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地政学·ガザ

Will the flotilla reach Gaza by May 31?

icon for Will the flotilla reach Gaza by May 31?
地政学·ガザ

Will the flotilla reach Gaza by May 31?

1% 確率
Polymarket
新規
1% 確率
Polymarket
新規
A flotilla organized by the Global Sumud Flotilla, among others, set sail from Spain on April 15, 2026 to deliver aid to Gaza (see: https://apnews.com/article/global-sumud-flotilla-gaza-aid-spain-israel-94b09412fdcb1a0fd6a6e0c981479539). This market will resolve to “Yes” if any members of this flotilla arrive in Gaza by May 31, 2026 (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. “Arriving in Gaza” refers to disembarking from a vessel that is part of the flotilla into Gaza’s land territory. The primary resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.Trader consensus reflects near-certainty that the Global Sumud Flotilla and Freedom Flotilla Coalition vessels will not reach Gaza by May 31, driven by Israel's consistent enforcement of its naval blockade on the Gaza Strip. In late April 2026, IDF forces intercepted over 20 boats near Crete, detaining around 175 activists—released in Greece with no humanitarian aid found aboard—marking the second such action that month. Fresh departures from Turkey on May 13-14 face similar prospects, given Israel's naval superiority and historical precedent of blocking all major flotillas since 2010. UN calls for activist releases have yielded no policy shift. Realistic shifts require unprecedented diplomatic intervention, IDF stand-down, or overwhelming flotilla scale, though none appear imminent amid ongoing blockade.

A flotilla organized by the Global Sumud Flotilla, among others, set sail from Spain on April 15, 2026 to deliver aid to Gaza (see: https://apnews.com/article/global-sumud-flotilla-gaza-aid-spain-israel-94b09412fdcb1a0fd6a6e0c981479539).

This market will resolve to “Yes” if any members of this flotilla arrive in Gaza by May 31, 2026 (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

“Arriving in Gaza” refers to disembarking from a vessel that is part of the flotilla into Gaza’s land territory.

The primary resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
音量
$4,812
終了日
2026/05/31
マーケット開始日
Apr 20, 2026, 3:31 PM ET

Resolver

0x65070BE91...
A flotilla organized by the Global Sumud Flotilla, among others, set sail from Spain on April 15, 2026 to deliver aid to Gaza (see: https://apnews.com/article/global-sumud-flotilla-gaza-aid-spain-israel-94b09412fdcb1a0fd6a6e0c981479539). This market will resolve to “Yes” if any members of this flotilla arrive in Gaza by May 31, 2026 (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. “Arriving in Gaza” refers to disembarking from a vessel that is part of the flotilla into Gaza’s land territory. The primary resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
A flotilla organized by the Global Sumud Flotilla, among others, set sail from Spain on April 15, 2026 to deliver aid to Gaza (see: https://apnews.com/article/global-sumud-flotilla-gaza-aid-spain-israel-94b09412fdcb1a0fd6a6e0c981479539). This market will resolve to “Yes” if any members of this flotilla arrive in Gaza by May 31, 2026 (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. “Arriving in Gaza” refers to disembarking from a vessel that is part of the flotilla into Gaza’s land territory. The primary resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.Trader consensus reflects near-certainty that the Global Sumud Flotilla and Freedom Flotilla Coalition vessels will not reach Gaza by May 31, driven by Israel's consistent enforcement of its naval blockade on the Gaza Strip. In late April 2026, IDF forces intercepted over 20 boats near Crete, detaining around 175 activists—released in Greece with no humanitarian aid found aboard—marking the second such action that month. Fresh departures from Turkey on May 13-14 face similar prospects, given Israel's naval superiority and historical precedent of blocking all major flotillas since 2010. UN calls for activist releases have yielded no policy shift. Realistic shifts require unprecedented diplomatic intervention, IDF stand-down, or overwhelming flotilla scale, though none appear imminent amid ongoing blockade.

A flotilla organized by the Global Sumud Flotilla, among others, set sail from Spain on April 15, 2026 to deliver aid to Gaza (see: https://apnews.com/article/global-sumud-flotilla-gaza-aid-spain-israel-94b09412fdcb1a0fd6a6e0c981479539).

This market will resolve to “Yes” if any members of this flotilla arrive in Gaza by May 31, 2026 (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

“Arriving in Gaza” refers to disembarking from a vessel that is part of the flotilla into Gaza’s land territory.

The primary resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
音量
$4,812
終了日
2026/05/31
マーケット開始日
Apr 20, 2026, 3:31 PM ET

Resolver

0x65070BE91...
A flotilla organized by the Global Sumud Flotilla, among others, set sail from Spain on April 15, 2026 to deliver aid to Gaza (see: https://apnews.com/article/global-sumud-flotilla-gaza-aid-spain-israel-94b09412fdcb1a0fd6a6e0c981479539). This market will resolve to “Yes” if any members of this flotilla arrive in Gaza by May 31, 2026 (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. “Arriving in Gaza” refers to disembarking from a vessel that is part of the flotilla into Gaza’s land territory. The primary resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.

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よくある質問

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