Trader sentiment on whether Iran's Supreme Leader Mojtaba Khamenei leaves the country hinges on unverified health rumors and regime instability amid US-Iran ceasefire talks. Appointed successor after his father Ali Khamenei's death in March 2026 airstrikes, Mojtaba has made no public appearances, with reports of severe facial burns, leg injuries, and possible incapacitation in a Qom hideout, delegating authority to IRGC generals. President Pezeshkian claimed a May 7 meeting to dispel death speculation, but experts cite faltering Islamabad negotiations as risks for elite exile to Russia Assad-style. Absent confirmed departure via official channels or media, traders price low odds despite escalation signals.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日$1,122,796 Vol.
2026/05/31
5月31日
1%
6月30日
3%
$1,122,796 Vol.
5月31日
$101,540 Vol.
1%
6月30日
$49,647 Vol.
3%
This market will resolve to "Yes" if it is confirmed that Mojtaba Khamenei has left Iran for any length of time by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
In cases where Mojtaba Khamenei may have exited Iranian airspace on a plane, he must be confirmed to have exited the plane in a country other than Iran for this market to resolve to "Yes". If Mojtaba Khamenei exits Iranian maritime territory on a boat to international waters, this market may resolve to "Yes".
If it is not confirmed by the resolution date that Mojtaba Khamenei left Iran, this market will resolve to "No".
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.Trader sentiment on whether Iran's Supreme Leader Mojtaba Khamenei leaves the country hinges on unverified health rumors and regime instability amid US-Iran ceasefire talks. Appointed successor after his father Ali Khamenei's death in March 2026 airstrikes, Mojtaba has made no public appearances, with reports of severe facial burns, leg injuries, and possible incapacitation in a Qom hideout, delegating authority to IRGC generals. President Pezeshkian claimed a May 7 meeting to dispel death speculation, but experts cite faltering Islamabad negotiations as risks for elite exile to Russia Assad-style. Absent confirmed departure via official channels or media, traders price low odds despite escalation signals.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if it is confirmed that Mojtaba Khamenei has left Iran for any length of time by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
In cases where Mojtaba Khamenei may have exited Iranian airspace on a plane, he must be confirmed to have exited the plane in a country other than Iran for this market to resolve to "Yes". If Mojtaba Khamenei exits Iranian maritime territory on a boat to international waters, this market may resolve to "Yes".
If it is not confirmed by the resolution date that Mojtaba Khamenei left Iran, this market will resolve to "No".
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
In cases where Mojtaba Khamenei may have exited Iranian airspace on a plane, he must be confirmed to have exited the plane in a country other than Iran for this market to resolve to "Yes". If Mojtaba Khamenei exits Iranian maritime territory on a boat to international waters, this market may resolve to "Yes".
If it is not confirmed by the resolution date that Mojtaba Khamenei left Iran, this market will resolve to "No".
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
マーケット開始日： Mar 24, 2026, 4:24 PM ET
音量
$1,122,796終了日
2026/04/30マーケット開始日
Mar 24, 2026, 4:24 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if it is confirmed that Mojtaba Khamenei has left Iran for any length of time by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
In cases where Mojtaba Khamenei may have exited Iranian airspace on a plane, he must be confirmed to have exited the plane in a country other than Iran for this market to resolve to "Yes". If Mojtaba Khamenei exits Iranian maritime territory on a boat to international waters, this market may resolve to "Yes".
If it is not confirmed by the resolution date that Mojtaba Khamenei left Iran, this market will resolve to "No".
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.Trader sentiment on whether Iran's Supreme Leader Mojtaba Khamenei leaves the country hinges on unverified health rumors and regime instability amid US-Iran ceasefire talks. Appointed successor after his father Ali Khamenei's death in March 2026 airstrikes, Mojtaba has made no public appearances, with reports of severe facial burns, leg injuries, and possible incapacitation in a Qom hideout, delegating authority to IRGC generals. President Pezeshkian claimed a May 7 meeting to dispel death speculation, but experts cite faltering Islamabad negotiations as risks for elite exile to Russia Assad-style. Absent confirmed departure via official channels or media, traders price low odds despite escalation signals.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if it is confirmed that Mojtaba Khamenei has left Iran for any length of time by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
In cases where Mojtaba Khamenei may have exited Iranian airspace on a plane, he must be confirmed to have exited the plane in a country other than Iran for this market to resolve to "Yes". If Mojtaba Khamenei exits Iranian maritime territory on a boat to international waters, this market may resolve to "Yes".
If it is not confirmed by the resolution date that Mojtaba Khamenei left Iran, this market will resolve to "No".
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
In cases where Mojtaba Khamenei may have exited Iranian airspace on a plane, he must be confirmed to have exited the plane in a country other than Iran for this market to resolve to "Yes". If Mojtaba Khamenei exits Iranian maritime territory on a boat to international waters, this market may resolve to "Yes".
If it is not confirmed by the resolution date that Mojtaba Khamenei left Iran, this market will resolve to "No".
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
音量
$1,122,796終了日
2026/04/30マーケット開始日
Mar 24, 2026, 4:24 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Trader sentiment on whether Iran's Supreme Leader Mojtaba Khamenei leaves the country hinges on unverified health rumors and regime instability amid US-Iran ceasefire talks. Appointed successor after his father Ali Khamenei's death in March 2026 airstrikes, Mojtaba has made no public appearances, with reports of severe facial burns, leg injuries, and possible incapacitation in a Qom hideout, delegating authority to IRGC generals. President Pezeshkian claimed a May 7 meeting to dispel death speculation, but experts cite faltering Islamabad negotiations as risks for elite exile to Russia Assad-style. Absent confirmed departure via official channels or media, traders price low odds despite escalation signals.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日
外部リンクに注意してください。
外部リンクに注意してください。
よくある質問