The 94% trader consensus against a KRG independence declaration by December 31, 2026, reflects the absence of any official announcements, parliamentary actions, or leadership statements signaling secession intent. Instead, priorities center on resolving the post-2024 election deadlock between the KDP and PUK over cabinet formation, budget transfers, and oil revenue sharing with Baghdad, including a 2025 multilateral export agreement routing KRI production through federal channels. Internal divisions, Peshmerga fragmentation, and security pressures from Turkish operations and Iranian-aligned groups further divert focus from sovereignty talks. Historical precedent from the rejected 2017 referendum and broad regional opposition reinforce the low probability of unilateral action within the resolution window.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日KRG declares independence from Iraq by December 31?
KRG declares independence from Iraq by December 31?
$110,798 Vol.
$110,798 Vol.
2026/12/31
$110,798 Vol.
$110,798 Vol.
2026/12/31
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Kurdistan Regional Government (KRG), or a ruling party, coalition, or executive official of the KRG, formally declares the creation of a new independent state separate from Iraq and asserts governing authority over a specified territory within Iraq by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A qualifying public announcement alone is sufficient for a "Yes" resolution, regardless of whether governing authority is actually established, maintained, or recognized.
A declaration must include a clear public statement by the organization or its leadership announcing the establishment of an independent political entity separate from Iraq and claiming governmental authority over an identified geographic area previously under Iraqi governance.
The claimed territory does not need to be precisely defined but must be at least partially specified. A majority of the claimed territory must lie within the internationally recognized borders of Iraq as they existed at the time of this market’s creation.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.The 94% trader consensus against a KRG independence declaration by December 31, 2026, reflects the absence of any official announcements, parliamentary actions, or leadership statements signaling secession intent. Instead, priorities center on resolving the post-2024 election deadlock between the KDP and PUK over cabinet formation, budget transfers, and oil revenue sharing with Baghdad, including a 2025 multilateral export agreement routing KRI production through federal channels. Internal divisions, Peshmerga fragmentation, and security pressures from Turkish operations and Iranian-aligned groups further divert focus from sovereignty talks. Historical precedent from the rejected 2017 referendum and broad regional opposition reinforce the low probability of unilateral action within the resolution window.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Kurdistan Regional Government (KRG), or a ruling party, coalition, or executive official of the KRG, formally declares the creation of a new independent state separate from Iraq and asserts governing authority over a specified territory within Iraq by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A qualifying public announcement alone is sufficient for a "Yes" resolution, regardless of whether governing authority is actually established, maintained, or recognized.
A declaration must include a clear public statement by the organization or its leadership announcing the establishment of an independent political entity separate from Iraq and claiming governmental authority over an identified geographic area previously under Iraqi governance.
The claimed territory does not need to be precisely defined but must be at least partially specified. A majority of the claimed territory must lie within the internationally recognized borders of Iraq as they existed at the time of this market’s creation.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
A qualifying public announcement alone is sufficient for a "Yes" resolution, regardless of whether governing authority is actually established, maintained, or recognized.
A declaration must include a clear public statement by the organization or its leadership announcing the establishment of an independent political entity separate from Iraq and claiming governmental authority over an identified geographic area previously under Iraqi governance.
The claimed territory does not need to be precisely defined but must be at least partially specified. A majority of the claimed territory must lie within the internationally recognized borders of Iraq as they existed at the time of this market’s creation.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
マーケット開始日： May 1, 2026, 6:08 PM ET
音量
$110,798終了日
2026/12/31マーケット開始日
May 1, 2026, 6:08 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Kurdistan Regional Government (KRG), or a ruling party, coalition, or executive official of the KRG, formally declares the creation of a new independent state separate from Iraq and asserts governing authority over a specified territory within Iraq by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A qualifying public announcement alone is sufficient for a "Yes" resolution, regardless of whether governing authority is actually established, maintained, or recognized.
A declaration must include a clear public statement by the organization or its leadership announcing the establishment of an independent political entity separate from Iraq and claiming governmental authority over an identified geographic area previously under Iraqi governance.
The claimed territory does not need to be precisely defined but must be at least partially specified. A majority of the claimed territory must lie within the internationally recognized borders of Iraq as they existed at the time of this market’s creation.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.The 94% trader consensus against a KRG independence declaration by December 31, 2026, reflects the absence of any official announcements, parliamentary actions, or leadership statements signaling secession intent. Instead, priorities center on resolving the post-2024 election deadlock between the KDP and PUK over cabinet formation, budget transfers, and oil revenue sharing with Baghdad, including a 2025 multilateral export agreement routing KRI production through federal channels. Internal divisions, Peshmerga fragmentation, and security pressures from Turkish operations and Iranian-aligned groups further divert focus from sovereignty talks. Historical precedent from the rejected 2017 referendum and broad regional opposition reinforce the low probability of unilateral action within the resolution window.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Kurdistan Regional Government (KRG), or a ruling party, coalition, or executive official of the KRG, formally declares the creation of a new independent state separate from Iraq and asserts governing authority over a specified territory within Iraq by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A qualifying public announcement alone is sufficient for a "Yes" resolution, regardless of whether governing authority is actually established, maintained, or recognized.
A declaration must include a clear public statement by the organization or its leadership announcing the establishment of an independent political entity separate from Iraq and claiming governmental authority over an identified geographic area previously under Iraqi governance.
The claimed territory does not need to be precisely defined but must be at least partially specified. A majority of the claimed territory must lie within the internationally recognized borders of Iraq as they existed at the time of this market’s creation.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
A qualifying public announcement alone is sufficient for a "Yes" resolution, regardless of whether governing authority is actually established, maintained, or recognized.
A declaration must include a clear public statement by the organization or its leadership announcing the establishment of an independent political entity separate from Iraq and claiming governmental authority over an identified geographic area previously under Iraqi governance.
The claimed territory does not need to be precisely defined but must be at least partially specified. A majority of the claimed territory must lie within the internationally recognized borders of Iraq as they existed at the time of this market’s creation.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
音量
$110,798終了日
2026/12/31マーケット開始日
May 1, 2026, 6:08 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...The 94% trader consensus against a KRG independence declaration by December 31, 2026, reflects the absence of any official announcements, parliamentary actions, or leadership statements signaling secession intent. Instead, priorities center on resolving the post-2024 election deadlock between the KDP and PUK over cabinet formation, budget transfers, and oil revenue sharing with Baghdad, including a 2025 multilateral export agreement routing KRI production through federal channels. Internal divisions, Peshmerga fragmentation, and security pressures from Turkish operations and Iranian-aligned groups further divert focus from sovereignty talks. Historical precedent from the rejected 2017 referendum and broad regional opposition reinforce the low probability of unilateral action within the resolution window.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日
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