Escalating U.S.-Iran naval confrontations in the Strait of Hormuz, including multiple U.S. guided-missile destroyer transits under Project Freedom on May 7, 2026, represent the primary driver of trader sentiment for this market. Recent Iranian missile and drone attacks on U.S. assets, countered by CENTCOM self-defense strikes, have elevated shipping insurance premiums and pushed Brent crude above $114 per barrel amid fears of sustained supply disruptions through the critical energy chokepoint. Market participants are pricing in potential contributions from additional nations such as the U.K., France, and India, whose naval escorts in the Gulf of Oman could expand if multilateral efforts to reopen traffic accelerate before the May 31 resolution. Key upcoming catalysts include further FOMC-adjacent risk-asset volatility, any new regulatory filings on tanker routes, and last-minute diplomatic shifts that could alter implied probabilities for specific country involvement.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日$1,002,159 Vol.
2026/05/31
United Kingdom
4%
France
4%
Germany
1%
Italy
1%
Netherlands
1%
Japan
1%
Canada
<1%
India
2%
Greece
<1%
Pakistan
1%
Saudi Arabia
2%
UAE
5%
Bahrain
3%
Qatar
<1%
Kuwait
4%
Oman
1%
South Korea
<1%
Australia
<1%
$1,002,159 Vol.
United Kingdom
$162,302 Vol.
4%
France
$95,166 Vol.
4%
Germany
$166,634 Vol.
1%
Italy
$74,081 Vol.
1%
Netherlands
$50,298 Vol.
1%
Japan
$112,031 Vol.
1%
Canada
$19,730 Vol.
<1%
India
$7,405 Vol.
2%
Greece
$18,380 Vol.
<1%
Pakistan
$11,940 Vol.
1%
Saudi Arabia
$20,254 Vol.
2%
UAE
$2,764 Vol.
5%
Bahrain
$18,889 Vol.
3%
Qatar
$5,626 Vol.
<1%
Kuwait
$1,362 Vol.
4%
Oman
$4,498 Vol.
1%
South Korea
$83,114 Vol.
<1%
Australia
$72,042 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a national government, its military, or a broad consensus of credible reporting confirms that the listed country's warships transited through the Strait of Hormuz between market creation and May 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
A "warship transit" is defined as a military vessel passing through the Strait of Hormuz. Military cargo or support vessels will be considered “warships”; however, commercial or civilian vessels will not qualify.
For the purposes of this market, only transits through the Strait of Hormuz will be considered, defined as passage through the narrowest portion of the waterway between Iran and Oman. Operations solely in the Persian Gulf, Gulf of Oman, or Arabian Sea without passage through this narrowest section will not qualify.
Official confirmation by a national government or its military that its vessels transited through the Strait of Hormuz during the specified timeframe will resolve this market immediately. An overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirming that such a transit occurred during the specified timeframe will also suffice.
Qualifying confirmations include statements such as official announcements that a country has deployed naval vessels to transit or escort shipping through the Strait of Hormuz.
Confirmations referring only to naval presence in the broader region, including the Persian Gulf, Gulf of Oman, or Arabian Sea, without confirmed transit through the Strait itself, as well as aerial operations, cyber operations, or actions by proxies or third parties, will not alone qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information by the respective national governments or their militaries; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting will also suffice.Escalating U.S.-Iran naval confrontations in the Strait of Hormuz, including multiple U.S. guided-missile destroyer transits under Project Freedom on May 7, 2026, represent the primary driver of trader sentiment for this market. Recent Iranian missile and drone attacks on U.S. assets, countered by CENTCOM self-defense strikes, have elevated shipping insurance premiums and pushed Brent crude above $114 per barrel amid fears of sustained supply disruptions through the critical energy chokepoint. Market participants are pricing in potential contributions from additional nations such as the U.K., France, and India, whose naval escorts in the Gulf of Oman could expand if multilateral efforts to reopen traffic accelerate before the May 31 resolution. Key upcoming catalysts include further FOMC-adjacent risk-asset volatility, any new regulatory filings on tanker routes, and last-minute diplomatic shifts that could alter implied probabilities for specific country involvement.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a national government, its military, or a broad consensus of credible reporting confirms that the listed country's warships transited through the Strait of Hormuz between market creation and May 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
A "warship transit" is defined as a military vessel passing through the Strait of Hormuz. Military cargo or support vessels will be considered “warships”; however, commercial or civilian vessels will not qualify.
For the purposes of this market, only transits through the Strait of Hormuz will be considered, defined as passage through the narrowest portion of the waterway between Iran and Oman. Operations solely in the Persian Gulf, Gulf of Oman, or Arabian Sea without passage through this narrowest section will not qualify.
Official confirmation by a national government or its military that its vessels transited through the Strait of Hormuz during the specified timeframe will resolve this market immediately. An overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirming that such a transit occurred during the specified timeframe will also suffice.
Qualifying confirmations include statements such as official announcements that a country has deployed naval vessels to transit or escort shipping through the Strait of Hormuz.
Confirmations referring only to naval presence in the broader region, including the Persian Gulf, Gulf of Oman, or Arabian Sea, without confirmed transit through the Strait itself, as well as aerial operations, cyber operations, or actions by proxies or third parties, will not alone qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information by the respective national governments or their militaries; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting will also suffice.
A "warship transit" is defined as a military vessel passing through the Strait of Hormuz. Military cargo or support vessels will be considered “warships”; however, commercial or civilian vessels will not qualify.
For the purposes of this market, only transits through the Strait of Hormuz will be considered, defined as passage through the narrowest portion of the waterway between Iran and Oman. Operations solely in the Persian Gulf, Gulf of Oman, or Arabian Sea without passage through this narrowest section will not qualify.
Official confirmation by a national government or its military that its vessels transited through the Strait of Hormuz during the specified timeframe will resolve this market immediately. An overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirming that such a transit occurred during the specified timeframe will also suffice.
Qualifying confirmations include statements such as official announcements that a country has deployed naval vessels to transit or escort shipping through the Strait of Hormuz.
Confirmations referring only to naval presence in the broader region, including the Persian Gulf, Gulf of Oman, or Arabian Sea, without confirmed transit through the Strait itself, as well as aerial operations, cyber operations, or actions by proxies or third parties, will not alone qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information by the respective national governments or their militaries; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting will also suffice.
マーケット開始日： May 5, 2026, 8:03 PM ET
音量
$1,002,159終了日
2026/05/31マーケット開始日
May 5, 2026, 8:03 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if a national government, its military, or a broad consensus of credible reporting confirms that the listed country's warships transited through the Strait of Hormuz between market creation and May 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
A "warship transit" is defined as a military vessel passing through the Strait of Hormuz. Military cargo or support vessels will be considered “warships”; however, commercial or civilian vessels will not qualify.
For the purposes of this market, only transits through the Strait of Hormuz will be considered, defined as passage through the narrowest portion of the waterway between Iran and Oman. Operations solely in the Persian Gulf, Gulf of Oman, or Arabian Sea without passage through this narrowest section will not qualify.
Official confirmation by a national government or its military that its vessels transited through the Strait of Hormuz during the specified timeframe will resolve this market immediately. An overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirming that such a transit occurred during the specified timeframe will also suffice.
Qualifying confirmations include statements such as official announcements that a country has deployed naval vessels to transit or escort shipping through the Strait of Hormuz.
Confirmations referring only to naval presence in the broader region, including the Persian Gulf, Gulf of Oman, or Arabian Sea, without confirmed transit through the Strait itself, as well as aerial operations, cyber operations, or actions by proxies or third parties, will not alone qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information by the respective national governments or their militaries; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting will also suffice.Escalating U.S.-Iran naval confrontations in the Strait of Hormuz, including multiple U.S. guided-missile destroyer transits under Project Freedom on May 7, 2026, represent the primary driver of trader sentiment for this market. Recent Iranian missile and drone attacks on U.S. assets, countered by CENTCOM self-defense strikes, have elevated shipping insurance premiums and pushed Brent crude above $114 per barrel amid fears of sustained supply disruptions through the critical energy chokepoint. Market participants are pricing in potential contributions from additional nations such as the U.K., France, and India, whose naval escorts in the Gulf of Oman could expand if multilateral efforts to reopen traffic accelerate before the May 31 resolution. Key upcoming catalysts include further FOMC-adjacent risk-asset volatility, any new regulatory filings on tanker routes, and last-minute diplomatic shifts that could alter implied probabilities for specific country involvement.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a national government, its military, or a broad consensus of credible reporting confirms that the listed country's warships transited through the Strait of Hormuz between market creation and May 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
A "warship transit" is defined as a military vessel passing through the Strait of Hormuz. Military cargo or support vessels will be considered “warships”; however, commercial or civilian vessels will not qualify.
For the purposes of this market, only transits through the Strait of Hormuz will be considered, defined as passage through the narrowest portion of the waterway between Iran and Oman. Operations solely in the Persian Gulf, Gulf of Oman, or Arabian Sea without passage through this narrowest section will not qualify.
Official confirmation by a national government or its military that its vessels transited through the Strait of Hormuz during the specified timeframe will resolve this market immediately. An overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirming that such a transit occurred during the specified timeframe will also suffice.
Qualifying confirmations include statements such as official announcements that a country has deployed naval vessels to transit or escort shipping through the Strait of Hormuz.
Confirmations referring only to naval presence in the broader region, including the Persian Gulf, Gulf of Oman, or Arabian Sea, without confirmed transit through the Strait itself, as well as aerial operations, cyber operations, or actions by proxies or third parties, will not alone qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information by the respective national governments or their militaries; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting will also suffice.
A "warship transit" is defined as a military vessel passing through the Strait of Hormuz. Military cargo or support vessels will be considered “warships”; however, commercial or civilian vessels will not qualify.
For the purposes of this market, only transits through the Strait of Hormuz will be considered, defined as passage through the narrowest portion of the waterway between Iran and Oman. Operations solely in the Persian Gulf, Gulf of Oman, or Arabian Sea without passage through this narrowest section will not qualify.
Official confirmation by a national government or its military that its vessels transited through the Strait of Hormuz during the specified timeframe will resolve this market immediately. An overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirming that such a transit occurred during the specified timeframe will also suffice.
Qualifying confirmations include statements such as official announcements that a country has deployed naval vessels to transit or escort shipping through the Strait of Hormuz.
Confirmations referring only to naval presence in the broader region, including the Persian Gulf, Gulf of Oman, or Arabian Sea, without confirmed transit through the Strait itself, as well as aerial operations, cyber operations, or actions by proxies or third parties, will not alone qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information by the respective national governments or their militaries; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting will also suffice.
音量
$1,002,159終了日
2026/05/31マーケット開始日
May 5, 2026, 8:03 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Escalating U.S.-Iran naval confrontations in the Strait of Hormuz, including multiple U.S. guided-missile destroyer transits under Project Freedom on May 7, 2026, represent the primary driver of trader sentiment for this market. Recent Iranian missile and drone attacks on U.S. assets, countered by CENTCOM self-defense strikes, have elevated shipping insurance premiums and pushed Brent crude above $114 per barrel amid fears of sustained supply disruptions through the critical energy chokepoint. Market participants are pricing in potential contributions from additional nations such as the U.K., France, and India, whose naval escorts in the Gulf of Oman could expand if multilateral efforts to reopen traffic accelerate before the May 31 resolution. Key upcoming catalysts include further FOMC-adjacent risk-asset volatility, any new regulatory filings on tanker routes, and last-minute diplomatic shifts that could alter implied probabilities for specific country involvement.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日
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