Traders assign an 85% probability that no country will expel an Israeli ambassador by December 31, reflecting the absence of new diplomatic ruptures since South Africa's January 2026 expulsion of Israel's chargé d'affaires, which prompted a reciprocal action. Subsequent developments, including Spain's March recall of its own envoy amid policy disagreements and Iran's March incentives for other states to take similar steps, produced no additional expulsions. Parliamentary motions and public calls in several nations have not translated into government decisions, and no major escalations in bilateral relations or multilateral pressure have emerged in recent months to alter this pattern. The current trader consensus aligns with the limited frequency of such actions over the past year.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日はい
16% 確率
$42,530 Vol.
$42,530 Vol.
2026/12/31
はい
16% 確率
$42,530 Vol.
$42,530 Vol.
2026/12/31
This market will resolve to “Yes” if any Israeli ambassador is expelled from their assigned country by the government of that country between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59: PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Any expulsion from a country where an Israeli ambassador is assigned as of the time of this market’s creation will qualify.
For the purposes of resolving this market, an official announcement that a Israeli ambassador will be or is being expelled will suffice regardless of whether or not the respective ambassador leaves the country within this market’s timeframe.
Qualifying announcements must be definitive, unambiguous, official statements issued by an authorized governmental person or entity.
Whether the ambassador resigns, is recalled, or otherwise departs voluntarily will have no bearing on the resolution of this market.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of Israel, including the Ministry of Foreign Affairs, as well as official information from the relevant expelling government; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Traders assign an 85% probability that no country will expel an Israeli ambassador by December 31, reflecting the absence of new diplomatic ruptures since South Africa's January 2026 expulsion of Israel's chargé d'affaires, which prompted a reciprocal action. Subsequent developments, including Spain's March recall of its own envoy amid policy disagreements and Iran's March incentives for other states to take similar steps, produced no additional expulsions. Parliamentary motions and public calls in several nations have not translated into government decisions, and no major escalations in bilateral relations or multilateral pressure have emerged in recent months to alter this pattern. The current trader consensus aligns with the limited frequency of such actions over the past year.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if any Israeli ambassador is expelled from their assigned country by the government of that country between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59: PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Any expulsion from a country where an Israeli ambassador is assigned as of the time of this market’s creation will qualify.
For the purposes of resolving this market, an official announcement that a Israeli ambassador will be or is being expelled will suffice regardless of whether or not the respective ambassador leaves the country within this market’s timeframe.
Qualifying announcements must be definitive, unambiguous, official statements issued by an authorized governmental person or entity.
Whether the ambassador resigns, is recalled, or otherwise departs voluntarily will have no bearing on the resolution of this market.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of Israel, including the Ministry of Foreign Affairs, as well as official information from the relevant expelling government; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Any expulsion from a country where an Israeli ambassador is assigned as of the time of this market’s creation will qualify.
For the purposes of resolving this market, an official announcement that a Israeli ambassador will be or is being expelled will suffice regardless of whether or not the respective ambassador leaves the country within this market’s timeframe.
Qualifying announcements must be definitive, unambiguous, official statements issued by an authorized governmental person or entity.
Whether the ambassador resigns, is recalled, or otherwise departs voluntarily will have no bearing on the resolution of this market.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of Israel, including the Ministry of Foreign Affairs, as well as official information from the relevant expelling government; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
マーケット開始日： Mar 31, 2026, 3:41 PM ET
音量
$42,530終了日
2026/12/31マーケット開始日
Mar 31, 2026, 3:41 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “Yes” if any Israeli ambassador is expelled from their assigned country by the government of that country between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59: PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Any expulsion from a country where an Israeli ambassador is assigned as of the time of this market’s creation will qualify.
For the purposes of resolving this market, an official announcement that a Israeli ambassador will be or is being expelled will suffice regardless of whether or not the respective ambassador leaves the country within this market’s timeframe.
Qualifying announcements must be definitive, unambiguous, official statements issued by an authorized governmental person or entity.
Whether the ambassador resigns, is recalled, or otherwise departs voluntarily will have no bearing on the resolution of this market.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of Israel, including the Ministry of Foreign Affairs, as well as official information from the relevant expelling government; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Traders assign an 85% probability that no country will expel an Israeli ambassador by December 31, reflecting the absence of new diplomatic ruptures since South Africa's January 2026 expulsion of Israel's chargé d'affaires, which prompted a reciprocal action. Subsequent developments, including Spain's March recall of its own envoy amid policy disagreements and Iran's March incentives for other states to take similar steps, produced no additional expulsions. Parliamentary motions and public calls in several nations have not translated into government decisions, and no major escalations in bilateral relations or multilateral pressure have emerged in recent months to alter this pattern. The current trader consensus aligns with the limited frequency of such actions over the past year.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if any Israeli ambassador is expelled from their assigned country by the government of that country between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59: PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Any expulsion from a country where an Israeli ambassador is assigned as of the time of this market’s creation will qualify.
For the purposes of resolving this market, an official announcement that a Israeli ambassador will be or is being expelled will suffice regardless of whether or not the respective ambassador leaves the country within this market’s timeframe.
Qualifying announcements must be definitive, unambiguous, official statements issued by an authorized governmental person or entity.
Whether the ambassador resigns, is recalled, or otherwise departs voluntarily will have no bearing on the resolution of this market.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of Israel, including the Ministry of Foreign Affairs, as well as official information from the relevant expelling government; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Any expulsion from a country where an Israeli ambassador is assigned as of the time of this market’s creation will qualify.
For the purposes of resolving this market, an official announcement that a Israeli ambassador will be or is being expelled will suffice regardless of whether or not the respective ambassador leaves the country within this market’s timeframe.
Qualifying announcements must be definitive, unambiguous, official statements issued by an authorized governmental person or entity.
Whether the ambassador resigns, is recalled, or otherwise departs voluntarily will have no bearing on the resolution of this market.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of Israel, including the Ministry of Foreign Affairs, as well as official information from the relevant expelling government; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
音量
$42,530終了日
2026/12/31マーケット開始日
Mar 31, 2026, 3:41 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Traders assign an 85% probability that no country will expel an Israeli ambassador by December 31, reflecting the absence of new diplomatic ruptures since South Africa's January 2026 expulsion of Israel's chargé d'affaires, which prompted a reciprocal action. Subsequent developments, including Spain's March recall of its own envoy amid policy disagreements and Iran's March incentives for other states to take similar steps, produced no additional expulsions. Parliamentary motions and public calls in several nations have not translated into government decisions, and no major escalations in bilateral relations or multilateral pressure have emerged in recent months to alter this pattern. The current trader consensus aligns with the limited frequency of such actions over the past year.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日
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