Israel and Lebanon reached agreement on a 45-day extension of their U.S.-brokered ceasefire, announced today by the State Department after talks in Washington. The truce, originally set for ten days beginning April 16 and extended three weeks on April 23, now runs through late June to allow further negotiations on a permanent security arrangement. Diplomatic momentum centers on Lebanese sovereignty assertions, Hezbollah restraint, and U.S. facilitation, with both sides signaling continued engagement. Trader positioning reflects expectations around upcoming rounds of talks, any reported progress on implementation milestones, and potential statements from Israeli or Lebanese officials that could trigger an earlier or longer extension announcement before the current period lapses.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日$2,282,279 Vol.
2026/05/17
May 13
No
May 14
No
May 15
Yes
May 16
Yes
May 17
Yes
$2,282,279 Vol.
May 13
$18,450 Vol.
No
May 14
$53,896 Vol.
No
May 15
$1,808,629 Vol.
Yes
May 16
$240,632 Vol.
Yes
May 17
$160,672 Vol.
Yes
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Israel officially announces another extension of the ceasefire agreement between Israel and Hezbollah announced on April 16, 2026, defined as a publicly announced commitment to halt direct military engagement with Hezbollah, by the specified date, 11:59 PM Israel Daylight Time. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Both announcements of extensions of the April 16 ceasefire, as extended on April 23, 2026, and of new agreements will qualify.
If a qualifying announcement is officially made before the resolution date, this market will resolve to “Yes,” regardless of whether the ceasefire extension ultimately takes effect.
A qualifying announcement requires clear public confirmation from the Israeli government that Israel has extended its commitment to the ceasefire beyond its current scheduled end.
Any form of informal understanding, backchannel communication, de-escalation, or unilateral pause in hostilities without a confirmed Israeli announcement of a qualifying extension will not qualify. Similarly, newly agreed-upon humanitarian pauses, limited operational pauses, or temporary tactical stand-downs will not qualify.
A newly agreed-upon broader peace deal will qualify if it includes Israel's agreement to a ceasefire extension. Agreements that outline future negotiations or de-escalation measures, but do not explicitly extend the ceasefire, will not qualify.
This market’s resolution will be based on official statements from the Israeli government and will not require confirmation from Hezbollah. However, an overwhelming consensus of credible media reporting that a ceasefire extension agreement has been reached will suffice.Israel and Lebanon reached agreement on a 45-day extension of their U.S.-brokered ceasefire, announced today by the State Department after talks in Washington. The truce, originally set for ten days beginning April 16 and extended three weeks on April 23, now runs through late June to allow further negotiations on a permanent security arrangement. Diplomatic momentum centers on Lebanese sovereignty assertions, Hezbollah restraint, and U.S. facilitation, with both sides signaling continued engagement. Trader positioning reflects expectations around upcoming rounds of talks, any reported progress on implementation milestones, and potential statements from Israeli or Lebanese officials that could trigger an earlier or longer extension announcement before the current period lapses.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Israel officially announces another extension of the ceasefire agreement between Israel and Hezbollah announced on April 16, 2026, defined as a publicly announced commitment to halt direct military engagement with Hezbollah, by the specified date, 11:59 PM Israel Daylight Time. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Both announcements of extensions of the April 16 ceasefire, as extended on April 23, 2026, and of new agreements will qualify.
If a qualifying announcement is officially made before the resolution date, this market will resolve to “Yes,” regardless of whether the ceasefire extension ultimately takes effect.
A qualifying announcement requires clear public confirmation from the Israeli government that Israel has extended its commitment to the ceasefire beyond its current scheduled end.
Any form of informal understanding, backchannel communication, de-escalation, or unilateral pause in hostilities without a confirmed Israeli announcement of a qualifying extension will not qualify. Similarly, newly agreed-upon humanitarian pauses, limited operational pauses, or temporary tactical stand-downs will not qualify.
A newly agreed-upon broader peace deal will qualify if it includes Israel's agreement to a ceasefire extension. Agreements that outline future negotiations or de-escalation measures, but do not explicitly extend the ceasefire, will not qualify.
This market’s resolution will be based on official statements from the Israeli government and will not require confirmation from Hezbollah. However, an overwhelming consensus of credible media reporting that a ceasefire extension agreement has been reached will suffice.
Both announcements of extensions of the April 16 ceasefire, as extended on April 23, 2026, and of new agreements will qualify.
If a qualifying announcement is officially made before the resolution date, this market will resolve to “Yes,” regardless of whether the ceasefire extension ultimately takes effect.
A qualifying announcement requires clear public confirmation from the Israeli government that Israel has extended its commitment to the ceasefire beyond its current scheduled end.
Any form of informal understanding, backchannel communication, de-escalation, or unilateral pause in hostilities without a confirmed Israeli announcement of a qualifying extension will not qualify. Similarly, newly agreed-upon humanitarian pauses, limited operational pauses, or temporary tactical stand-downs will not qualify.
A newly agreed-upon broader peace deal will qualify if it includes Israel's agreement to a ceasefire extension. Agreements that outline future negotiations or de-escalation measures, but do not explicitly extend the ceasefire, will not qualify.
This market’s resolution will be based on official statements from the Israeli government and will not require confirmation from Hezbollah. However, an overwhelming consensus of credible media reporting that a ceasefire extension agreement has been reached will suffice.
マーケット開始日： May 12, 2026, 11:28 PM ET
音量
$2,282,279終了日
2026/05/17マーケット開始日
May 12, 2026, 11:28 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...提案された結果: No
異議申し立てなし
最終結果: No
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Israel officially announces another extension of the ceasefire agreement between Israel and Hezbollah announced on April 16, 2026, defined as a publicly announced commitment to halt direct military engagement with Hezbollah, by the specified date, 11:59 PM Israel Daylight Time. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Both announcements of extensions of the April 16 ceasefire, as extended on April 23, 2026, and of new agreements will qualify.
If a qualifying announcement is officially made before the resolution date, this market will resolve to “Yes,” regardless of whether the ceasefire extension ultimately takes effect.
A qualifying announcement requires clear public confirmation from the Israeli government that Israel has extended its commitment to the ceasefire beyond its current scheduled end.
Any form of informal understanding, backchannel communication, de-escalation, or unilateral pause in hostilities without a confirmed Israeli announcement of a qualifying extension will not qualify. Similarly, newly agreed-upon humanitarian pauses, limited operational pauses, or temporary tactical stand-downs will not qualify.
A newly agreed-upon broader peace deal will qualify if it includes Israel's agreement to a ceasefire extension. Agreements that outline future negotiations or de-escalation measures, but do not explicitly extend the ceasefire, will not qualify.
This market’s resolution will be based on official statements from the Israeli government and will not require confirmation from Hezbollah. However, an overwhelming consensus of credible media reporting that a ceasefire extension agreement has been reached will suffice.Israel and Lebanon reached agreement on a 45-day extension of their U.S.-brokered ceasefire, announced today by the State Department after talks in Washington. The truce, originally set for ten days beginning April 16 and extended three weeks on April 23, now runs through late June to allow further negotiations on a permanent security arrangement. Diplomatic momentum centers on Lebanese sovereignty assertions, Hezbollah restraint, and U.S. facilitation, with both sides signaling continued engagement. Trader positioning reflects expectations around upcoming rounds of talks, any reported progress on implementation milestones, and potential statements from Israeli or Lebanese officials that could trigger an earlier or longer extension announcement before the current period lapses.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Israel officially announces another extension of the ceasefire agreement between Israel and Hezbollah announced on April 16, 2026, defined as a publicly announced commitment to halt direct military engagement with Hezbollah, by the specified date, 11:59 PM Israel Daylight Time. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Both announcements of extensions of the April 16 ceasefire, as extended on April 23, 2026, and of new agreements will qualify.
If a qualifying announcement is officially made before the resolution date, this market will resolve to “Yes,” regardless of whether the ceasefire extension ultimately takes effect.
A qualifying announcement requires clear public confirmation from the Israeli government that Israel has extended its commitment to the ceasefire beyond its current scheduled end.
Any form of informal understanding, backchannel communication, de-escalation, or unilateral pause in hostilities without a confirmed Israeli announcement of a qualifying extension will not qualify. Similarly, newly agreed-upon humanitarian pauses, limited operational pauses, or temporary tactical stand-downs will not qualify.
A newly agreed-upon broader peace deal will qualify if it includes Israel's agreement to a ceasefire extension. Agreements that outline future negotiations or de-escalation measures, but do not explicitly extend the ceasefire, will not qualify.
This market’s resolution will be based on official statements from the Israeli government and will not require confirmation from Hezbollah. However, an overwhelming consensus of credible media reporting that a ceasefire extension agreement has been reached will suffice.
Both announcements of extensions of the April 16 ceasefire, as extended on April 23, 2026, and of new agreements will qualify.
If a qualifying announcement is officially made before the resolution date, this market will resolve to “Yes,” regardless of whether the ceasefire extension ultimately takes effect.
A qualifying announcement requires clear public confirmation from the Israeli government that Israel has extended its commitment to the ceasefire beyond its current scheduled end.
Any form of informal understanding, backchannel communication, de-escalation, or unilateral pause in hostilities without a confirmed Israeli announcement of a qualifying extension will not qualify. Similarly, newly agreed-upon humanitarian pauses, limited operational pauses, or temporary tactical stand-downs will not qualify.
A newly agreed-upon broader peace deal will qualify if it includes Israel's agreement to a ceasefire extension. Agreements that outline future negotiations or de-escalation measures, but do not explicitly extend the ceasefire, will not qualify.
This market’s resolution will be based on official statements from the Israeli government and will not require confirmation from Hezbollah. However, an overwhelming consensus of credible media reporting that a ceasefire extension agreement has been reached will suffice.
音量
$2,282,279終了日
2026/05/17マーケット開始日
May 12, 2026, 11:28 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...提案された結果: No
異議申し立てなし
最終結果: No
Israel and Lebanon reached agreement on a 45-day extension of their U.S.-brokered ceasefire, announced today by the State Department after talks in Washington. The truce, originally set for ten days beginning April 16 and extended three weeks on April 23, now runs through late June to allow further negotiations on a permanent security arrangement. Diplomatic momentum centers on Lebanese sovereignty assertions, Hezbollah restraint, and U.S. facilitation, with both sides signaling continued engagement. Trader positioning reflects expectations around upcoming rounds of talks, any reported progress on implementation milestones, and potential statements from Israeli or Lebanese officials that could trigger an earlier or longer extension announcement before the current period lapses.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日
外部リンクに注意してください。
外部リンクに注意してください。
よくある質問