Trader consensus in the Strait of Hormuz transit market continues to favor the 20-39 outcome at 62.5% implied probability, driven by the prolonged Iran-U.S. conflict that has slashed commercial traffic through the world’s most critical oil chokepoint. Daily crossings have remained in the single digits through early May, reflecting safety concerns, naval blockades, and mine-clearance operations that have kept volumes well below the pre-conflict baseline of roughly 100 vessels per day. Recent developments, including U.S. escort missions under Operation Project Freedom and selective Iranian allowances for Chinese-flagged vessels, have produced only modest upticks to around 10 transits on isolated days without shifting the broader suppression. With resolution of the week of May 11 approaching and no verified diplomatic breakthrough, market-implied odds price in sustained low throughput that aligns with observed shipping data and ongoing energy-market volatility.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日20-39 62%
40-59 30%
60-79 4.2%
<20 3.6%
$79,382 Vol.
$79,382 Vol.
2026/05/17
<20
4%
20-39
62%
40-59
30%
60-79
4%
80+
2%
20-39 62%
40-59 30%
60-79 4.2%
<20 3.6%
$79,382 Vol.
$79,382 Vol.
2026/05/17
<20
$28,053 Vol.
4%
20-39
$13,343 Vol.
62%
40-59
$14,539 Vol.
30%
60-79
$12,054 Vol.
4%
80+
$11,482 Vol.
2%
This market will resolve according to the total number of transit calls that IMF Portwatch reports for the Strait of Hormuz for all days from May 11, 2026, through May 17, 2026, inclusive.
Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as data has been published for the final date in the specified period. If no data has been published for the final date of the specified period within 14 calendar days (ET) after the end of that period, this market will resolve based on data published up to that point.
Revisions to previously published data points made within this market’s timeframe will be considered. Revisions to previously published data points after data is published for the final date of the specified period, however, will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.Trader consensus in the Strait of Hormuz transit market continues to favor the 20-39 outcome at 62.5% implied probability, driven by the prolonged Iran-U.S. conflict that has slashed commercial traffic through the world’s most critical oil chokepoint. Daily crossings have remained in the single digits through early May, reflecting safety concerns, naval blockades, and mine-clearance operations that have kept volumes well below the pre-conflict baseline of roughly 100 vessels per day. Recent developments, including U.S. escort missions under Operation Project Freedom and selective Iranian allowances for Chinese-flagged vessels, have produced only modest upticks to around 10 transits on isolated days without shifting the broader suppression. With resolution of the week of May 11 approaching and no verified diplomatic breakthrough, market-implied odds price in sustained low throughput that aligns with observed shipping data and ongoing energy-market volatility.
This market will resolve according to the total number of transit calls that IMF Portwatch reports for the Strait of Hormuz for all days from May 11, 2026, through May 17, 2026, inclusive.
Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as data has been published for the final date in the specified period. If no data has been published for the final date of the specified period within 14 calendar days (ET) after the end of that period, this market will resolve based on data published up to that point.
Revisions to previously published data points made within this market’s timeframe will be considered. Revisions to previously published data points after data is published for the final date of the specified period, however, will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.
Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as data has been published for the final date in the specified period. If no data has been published for the final date of the specified period within 14 calendar days (ET) after the end of that period, this market will resolve based on data published up to that point.
Revisions to previously published data points made within this market’s timeframe will be considered. Revisions to previously published data points after data is published for the final date of the specified period, however, will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.
マーケット開始日： May 8, 2026, 12:47 PM ET
音量
$79,382終了日
2026/05/17マーケット開始日
May 8, 2026, 12:47 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the total number of transit calls that IMF Portwatch reports for the Strait of Hormuz for all days from May 11, 2026, through May 17, 2026, inclusive.
Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as data has been published for the final date in the specified period. If no data has been published for the final date of the specified period within 14 calendar days (ET) after the end of that period, this market will resolve based on data published up to that point.
Revisions to previously published data points made within this market’s timeframe will be considered. Revisions to previously published data points after data is published for the final date of the specified period, however, will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.Trader consensus in the Strait of Hormuz transit market continues to favor the 20-39 outcome at 62.5% implied probability, driven by the prolonged Iran-U.S. conflict that has slashed commercial traffic through the world’s most critical oil chokepoint. Daily crossings have remained in the single digits through early May, reflecting safety concerns, naval blockades, and mine-clearance operations that have kept volumes well below the pre-conflict baseline of roughly 100 vessels per day. Recent developments, including U.S. escort missions under Operation Project Freedom and selective Iranian allowances for Chinese-flagged vessels, have produced only modest upticks to around 10 transits on isolated days without shifting the broader suppression. With resolution of the week of May 11 approaching and no verified diplomatic breakthrough, market-implied odds price in sustained low throughput that aligns with observed shipping data and ongoing energy-market volatility.
This market will resolve according to the total number of transit calls that IMF Portwatch reports for the Strait of Hormuz for all days from May 11, 2026, through May 17, 2026, inclusive.
Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as data has been published for the final date in the specified period. If no data has been published for the final date of the specified period within 14 calendar days (ET) after the end of that period, this market will resolve based on data published up to that point.
Revisions to previously published data points made within this market’s timeframe will be considered. Revisions to previously published data points after data is published for the final date of the specified period, however, will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.
Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as data has been published for the final date in the specified period. If no data has been published for the final date of the specified period within 14 calendar days (ET) after the end of that period, this market will resolve based on data published up to that point.
Revisions to previously published data points made within this market’s timeframe will be considered. Revisions to previously published data points after data is published for the final date of the specified period, however, will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.
音量
$79,382終了日
2026/05/17マーケット開始日
May 8, 2026, 12:47 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Trader consensus in the Strait of Hormuz transit market continues to favor the 20-39 outcome at 62.5% implied probability, driven by the prolonged Iran-U.S. conflict that has slashed commercial traffic through the world’s most critical oil chokepoint. Daily crossings have remained in the single digits through early May, reflecting safety concerns, naval blockades, and mine-clearance operations that have kept volumes well below the pre-conflict baseline of roughly 100 vessels per day. Recent developments, including U.S. escort missions under Operation Project Freedom and selective Iranian allowances for Chinese-flagged vessels, have produced only modest upticks to around 10 transits on isolated days without shifting the broader suppression. With resolution of the week of May 11 approaching and no verified diplomatic breakthrough, market-implied odds price in sustained low throughput that aligns with observed shipping data and ongoing energy-market volatility.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日
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