Ongoing Iranian restrictions and heightened maritime risks in the Persian Gulf continue to suppress commercial transits through the Strait of Hormuz, a key global energy chokepoint. Shipping data through early May shows daily crossings averaging single digits or low teens—roughly 5-10 percent of pre-conflict levels—with recent figures including just nine vessels on May 3 amid renewed warnings from Tehran against foreign naval involvement. These conditions have persisted since late February despite periodic diplomatic signals, creating sustained uncertainty for tanker and cargo movements. Trader consensus reflects this environment, assigning the strongest implied probability to persistently low average daily volumes by month-end while assigning minimal weight to any rapid rebound.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日0-10 87%
10-20 7%
20-40 2.8%
60+ 2.6%
$307,909 Vol.
$307,909 Vol.
2026/05/31
0-10
87%
10-20
7%
20-40
3%
40-60
2%
60+
3%
0-10 87%
10-20 7%
20-40 2.8%
60+ 2.6%
$307,909 Vol.
$307,909 Vol.
2026/05/31
0-10
$167,747 Vol.
87%
10-20
$41,023 Vol.
7%
20-40
$31,709 Vol.
3%
40-60
$24,614 Vol.
2%
60+
$42,816 Vol.
3%
This market will resolve according to the 7-day moving average of transit calls (“Arrivals of Ships”) for the Strait of Hormuz that IMF Portwatch reports for May 31, 2026.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as data for the specified date has been published. If no data for the specified date has been published by June 14, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve based on data for the most recent date prior to May 31, 2026, for which data is available.
This market will resolve based on the first publication of data for May 31, 2026. Any subsequent revisions will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.Ongoing Iranian restrictions and heightened maritime risks in the Persian Gulf continue to suppress commercial transits through the Strait of Hormuz, a key global energy chokepoint. Shipping data through early May shows daily crossings averaging single digits or low teens—roughly 5-10 percent of pre-conflict levels—with recent figures including just nine vessels on May 3 amid renewed warnings from Tehran against foreign naval involvement. These conditions have persisted since late February despite periodic diplomatic signals, creating sustained uncertainty for tanker and cargo movements. Trader consensus reflects this environment, assigning the strongest implied probability to persistently low average daily volumes by month-end while assigning minimal weight to any rapid rebound.
This market will resolve according to the 7-day moving average of transit calls (“Arrivals of Ships”) for the Strait of Hormuz that IMF Portwatch reports for May 31, 2026.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as data for the specified date has been published. If no data for the specified date has been published by June 14, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve based on data for the most recent date prior to May 31, 2026, for which data is available.
This market will resolve based on the first publication of data for May 31, 2026. Any subsequent revisions will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as data for the specified date has been published. If no data for the specified date has been published by June 14, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve based on data for the most recent date prior to May 31, 2026, for which data is available.
This market will resolve based on the first publication of data for May 31, 2026. Any subsequent revisions will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.
マーケット開始日： Apr 30, 2026, 3:15 PM ET
音量
$307,909終了日
2026/05/31マーケット開始日
Apr 30, 2026, 3:15 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the 7-day moving average of transit calls (“Arrivals of Ships”) for the Strait of Hormuz that IMF Portwatch reports for May 31, 2026.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as data for the specified date has been published. If no data for the specified date has been published by June 14, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve based on data for the most recent date prior to May 31, 2026, for which data is available.
This market will resolve based on the first publication of data for May 31, 2026. Any subsequent revisions will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.Ongoing Iranian restrictions and heightened maritime risks in the Persian Gulf continue to suppress commercial transits through the Strait of Hormuz, a key global energy chokepoint. Shipping data through early May shows daily crossings averaging single digits or low teens—roughly 5-10 percent of pre-conflict levels—with recent figures including just nine vessels on May 3 amid renewed warnings from Tehran against foreign naval involvement. These conditions have persisted since late February despite periodic diplomatic signals, creating sustained uncertainty for tanker and cargo movements. Trader consensus reflects this environment, assigning the strongest implied probability to persistently low average daily volumes by month-end while assigning minimal weight to any rapid rebound.
This market will resolve according to the 7-day moving average of transit calls (“Arrivals of Ships”) for the Strait of Hormuz that IMF Portwatch reports for May 31, 2026.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as data for the specified date has been published. If no data for the specified date has been published by June 14, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve based on data for the most recent date prior to May 31, 2026, for which data is available.
This market will resolve based on the first publication of data for May 31, 2026. Any subsequent revisions will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as data for the specified date has been published. If no data for the specified date has been published by June 14, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve based on data for the most recent date prior to May 31, 2026, for which data is available.
This market will resolve based on the first publication of data for May 31, 2026. Any subsequent revisions will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.
音量
$307,909終了日
2026/05/31マーケット開始日
Apr 30, 2026, 3:15 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Ongoing Iranian restrictions and heightened maritime risks in the Persian Gulf continue to suppress commercial transits through the Strait of Hormuz, a key global energy chokepoint. Shipping data through early May shows daily crossings averaging single digits or low teens—roughly 5-10 percent of pre-conflict levels—with recent figures including just nine vessels on May 3 amid renewed warnings from Tehran against foreign naval involvement. These conditions have persisted since late February despite periodic diplomatic signals, creating sustained uncertainty for tanker and cargo movements. Trader consensus reflects this environment, assigning the strongest implied probability to persistently low average daily volumes by month-end while assigning minimal weight to any rapid rebound.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日
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