Traders assign a 76.5% probability to no further expulsion of an Iranian diplomat by June 30, reflecting the absence of new actions since Argentina declared Iran’s chargé d’affaires persona non grata in early April. A series of expulsions occurred earlier in 2026, including Saudi Arabia’s removal of five embassy officials in March, Lebanon’s expulsion of its ambassador the same month, and the United States’ quiet December 2025 departure of Iran’s deputy UN envoy over security concerns. With no comparable diplomatic measures reported in the subsequent six weeks, market pricing indicates that recent regional tensions have not produced additional immediate triggers for expulsion. Resolution depends on any country formally declaring an Iranian diplomat persona non grata before the deadline.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日新規
新規
2026/06/30
新規
新規
2026/06/30
This market will resolve to “Yes” if any country expels an Iranian diplomat stationed in that country between market creation and June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
For the purposes of this market, “expel” refers to a formal action by the relevant country ordering the Iranian diplomat to leave, including a declaration of persona non grata.
An announcement of a qualifying expulsion will suffice for a “Yes” resolution, regardless of whether the relevant diplomat actually leaves the country.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the relevant country; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Traders assign a 76.5% probability to no further expulsion of an Iranian diplomat by June 30, reflecting the absence of new actions since Argentina declared Iran’s chargé d’affaires persona non grata in early April. A series of expulsions occurred earlier in 2026, including Saudi Arabia’s removal of five embassy officials in March, Lebanon’s expulsion of its ambassador the same month, and the United States’ quiet December 2025 departure of Iran’s deputy UN envoy over security concerns. With no comparable diplomatic measures reported in the subsequent six weeks, market pricing indicates that recent regional tensions have not produced additional immediate triggers for expulsion. Resolution depends on any country formally declaring an Iranian diplomat persona non grata before the deadline.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if any country expels an Iranian diplomat stationed in that country between market creation and June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
For the purposes of this market, “expel” refers to a formal action by the relevant country ordering the Iranian diplomat to leave, including a declaration of persona non grata.
An announcement of a qualifying expulsion will suffice for a “Yes” resolution, regardless of whether the relevant diplomat actually leaves the country.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the relevant country; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
For the purposes of this market, “expel” refers to a formal action by the relevant country ordering the Iranian diplomat to leave, including a declaration of persona non grata.
An announcement of a qualifying expulsion will suffice for a “Yes” resolution, regardless of whether the relevant diplomat actually leaves the country.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the relevant country; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
マーケット開始日： Apr 30, 2026, 2:37 PM ET
音量
$7,649終了日
2026/06/30マーケット開始日
Apr 30, 2026, 2:37 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “Yes” if any country expels an Iranian diplomat stationed in that country between market creation and June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
For the purposes of this market, “expel” refers to a formal action by the relevant country ordering the Iranian diplomat to leave, including a declaration of persona non grata.
An announcement of a qualifying expulsion will suffice for a “Yes” resolution, regardless of whether the relevant diplomat actually leaves the country.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the relevant country; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Traders assign a 76.5% probability to no further expulsion of an Iranian diplomat by June 30, reflecting the absence of new actions since Argentina declared Iran’s chargé d’affaires persona non grata in early April. A series of expulsions occurred earlier in 2026, including Saudi Arabia’s removal of five embassy officials in March, Lebanon’s expulsion of its ambassador the same month, and the United States’ quiet December 2025 departure of Iran’s deputy UN envoy over security concerns. With no comparable diplomatic measures reported in the subsequent six weeks, market pricing indicates that recent regional tensions have not produced additional immediate triggers for expulsion. Resolution depends on any country formally declaring an Iranian diplomat persona non grata before the deadline.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if any country expels an Iranian diplomat stationed in that country between market creation and June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
For the purposes of this market, “expel” refers to a formal action by the relevant country ordering the Iranian diplomat to leave, including a declaration of persona non grata.
An announcement of a qualifying expulsion will suffice for a “Yes” resolution, regardless of whether the relevant diplomat actually leaves the country.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the relevant country; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
For the purposes of this market, “expel” refers to a formal action by the relevant country ordering the Iranian diplomat to leave, including a declaration of persona non grata.
An announcement of a qualifying expulsion will suffice for a “Yes” resolution, regardless of whether the relevant diplomat actually leaves the country.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the relevant country; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
音量
$7,649終了日
2026/06/30マーケット開始日
Apr 30, 2026, 2:37 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Traders assign a 76.5% probability to no further expulsion of an Iranian diplomat by June 30, reflecting the absence of new actions since Argentina declared Iran’s chargé d’affaires persona non grata in early April. A series of expulsions occurred earlier in 2026, including Saudi Arabia’s removal of five embassy officials in March, Lebanon’s expulsion of its ambassador the same month, and the United States’ quiet December 2025 departure of Iran’s deputy UN envoy over security concerns. With no comparable diplomatic measures reported in the subsequent six weeks, market pricing indicates that recent regional tensions have not produced additional immediate triggers for expulsion. Resolution depends on any country formally declaring an Iranian diplomat persona non grata before the deadline.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日
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