Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects near-certainty that the Iranian regime will endure beyond May 31, driven by its proven resilience amid severe pressures. The regime weathered massive January 2026 protests through brutal IRGC and Basij crackdowns, resulting in thousands of deaths and subsequent executions, while surviving U.S.-Israeli airstrikes and a naval blockade in the Strait of Hormuz that prompted a fragile ceasefire on April 8. No renewed nationwide uprisings have materialized despite ongoing economic deterioration and shaky diplomatic talks, with U.S. Vice President Vance noting progress as recently as May 13 even as Tehran remains defiant. With just over two weeks remaining, traders discount imminent collapse absent mass defections, military escalation, or spontaneous protests overwhelming security forces.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日はい
$19,344,971 Vol.
$19,344,971 Vol.
2026/05/31
はい
$19,344,971 Vol.
$19,344,971 Vol.
2026/05/31
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Islamic Republic of Iran’s current ruling regime is overthrown, collapsed, or otherwise ceases to govern by May 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This requires a broad consensus of reporting indicating that core structures of the Islamic Republic (e.g. the office of the Supreme Leader, the Guardian Council, IRGC control under clerical authority) have been dissolved, incapacitated, or replaced by a fundamentally different governing system or otherwise lost de facto power over a majority of the population of Iran. This could occur via revolution, civil war, military coup, or voluntary abdication, but only qualifies if the Islamic Republic no longer exercises sovereign power.
Routine political events such as elections, reforms, or leadership succession do not qualify. Internal coups or power shifts that preserve the Islamic Republic’s core structures also do not qualify. Only a clear break in continuity—such as a new provisional government, revolutionary council, or constitution replacing the Islamic Republic will qualify.
Partial loss of territory or challenges from rebel or exile groups will not qualify unless the Islamic Republic no longer administers the majority of the Iranian population within Iran.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting. Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects near-certainty that the Iranian regime will endure beyond May 31, driven by its proven resilience amid severe pressures. The regime weathered massive January 2026 protests through brutal IRGC and Basij crackdowns, resulting in thousands of deaths and subsequent executions, while surviving U.S.-Israeli airstrikes and a naval blockade in the Strait of Hormuz that prompted a fragile ceasefire on April 8. No renewed nationwide uprisings have materialized despite ongoing economic deterioration and shaky diplomatic talks, with U.S. Vice President Vance noting progress as recently as May 13 even as Tehran remains defiant. With just over two weeks remaining, traders discount imminent collapse absent mass defections, military escalation, or spontaneous protests overwhelming security forces.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Islamic Republic of Iran’s current ruling regime is overthrown, collapsed, or otherwise ceases to govern by May 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This requires a broad consensus of reporting indicating that core structures of the Islamic Republic (e.g. the office of the Supreme Leader, the Guardian Council, IRGC control under clerical authority) have been dissolved, incapacitated, or replaced by a fundamentally different governing system or otherwise lost de facto power over a majority of the population of Iran. This could occur via revolution, civil war, military coup, or voluntary abdication, but only qualifies if the Islamic Republic no longer exercises sovereign power.
Routine political events such as elections, reforms, or leadership succession do not qualify. Internal coups or power shifts that preserve the Islamic Republic’s core structures also do not qualify. Only a clear break in continuity—such as a new provisional government, revolutionary council, or constitution replacing the Islamic Republic will qualify.
Partial loss of territory or challenges from rebel or exile groups will not qualify unless the Islamic Republic no longer administers the majority of the Iranian population within Iran.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
This requires a broad consensus of reporting indicating that core structures of the Islamic Republic (e.g. the office of the Supreme Leader, the Guardian Council, IRGC control under clerical authority) have been dissolved, incapacitated, or replaced by a fundamentally different governing system or otherwise lost de facto power over a majority of the population of Iran. This could occur via revolution, civil war, military coup, or voluntary abdication, but only qualifies if the Islamic Republic no longer exercises sovereign power.
Routine political events such as elections, reforms, or leadership succession do not qualify. Internal coups or power shifts that preserve the Islamic Republic’s core structures also do not qualify. Only a clear break in continuity—such as a new provisional government, revolutionary council, or constitution replacing the Islamic Republic will qualify.
Partial loss of territory or challenges from rebel or exile groups will not qualify unless the Islamic Republic no longer administers the majority of the Iranian population within Iran.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
マーケット開始日： Apr 1, 2026, 12:20 PM ET
音量
$19,344,971終了日
2026/05/31マーケット開始日
Apr 1, 2026, 12:20 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Islamic Republic of Iran’s current ruling regime is overthrown, collapsed, or otherwise ceases to govern by May 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This requires a broad consensus of reporting indicating that core structures of the Islamic Republic (e.g. the office of the Supreme Leader, the Guardian Council, IRGC control under clerical authority) have been dissolved, incapacitated, or replaced by a fundamentally different governing system or otherwise lost de facto power over a majority of the population of Iran. This could occur via revolution, civil war, military coup, or voluntary abdication, but only qualifies if the Islamic Republic no longer exercises sovereign power.
Routine political events such as elections, reforms, or leadership succession do not qualify. Internal coups or power shifts that preserve the Islamic Republic’s core structures also do not qualify. Only a clear break in continuity—such as a new provisional government, revolutionary council, or constitution replacing the Islamic Republic will qualify.
Partial loss of territory or challenges from rebel or exile groups will not qualify unless the Islamic Republic no longer administers the majority of the Iranian population within Iran.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting. Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects near-certainty that the Iranian regime will endure beyond May 31, driven by its proven resilience amid severe pressures. The regime weathered massive January 2026 protests through brutal IRGC and Basij crackdowns, resulting in thousands of deaths and subsequent executions, while surviving U.S.-Israeli airstrikes and a naval blockade in the Strait of Hormuz that prompted a fragile ceasefire on April 8. No renewed nationwide uprisings have materialized despite ongoing economic deterioration and shaky diplomatic talks, with U.S. Vice President Vance noting progress as recently as May 13 even as Tehran remains defiant. With just over two weeks remaining, traders discount imminent collapse absent mass defections, military escalation, or spontaneous protests overwhelming security forces.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Islamic Republic of Iran’s current ruling regime is overthrown, collapsed, or otherwise ceases to govern by May 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This requires a broad consensus of reporting indicating that core structures of the Islamic Republic (e.g. the office of the Supreme Leader, the Guardian Council, IRGC control under clerical authority) have been dissolved, incapacitated, or replaced by a fundamentally different governing system or otherwise lost de facto power over a majority of the population of Iran. This could occur via revolution, civil war, military coup, or voluntary abdication, but only qualifies if the Islamic Republic no longer exercises sovereign power.
Routine political events such as elections, reforms, or leadership succession do not qualify. Internal coups or power shifts that preserve the Islamic Republic’s core structures also do not qualify. Only a clear break in continuity—such as a new provisional government, revolutionary council, or constitution replacing the Islamic Republic will qualify.
Partial loss of territory or challenges from rebel or exile groups will not qualify unless the Islamic Republic no longer administers the majority of the Iranian population within Iran.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
This requires a broad consensus of reporting indicating that core structures of the Islamic Republic (e.g. the office of the Supreme Leader, the Guardian Council, IRGC control under clerical authority) have been dissolved, incapacitated, or replaced by a fundamentally different governing system or otherwise lost de facto power over a majority of the population of Iran. This could occur via revolution, civil war, military coup, or voluntary abdication, but only qualifies if the Islamic Republic no longer exercises sovereign power.
Routine political events such as elections, reforms, or leadership succession do not qualify. Internal coups or power shifts that preserve the Islamic Republic’s core structures also do not qualify. Only a clear break in continuity—such as a new provisional government, revolutionary council, or constitution replacing the Islamic Republic will qualify.
Partial loss of territory or challenges from rebel or exile groups will not qualify unless the Islamic Republic no longer administers the majority of the Iranian population within Iran.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
音量
$19,344,975終了日
2026/05/31マーケット開始日
Apr 1, 2026, 12:20 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects near-certainty that the Iranian regime will endure beyond May 31, driven by its proven resilience amid severe pressures. The regime weathered massive January 2026 protests through brutal IRGC and Basij crackdowns, resulting in thousands of deaths and subsequent executions, while surviving U.S.-Israeli airstrikes and a naval blockade in the Strait of Hormuz that prompted a fragile ceasefire on April 8. No renewed nationwide uprisings have materialized despite ongoing economic deterioration and shaky diplomatic talks, with U.S. Vice President Vance noting progress as recently as May 13 even as Tehran remains defiant. With just over two weeks remaining, traders discount imminent collapse absent mass defections, military escalation, or spontaneous protests overwhelming security forces.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日
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