Diplomatic tensions between Israel and several nations persist amid the Gaza conflict and related flotilla incidents, yet no expulsions of Israeli ambassadors have occurred since early 2026. In May, the UK, France, Canada, and Poland summoned Israeli diplomats over the deportation of foreign activists, signaling disapproval without severing ties. Iran's March offer of Strait of Hormuz access to countries expelling Israeli or U.S. envoys produced no follow-through actions. Traders assign a 65.5% probability to no expulsions by year-end, reflecting the preference for recalls, summons, or reciprocal measures over outright expulsions, consistent with patterns where such steps risk bilateral retaliation and lack broad international momentum in the current period.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日Will any country expel an Israeli ambassador by December 31?
Will any country expel an Israeli ambassador by December 31?
$36,875 Vol.
$36,875 Vol.
2026/12/31
$36,875 Vol.
$36,875 Vol.
2026/12/31
This market will resolve to “Yes” if any Israeli ambassador is expelled from their assigned country by the government of that country between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59: PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Any expulsion from a country where an Israeli ambassador is assigned as of the time of this market’s creation will qualify.
For the purposes of resolving this market, an official announcement that a Israeli ambassador will be or is being expelled will suffice regardless of whether or not the respective ambassador leaves the country within this market’s timeframe.
Qualifying announcements must be definitive, unambiguous, official statements issued by an authorized governmental person or entity.
Whether the ambassador resigns, is recalled, or otherwise departs voluntarily will have no bearing on the resolution of this market.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of Israel, including the Ministry of Foreign Affairs, as well as official information from the relevant expelling government; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Diplomatic tensions between Israel and several nations persist amid the Gaza conflict and related flotilla incidents, yet no expulsions of Israeli ambassadors have occurred since early 2026. In May, the UK, France, Canada, and Poland summoned Israeli diplomats over the deportation of foreign activists, signaling disapproval without severing ties. Iran's March offer of Strait of Hormuz access to countries expelling Israeli or U.S. envoys produced no follow-through actions. Traders assign a 65.5% probability to no expulsions by year-end, reflecting the preference for recalls, summons, or reciprocal measures over outright expulsions, consistent with patterns where such steps risk bilateral retaliation and lack broad international momentum in the current period.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if any Israeli ambassador is expelled from their assigned country by the government of that country between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59: PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Any expulsion from a country where an Israeli ambassador is assigned as of the time of this market’s creation will qualify.
For the purposes of resolving this market, an official announcement that a Israeli ambassador will be or is being expelled will suffice regardless of whether or not the respective ambassador leaves the country within this market’s timeframe.
Qualifying announcements must be definitive, unambiguous, official statements issued by an authorized governmental person or entity.
Whether the ambassador resigns, is recalled, or otherwise departs voluntarily will have no bearing on the resolution of this market.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of Israel, including the Ministry of Foreign Affairs, as well as official information from the relevant expelling government; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Any expulsion from a country where an Israeli ambassador is assigned as of the time of this market’s creation will qualify.
For the purposes of resolving this market, an official announcement that a Israeli ambassador will be or is being expelled will suffice regardless of whether or not the respective ambassador leaves the country within this market’s timeframe.
Qualifying announcements must be definitive, unambiguous, official statements issued by an authorized governmental person or entity.
Whether the ambassador resigns, is recalled, or otherwise departs voluntarily will have no bearing on the resolution of this market.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of Israel, including the Ministry of Foreign Affairs, as well as official information from the relevant expelling government; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
マーケット開始日： Mar 31, 2026, 3:41 PM ET
音量
$36,875終了日
2026/12/31マーケット開始日
Mar 31, 2026, 3:41 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “Yes” if any Israeli ambassador is expelled from their assigned country by the government of that country between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59: PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Any expulsion from a country where an Israeli ambassador is assigned as of the time of this market’s creation will qualify.
For the purposes of resolving this market, an official announcement that a Israeli ambassador will be or is being expelled will suffice regardless of whether or not the respective ambassador leaves the country within this market’s timeframe.
Qualifying announcements must be definitive, unambiguous, official statements issued by an authorized governmental person or entity.
Whether the ambassador resigns, is recalled, or otherwise departs voluntarily will have no bearing on the resolution of this market.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of Israel, including the Ministry of Foreign Affairs, as well as official information from the relevant expelling government; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Diplomatic tensions between Israel and several nations persist amid the Gaza conflict and related flotilla incidents, yet no expulsions of Israeli ambassadors have occurred since early 2026. In May, the UK, France, Canada, and Poland summoned Israeli diplomats over the deportation of foreign activists, signaling disapproval without severing ties. Iran's March offer of Strait of Hormuz access to countries expelling Israeli or U.S. envoys produced no follow-through actions. Traders assign a 65.5% probability to no expulsions by year-end, reflecting the preference for recalls, summons, or reciprocal measures over outright expulsions, consistent with patterns where such steps risk bilateral retaliation and lack broad international momentum in the current period.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if any Israeli ambassador is expelled from their assigned country by the government of that country between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59: PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Any expulsion from a country where an Israeli ambassador is assigned as of the time of this market’s creation will qualify.
For the purposes of resolving this market, an official announcement that a Israeli ambassador will be or is being expelled will suffice regardless of whether or not the respective ambassador leaves the country within this market’s timeframe.
Qualifying announcements must be definitive, unambiguous, official statements issued by an authorized governmental person or entity.
Whether the ambassador resigns, is recalled, or otherwise departs voluntarily will have no bearing on the resolution of this market.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of Israel, including the Ministry of Foreign Affairs, as well as official information from the relevant expelling government; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Any expulsion from a country where an Israeli ambassador is assigned as of the time of this market’s creation will qualify.
For the purposes of resolving this market, an official announcement that a Israeli ambassador will be or is being expelled will suffice regardless of whether or not the respective ambassador leaves the country within this market’s timeframe.
Qualifying announcements must be definitive, unambiguous, official statements issued by an authorized governmental person or entity.
Whether the ambassador resigns, is recalled, or otherwise departs voluntarily will have no bearing on the resolution of this market.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of Israel, including the Ministry of Foreign Affairs, as well as official information from the relevant expelling government; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
音量
$36,875終了日
2026/12/31マーケット開始日
Mar 31, 2026, 3:41 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Diplomatic tensions between Israel and several nations persist amid the Gaza conflict and related flotilla incidents, yet no expulsions of Israeli ambassadors have occurred since early 2026. In May, the UK, France, Canada, and Poland summoned Israeli diplomats over the deportation of foreign activists, signaling disapproval without severing ties. Iran's March offer of Strait of Hormuz access to countries expelling Israeli or U.S. envoys produced no follow-through actions. Traders assign a 65.5% probability to no expulsions by year-end, reflecting the preference for recalls, summons, or reciprocal measures over outright expulsions, consistent with patterns where such steps risk bilateral retaliation and lack broad international momentum in the current period.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日
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