Recent polling for Israel's October 27, 2026 Knesset election shows Benjamin Netanyahu's right-wing bloc projected at roughly 48–53 seats and the main opposition near 58–62 seats, with neither side consistently securing the 61-seat majority needed to govern outright. Traders nonetheless assign "No" a 66% implied probability because Israeli elections have historically produced stable bloc alignments, right-wing parties have maintained coalition discipline across prior cycles, and smaller lists near the 3.25% threshold can shift marginal seats without fracturing negotiations. The Knesset dissolution in July and candidate list deadlines in September remain key near-term variables, alongside any security developments that could alter turnout or voter priorities before election day.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日34% 確率
新規
新規
2026/10/27
34% 確率
新規
新規
2026/10/27
Legislative elections are scheduled to be held in Israel in 2026.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if, following the next election for the Israeli Knesset, a new Knesset election is called prior to any government being formed. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Government formation refers to a political coalition or government being approved by an investiture vote of the Knesset.
An election will be considered called if the Knesset is dissolved, or if a new Knesset election is otherwise officially announced by the Israeli government.
If a government is formed following the election before a new Knesset election is called, this market will immediately resolve to “No”.
The failure of a government formation attempt will not alone qualify if no new Knesset election has been called.
If neither occurs by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET this market will resolve to “No”.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of Israel; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Recent polling for Israel's October 27, 2026 Knesset election shows Benjamin Netanyahu's right-wing bloc projected at roughly 48–53 seats and the main opposition near 58–62 seats, with neither side consistently securing the 61-seat majority needed to govern outright. Traders nonetheless assign "No" a 66% implied probability because Israeli elections have historically produced stable bloc alignments, right-wing parties have maintained coalition discipline across prior cycles, and smaller lists near the 3.25% threshold can shift marginal seats without fracturing negotiations. The Knesset dissolution in July and candidate list deadlines in September remain key near-term variables, alongside any security developments that could alter turnout or voter priorities before election day.
Legislative elections are scheduled to be held in Israel in 2026.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if, following the next election for the Israeli Knesset, a new Knesset election is called prior to any government being formed. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Government formation refers to a political coalition or government being approved by an investiture vote of the Knesset.
An election will be considered called if the Knesset is dissolved, or if a new Knesset election is otherwise officially announced by the Israeli government.
If a government is formed following the election before a new Knesset election is called, this market will immediately resolve to “No”.
The failure of a government formation attempt will not alone qualify if no new Knesset election has been called.
If neither occurs by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET this market will resolve to “No”.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of Israel; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if, following the next election for the Israeli Knesset, a new Knesset election is called prior to any government being formed. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Government formation refers to a political coalition or government being approved by an investiture vote of the Knesset.
An election will be considered called if the Knesset is dissolved, or if a new Knesset election is otherwise officially announced by the Israeli government.
If a government is formed following the election before a new Knesset election is called, this market will immediately resolve to “No”.
The failure of a government formation attempt will not alone qualify if no new Knesset election has been called.
If neither occurs by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET this market will resolve to “No”.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of Israel; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
マーケット開始日： Apr 29, 2026, 7:30 PM ET
音量
$2,574終了日
2026/10/27マーケット開始日
Apr 29, 2026, 7:30 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Legislative elections are scheduled to be held in Israel in 2026.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if, following the next election for the Israeli Knesset, a new Knesset election is called prior to any government being formed. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Government formation refers to a political coalition or government being approved by an investiture vote of the Knesset.
An election will be considered called if the Knesset is dissolved, or if a new Knesset election is otherwise officially announced by the Israeli government.
If a government is formed following the election before a new Knesset election is called, this market will immediately resolve to “No”.
The failure of a government formation attempt will not alone qualify if no new Knesset election has been called.
If neither occurs by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET this market will resolve to “No”.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of Israel; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Recent polling for Israel's October 27, 2026 Knesset election shows Benjamin Netanyahu's right-wing bloc projected at roughly 48–53 seats and the main opposition near 58–62 seats, with neither side consistently securing the 61-seat majority needed to govern outright. Traders nonetheless assign "No" a 66% implied probability because Israeli elections have historically produced stable bloc alignments, right-wing parties have maintained coalition discipline across prior cycles, and smaller lists near the 3.25% threshold can shift marginal seats without fracturing negotiations. The Knesset dissolution in July and candidate list deadlines in September remain key near-term variables, alongside any security developments that could alter turnout or voter priorities before election day.
Legislative elections are scheduled to be held in Israel in 2026.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if, following the next election for the Israeli Knesset, a new Knesset election is called prior to any government being formed. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Government formation refers to a political coalition or government being approved by an investiture vote of the Knesset.
An election will be considered called if the Knesset is dissolved, or if a new Knesset election is otherwise officially announced by the Israeli government.
If a government is formed following the election before a new Knesset election is called, this market will immediately resolve to “No”.
The failure of a government formation attempt will not alone qualify if no new Knesset election has been called.
If neither occurs by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET this market will resolve to “No”.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of Israel; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if, following the next election for the Israeli Knesset, a new Knesset election is called prior to any government being formed. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Government formation refers to a political coalition or government being approved by an investiture vote of the Knesset.
An election will be considered called if the Knesset is dissolved, or if a new Knesset election is otherwise officially announced by the Israeli government.
If a government is formed following the election before a new Knesset election is called, this market will immediately resolve to “No”.
The failure of a government formation attempt will not alone qualify if no new Knesset election has been called.
If neither occurs by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET this market will resolve to “No”.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of Israel; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
音量
$2,574終了日
2026/10/27マーケット開始日
Apr 29, 2026, 7:30 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Recent polling for Israel's October 27, 2026 Knesset election shows Benjamin Netanyahu's right-wing bloc projected at roughly 48–53 seats and the main opposition near 58–62 seats, with neither side consistently securing the 61-seat majority needed to govern outright. Traders nonetheless assign "No" a 66% implied probability because Israeli elections have historically produced stable bloc alignments, right-wing parties have maintained coalition discipline across prior cycles, and smaller lists near the 3.25% threshold can shift marginal seats without fracturing negotiations. The Knesset dissolution in July and candidate list deadlines in September remain key near-term variables, alongside any security developments that could alter turnout or voter priorities before election day.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日
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