Recent expulsions of Iranian diplomats, including the U.S. removal of deputy UN ambassador Saadat Aghajani and two other mission members in late 2025 on national security grounds, along with Argentina's April 2026 declaration of chargé d'affaires Mohsen Soltani Tehrani as persona non grata after designating the IRGC a terrorist organization, reflect ongoing bilateral tensions. These actions often stem from allegations of espionage, support for proxy groups, or retaliatory measures tied to regional conflicts involving Hezbollah and Israel. Lebanon issued an expulsion order in March 2026 that Iran has resisted. Traders monitor further announcements from Western or allied governments, where such steps typically follow intelligence assessments or diplomatic incidents rather than routine rotations.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日新規
2026/08/31
8月31日
5%
9月30日
45%
10月31日
52%
$442 Vol.
8月31日
$442 Vol.
5%
9月30日
$0 Vol.
45%
10月31日
$0 Vol.
52%
This market will resolve to “Yes” if any country expels the Iranian Ambassador stationed in that country as of market creation between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
For the purposes of this market, “expel” refers to a formal action by a country requiring the Iranian Ambassador currently stationed there as of market creation to leave the country, including a declaration of persona non grata. Revocation of the Ambassador’s visa or denial of entry to that country will not alone suffice.
An announcement of a qualifying expulsion will suffice for a “Yes” resolution, regardless of whether the Ambassador actually leaves the country.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the relevant country’s government; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Recent expulsions of Iranian diplomats, including the U.S. removal of deputy UN ambassador Saadat Aghajani and two other mission members in late 2025 on national security grounds, along with Argentina's April 2026 declaration of chargé d'affaires Mohsen Soltani Tehrani as persona non grata after designating the IRGC a terrorist organization, reflect ongoing bilateral tensions. These actions often stem from allegations of espionage, support for proxy groups, or retaliatory measures tied to regional conflicts involving Hezbollah and Israel. Lebanon issued an expulsion order in March 2026 that Iran has resisted. Traders monitor further announcements from Western or allied governments, where such steps typically follow intelligence assessments or diplomatic incidents rather than routine rotations.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if any country expels the Iranian Ambassador stationed in that country as of market creation between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
For the purposes of this market, “expel” refers to a formal action by a country requiring the Iranian Ambassador currently stationed there as of market creation to leave the country, including a declaration of persona non grata. Revocation of the Ambassador’s visa or denial of entry to that country will not alone suffice.
An announcement of a qualifying expulsion will suffice for a “Yes” resolution, regardless of whether the Ambassador actually leaves the country.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the relevant country’s government; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
For the purposes of this market, “expel” refers to a formal action by a country requiring the Iranian Ambassador currently stationed there as of market creation to leave the country, including a declaration of persona non grata. Revocation of the Ambassador’s visa or denial of entry to that country will not alone suffice.
An announcement of a qualifying expulsion will suffice for a “Yes” resolution, regardless of whether the Ambassador actually leaves the country.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the relevant country’s government; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
マーケット開始日： Aug 19, 2026, 8:32 PM ET
音量
$442終了日
2026/10/31マーケット開始日
Aug 19, 2026, 8:32 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “Yes” if any country expels the Iranian Ambassador stationed in that country as of market creation between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
For the purposes of this market, “expel” refers to a formal action by a country requiring the Iranian Ambassador currently stationed there as of market creation to leave the country, including a declaration of persona non grata. Revocation of the Ambassador’s visa or denial of entry to that country will not alone suffice.
An announcement of a qualifying expulsion will suffice for a “Yes” resolution, regardless of whether the Ambassador actually leaves the country.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the relevant country’s government; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Recent expulsions of Iranian diplomats, including the U.S. removal of deputy UN ambassador Saadat Aghajani and two other mission members in late 2025 on national security grounds, along with Argentina's April 2026 declaration of chargé d'affaires Mohsen Soltani Tehrani as persona non grata after designating the IRGC a terrorist organization, reflect ongoing bilateral tensions. These actions often stem from allegations of espionage, support for proxy groups, or retaliatory measures tied to regional conflicts involving Hezbollah and Israel. Lebanon issued an expulsion order in March 2026 that Iran has resisted. Traders monitor further announcements from Western or allied governments, where such steps typically follow intelligence assessments or diplomatic incidents rather than routine rotations.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if any country expels the Iranian Ambassador stationed in that country as of market creation between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
For the purposes of this market, “expel” refers to a formal action by a country requiring the Iranian Ambassador currently stationed there as of market creation to leave the country, including a declaration of persona non grata. Revocation of the Ambassador’s visa or denial of entry to that country will not alone suffice.
An announcement of a qualifying expulsion will suffice for a “Yes” resolution, regardless of whether the Ambassador actually leaves the country.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the relevant country’s government; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
For the purposes of this market, “expel” refers to a formal action by a country requiring the Iranian Ambassador currently stationed there as of market creation to leave the country, including a declaration of persona non grata. Revocation of the Ambassador’s visa or denial of entry to that country will not alone suffice.
An announcement of a qualifying expulsion will suffice for a “Yes” resolution, regardless of whether the Ambassador actually leaves the country.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the relevant country’s government; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
音量
$442終了日
2026/10/31マーケット開始日
Aug 19, 2026, 8:32 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Recent expulsions of Iranian diplomats, including the U.S. removal of deputy UN ambassador Saadat Aghajani and two other mission members in late 2025 on national security grounds, along with Argentina's April 2026 declaration of chargé d'affaires Mohsen Soltani Tehrani as persona non grata after designating the IRGC a terrorist organization, reflect ongoing bilateral tensions. These actions often stem from allegations of espionage, support for proxy groups, or retaliatory measures tied to regional conflicts involving Hezbollah and Israel. Lebanon issued an expulsion order in March 2026 that Iran has resisted. Traders monitor further announcements from Western or allied governments, where such steps typically follow intelligence assessments or diplomatic incidents rather than routine rotations.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日
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