.
Any form of informal agreement will not be considered an official ceasefire. Humanitarian pauses will not count toward the resolution of this market.
A peace deal or political framework will qualify if it includes a publicly announced and mutually agreed halt in military engagement, effective on a specific date. Frameworks or agreements that outline terms for a future peace but do not include an explicit, dated commitment to stop fighting will not count.
This market's resolution will be based on official announcements from both the Rapid Support Forces and the Sudanese Armed Forces; however, a wide consensus of credible media reporting stating an official ceasefire agreement between the Rapid Support Forces and the Sudanese Armed Forces has been reached will suffice.The Sudan civil war between the Sudanese Armed Forces (SAF) and Rapid Support Forces (RSF) has entered its fourth year with no sustained ceasefire, as SAF consolidated control over Khartoum and surrounding areas while RSF retains strongholds in Darfur and parts of Kordofan. Mediation by the Quad (United States, Egypt, Saudi Arabia, UAE), Quintet (AU, IGAD, LAS, EU, UN), and other actors has produced repeated calls for a humanitarian truce followed by a permanent ceasefire and civilian-led political process, including a June 2026 joint statement endorsing the Berlin Principles and Sudanese stakeholder dialogue. However, both parties maintain preconditions, external arms flows persist, and recent proposals such as a three-month renewable truce from Sudanese civil forces have not advanced to agreement. With Security Council assessments describing breakthrough prospects as remote, trader pricing for near-term deadlines reflects the entrenched military dynamics and stalled negotiations.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is an official ceasefire agreement, defined as a publicly announced and mutually agreed halt in military engagement, between the Rapid Support Forces (RSF) and the Sudanese Armed Forces (SAF) by the listed date, 11:59 PM ET.
If the agreement is officially reached before the resolution date, this market will resolve to "Yes," regardless of whether the ceasefire officially starts afterward.
Any form of informal agreement will not be considered an official ceasefire. Humanitarian pauses will not count toward the resolution of this market.
A peace deal or political framework will qualify if it includes a publicly announced and mutually agreed halt in military engagement, effective on a specific date. Frameworks or agreements that outline terms for a future peace but do not include an explicit, dated commitment to stop fighting will not count.
This market's resolution will be based on official announcements from both the Rapid Support Forces and the Sudanese Armed Forces; however, a wide consensus of credible media reporting stating an official ceasefire agreement between the Rapid Support Forces and the Sudanese Armed Forces has been reached will suffice.
If the agreement is officially reached before the resolution date, this market will resolve to "Yes," regardless of whether the ceasefire officially starts afterward.
Any form of informal agreement will not be considered an official ceasefire. Humanitarian pauses will not count toward the resolution of this market.
A peace deal or political framework will qualify if it includes a publicly announced and mutually agreed halt in military engagement, effective on a specific date. Frameworks or agreements that outline terms for a future peace but do not include an explicit, dated commitment to stop fighting will not count.
This market's resolution will be based on official announcements from both the Rapid Support Forces and the Sudanese Armed Forces; however, a wide consensus of credible media reporting stating an official ceasefire agreement between the Rapid Support Forces and the Sudanese Armed Forces has been reached will suffice.
音量
$100,730終了日
2026/12/31マーケット開始日
Dec 22, 2025, 2:08 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...The Sudan civil war between the Sudanese Armed Forces (SAF) and Rapid Support Forces (RSF) has entered its fourth year with no sustained ceasefire, as SAF consolidated control over Khartoum and surrounding areas while RSF retains strongholds in Darfur and parts of Kordofan. Mediation by the Quad (United States, Egypt, Saudi Arabia, UAE), Quintet (AU, IGAD, LAS, EU, UN), and other actors has produced repeated calls for a humanitarian truce followed by a permanent ceasefire and civilian-led political process, including a June 2026 joint statement endorsing the Berlin Principles and Sudanese stakeholder dialogue. However, both parties maintain preconditions, external arms flows persist, and recent proposals such as a three-month renewable truce from Sudanese civil forces have not advanced to agreement. With Security Council assessments describing breakthrough prospects as remote, trader pricing for near-term deadlines reflects the entrenched military dynamics and stalled negotiations.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日
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