**The 93.8% “No” odds reflect the absence of any active push by KRG leadership for a unilateral independence declaration before the end of 2026, combined with ongoing emphasis on stability inside the Iraqi federal framework.** Recent statements from Prime Minister Masrour Barzani, including an August 2026 Al Jazeera interview, stress the KRG’s desire to avoid entanglement in regional conflicts such as the U.S.-Israel-Iran war and to support Baghdad’s efforts to consolidate state control over weapons. KRG activities in mid-2026 have centered on internal reforms, including U.S.-backed Peshmerga unification with a September 2026 deadline, economic recovery, and participation in events like U.S. independence anniversary commemorations, rather than secession moves. The 2017 referendum’s aftermath—territorial losses, international opposition from Iraq, Turkey, and Iran, and Baghdad’s legal rejection—continues to shape caution, with no new parliamentary votes, leadership announcements, or constitutional processes signaling a fresh independence push. Traders price the market as reflecting these constraints and the priority on maintaining autonomy within Iraq amid broader regional pressures.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日はい
6% 確率
$272,659 Vol.
$272,659 Vol.
2026/12/30
はい
6% 確率
$272,659 Vol.
$272,659 Vol.
2026/12/30
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Kurdistan Regional Government (KRG), or a ruling party, coalition, or executive official of the KRG, formally declares the creation of a new independent state separate from Iraq and asserts governing authority over a specified territory within Iraq by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A qualifying public announcement alone is sufficient for a "Yes" resolution, regardless of whether governing authority is actually established, maintained, or recognized.
A declaration must include a clear public statement by the organization or its leadership announcing the establishment of an independent political entity separate from Iraq and claiming governmental authority over an identified geographic area previously under Iraqi governance.
The claimed territory does not need to be precisely defined but must be at least partially specified. A majority of the claimed territory must lie within the internationally recognized borders of Iraq as they existed at the time of this market’s creation.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.**The 93.8% “No” odds reflect the absence of any active push by KRG leadership for a unilateral independence declaration before the end of 2026, combined with ongoing emphasis on stability inside the Iraqi federal framework.**
Recent statements from Prime Minister Masrour Barzani, including an August 2026 Al Jazeera interview, stress the KRG’s desire to avoid entanglement in regional conflicts such as the U.S.-Israel-Iran war and to support Baghdad’s efforts to consolidate state control over weapons. KRG activities in mid-2026 have centered on internal reforms, including U.S.-backed Peshmerga unification with a September 2026 deadline, economic recovery, and participation in events like U.S. independence anniversary commemorations, rather than secession moves.
The 2017 referendum’s aftermath—territorial losses, international opposition from Iraq, Turkey, and Iran, and Baghdad’s legal rejection—continues to shape caution, with no new parliamentary votes, leadership announcements, or constitutional processes signaling a fresh independence push. Traders price the market as reflecting these constraints and the priority on maintaining autonomy within Iraq amid broader regional pressures.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Kurdistan Regional Government (KRG), or a ruling party, coalition, or executive official of the KRG, formally declares the creation of a new independent state separate from Iraq and asserts governing authority over a specified territory within Iraq by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A qualifying public announcement alone is sufficient for a "Yes" resolution, regardless of whether governing authority is actually established, maintained, or recognized.
A declaration must include a clear public statement by the organization or its leadership announcing the establishment of an independent political entity separate from Iraq and claiming governmental authority over an identified geographic area previously under Iraqi governance.
The claimed territory does not need to be precisely defined but must be at least partially specified. A majority of the claimed territory must lie within the internationally recognized borders of Iraq as they existed at the time of this market’s creation.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
A qualifying public announcement alone is sufficient for a "Yes" resolution, regardless of whether governing authority is actually established, maintained, or recognized.
A declaration must include a clear public statement by the organization or its leadership announcing the establishment of an independent political entity separate from Iraq and claiming governmental authority over an identified geographic area previously under Iraqi governance.
The claimed territory does not need to be precisely defined but must be at least partially specified. A majority of the claimed territory must lie within the internationally recognized borders of Iraq as they existed at the time of this market’s creation.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
マーケット開始日： May 1, 2026, 6:08 PM ET
音量
$272,659終了日
2026/12/31マーケット開始日
May 1, 2026, 6:08 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Kurdistan Regional Government (KRG), or a ruling party, coalition, or executive official of the KRG, formally declares the creation of a new independent state separate from Iraq and asserts governing authority over a specified territory within Iraq by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A qualifying public announcement alone is sufficient for a "Yes" resolution, regardless of whether governing authority is actually established, maintained, or recognized.
A declaration must include a clear public statement by the organization or its leadership announcing the establishment of an independent political entity separate from Iraq and claiming governmental authority over an identified geographic area previously under Iraqi governance.
The claimed territory does not need to be precisely defined but must be at least partially specified. A majority of the claimed territory must lie within the internationally recognized borders of Iraq as they existed at the time of this market’s creation.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.**The 93.8% “No” odds reflect the absence of any active push by KRG leadership for a unilateral independence declaration before the end of 2026, combined with ongoing emphasis on stability inside the Iraqi federal framework.**
Recent statements from Prime Minister Masrour Barzani, including an August 2026 Al Jazeera interview, stress the KRG’s desire to avoid entanglement in regional conflicts such as the U.S.-Israel-Iran war and to support Baghdad’s efforts to consolidate state control over weapons. KRG activities in mid-2026 have centered on internal reforms, including U.S.-backed Peshmerga unification with a September 2026 deadline, economic recovery, and participation in events like U.S. independence anniversary commemorations, rather than secession moves.
The 2017 referendum’s aftermath—territorial losses, international opposition from Iraq, Turkey, and Iran, and Baghdad’s legal rejection—continues to shape caution, with no new parliamentary votes, leadership announcements, or constitutional processes signaling a fresh independence push. Traders price the market as reflecting these constraints and the priority on maintaining autonomy within Iraq amid broader regional pressures.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Kurdistan Regional Government (KRG), or a ruling party, coalition, or executive official of the KRG, formally declares the creation of a new independent state separate from Iraq and asserts governing authority over a specified territory within Iraq by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A qualifying public announcement alone is sufficient for a "Yes" resolution, regardless of whether governing authority is actually established, maintained, or recognized.
A declaration must include a clear public statement by the organization or its leadership announcing the establishment of an independent political entity separate from Iraq and claiming governmental authority over an identified geographic area previously under Iraqi governance.
The claimed territory does not need to be precisely defined but must be at least partially specified. A majority of the claimed territory must lie within the internationally recognized borders of Iraq as they existed at the time of this market’s creation.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
A qualifying public announcement alone is sufficient for a "Yes" resolution, regardless of whether governing authority is actually established, maintained, or recognized.
A declaration must include a clear public statement by the organization or its leadership announcing the establishment of an independent political entity separate from Iraq and claiming governmental authority over an identified geographic area previously under Iraqi governance.
The claimed territory does not need to be precisely defined but must be at least partially specified. A majority of the claimed territory must lie within the internationally recognized borders of Iraq as they existed at the time of this market’s creation.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
音量
$272,659終了日
2026/12/31マーケット開始日
May 1, 2026, 6:08 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...**The 93.8% “No” odds reflect the absence of any active push by KRG leadership for a unilateral independence declaration before the end of 2026, combined with ongoing emphasis on stability inside the Iraqi federal framework.** Recent statements from Prime Minister Masrour Barzani, including an August 2026 Al Jazeera interview, stress the KRG’s desire to avoid entanglement in regional conflicts such as the U.S.-Israel-Iran war and to support Baghdad’s efforts to consolidate state control over weapons. KRG activities in mid-2026 have centered on internal reforms, including U.S.-backed Peshmerga unification with a September 2026 deadline, economic recovery, and participation in events like U.S. independence anniversary commemorations, rather than secession moves. The 2017 referendum’s aftermath—territorial losses, international opposition from Iraq, Turkey, and Iran, and Baghdad’s legal rejection—continues to shape caution, with no new parliamentary votes, leadership announcements, or constitutional processes signaling a fresh independence push. Traders price the market as reflecting these constraints and the priority on maintaining autonomy within Iraq amid broader regional pressures.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日
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外部リンクに注意してください。
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