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政治·受賞歴

2026年ノーベル平和賞受賞者

icon for 2026年ノーベル平和賞受賞者
政治·受賞歴

2026年ノーベル平和賞受賞者

ドナルド・トランプ 10%

ユーリヤ・ナワリナヤ 8%

ウォロディミル・ゼレンスキー 6.1%

UNRWA 5.0%

Polymarket

$17,540,342 Vol.

ドナルド・トランプ 10%

ユーリヤ・ナワリナヤ 8%

ウォロディミル・ゼレンスキー 6.1%

UNRWA 5.0%

Polymarket

$17,540,342 Vol.

icon for ドナルド・トランプ

ドナルド・トランプ

$3,362,730 Vol.

10%

icon for ユーリヤ・ナワリナヤ

ユーリヤ・ナワリナヤ

$157,064 Vol.

8%

icon for ウォロディミル・ゼレンスキー

ウォロディミル・ゼレンスキー

$466,324 Vol.

6%

icon for UNRWA

UNRWA

$1,945,672 Vol.

5%

icon for タミム・ビン・ハマド・アル＝サーニー

タミム・ビン・ハマド・アル＝サーニー

$610,713 Vol.

4%

icon for 教皇レオ14世

教皇レオ14世

$698,528 Vol.

3%

icon for 国際司法裁判所

国際司法裁判所

$759,427 Vol.

2%

icon for ナレンドラ・モディ

ナレンドラ・モディ

$544,314 Vol.

2%

icon for 習近平

習近平

$1,136,360 Vol.

1%

icon for チャーリー・カーク

チャーリー・カーク

$898,111 Vol.

1%

icon for グレタ・トゥーンベリ

グレタ・トゥーンベリ

$1,189,239 Vol.

1%

icon for レジェップ・タイイップ・エルドアン

レジェップ・タイイップ・エルドアン

$703,104 Vol.

1%

icon for アフメド・アル＝シャラー

アフメド・アル＝シャラー

$941,055 Vol.

1%

icon for アントニオ・グテーレス

アントニオ・グテーレス

$413,179 Vol.

1%

icon for カーレド・マシャール

カーレド・マシャール

$447,744 Vol.

1%

icon for ムハンマド・ビン・サルマン

ムハンマド・ビン・サルマン

$812,343 Vol.

1%

icon for ジュリアン・アサンジ

ジュリアン・アサンジ

$494,610 Vol.

1%

icon for ウラジーミル・プーチン

ウラジーミル・プーチン

$738,044 Vol.

1%

icon for イーロン・マスク

イーロン・マスク

$725,961 Vol.

<1%

icon for ベンヤミン・ネタニヤフ

ベンヤミン・ネタニヤフ

$495,972 Vol.

<1%

This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 Nobel Peace Prize, as announced by the Norwegian Nobel Committee. If multiple listed individuals or entities jointly receive the prize, the market will resolve to a single winner. If Donald Trump, Volodymyr Zelenskyy, Benjamin Netanyahu, Vladimir Putin, or Elon Musk are among the recipients, the market will resolve to the highest-ranked among them in that exact order of precedence. If none of those five are among the winners and the prize is awarded jointly to at least one listed individual and at least one listed organization, the market will resolve in favor of the individual. If no prioritized individuals are among the winners and all listed recipients are of the same type (all individuals or all organizations), the market will resolve to the person whose last name, or the entity’s name, comes first in alphabetical order as listed in this market. If no official announcement regarding the 2026 Nobel Peace Prize has been made by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other." The resolution source for this market will be the first official announcement from the Norwegian Nobel Committee.In the 2026 Nobel Peace Prize market, trader consensus reflects a wide-open field with no dominant frontrunner, as Donald Trump’s 9.5% implied probability edges out Yulia Navalnaya at 7.5% and Volodymyr Zelenskyy at 6.1%. This tight clustering stems from the Norwegian committee’s history of rewarding unexpected diplomatic breakthroughs amid ongoing conflicts, including Navalnaya’s sustained human-rights advocacy, Zelenskyy’s wartime leadership, and Trump’s potential negotiation role. Multiple lower-probability contenders from international bodies and global figures further fragment sentiment, underscoring the prize’s unpredictable nature. The October announcement remains the key catalyst, with any major peace developments likely to reshape the current spread.

This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 Nobel Peace Prize, as announced by the Norwegian Nobel Committee.

If multiple listed individuals or entities jointly receive the prize, the market will resolve to a single winner. If Donald Trump, Volodymyr Zelenskyy, Benjamin Netanyahu, Vladimir Putin, or Elon Musk are among the recipients, the market will resolve to the highest-ranked among them in that exact order of precedence. If none of those five are among the winners and the prize is awarded jointly to at least one listed individual and at least one listed organization, the market will resolve in favor of the individual. If no prioritized individuals are among the winners and all listed recipients are of the same type (all individuals or all organizations), the market will resolve to the person whose last name, or the entity’s name, comes first in alphabetical order as listed in this market.

If no official announcement regarding the 2026 Nobel Peace Prize has been made by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other."

The resolution source for this market will be the first official announcement from the Norwegian Nobel Committee.
音量
$17,540,342
終了日
2026/10/10
マーケット開始日
Oct 16, 2025, 6:04 PM ET

Resolver

0x2F5e3684c...
This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 Nobel Peace Prize, as announced by the Norwegian Nobel Committee. If multiple listed individuals or entities jointly receive the prize, the market will resolve to a single winner. If Donald Trump, Volodymyr Zelenskyy, Benjamin Netanyahu, Vladimir Putin, or Elon Musk are among the recipients, the market will resolve to the highest-ranked among them in that exact order of precedence. If none of those five are among the winners and the prize is awarded jointly to at least one listed individual and at least one listed organization, the market will resolve in favor of the individual. If no prioritized individuals are among the winners and all listed recipients are of the same type (all individuals or all organizations), the market will resolve to the person whose last name, or the entity’s name, comes first in alphabetical order as listed in this market. If no official announcement regarding the 2026 Nobel Peace Prize has been made by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other." The resolution source for this market will be the first official announcement from the Norwegian Nobel Committee.
This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 Nobel Peace Prize, as announced by the Norwegian Nobel Committee. If multiple listed individuals or entities jointly receive the prize, the market will resolve to a single winner. If Donald Trump, Volodymyr Zelenskyy, Benjamin Netanyahu, Vladimir Putin, or Elon Musk are among the recipients, the market will resolve to the highest-ranked among them in that exact order of precedence. If none of those five are among the winners and the prize is awarded jointly to at least one listed individual and at least one listed organization, the market will resolve in favor of the individual. If no prioritized individuals are among the winners and all listed recipients are of the same type (all individuals or all organizations), the market will resolve to the person whose last name, or the entity’s name, comes first in alphabetical order as listed in this market. If no official announcement regarding the 2026 Nobel Peace Prize has been made by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other." The resolution source for this market will be the first official announcement from the Norwegian Nobel Committee.In the 2026 Nobel Peace Prize market, trader consensus reflects a wide-open field with no dominant frontrunner, as Donald Trump’s 9.5% implied probability edges out Yulia Navalnaya at 7.5% and Volodymyr Zelenskyy at 6.1%. This tight clustering stems from the Norwegian committee’s history of rewarding unexpected diplomatic breakthroughs amid ongoing conflicts, including Navalnaya’s sustained human-rights advocacy, Zelenskyy’s wartime leadership, and Trump’s potential negotiation role. Multiple lower-probability contenders from international bodies and global figures further fragment sentiment, underscoring the prize’s unpredictable nature. The October announcement remains the key catalyst, with any major peace developments likely to reshape the current spread.

This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 Nobel Peace Prize, as announced by the Norwegian Nobel Committee.

If multiple listed individuals or entities jointly receive the prize, the market will resolve to a single winner. If Donald Trump, Volodymyr Zelenskyy, Benjamin Netanyahu, Vladimir Putin, or Elon Musk are among the recipients, the market will resolve to the highest-ranked among them in that exact order of precedence. If none of those five are among the winners and the prize is awarded jointly to at least one listed individual and at least one listed organization, the market will resolve in favor of the individual. If no prioritized individuals are among the winners and all listed recipients are of the same type (all individuals or all organizations), the market will resolve to the person whose last name, or the entity’s name, comes first in alphabetical order as listed in this market.

If no official announcement regarding the 2026 Nobel Peace Prize has been made by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other."

The resolution source for this market will be the first official announcement from the Norwegian Nobel Committee.
音量
$17,540,342
終了日
2026/10/10
マーケット開始日
Oct 16, 2025, 6:04 PM ET

Resolver

0x2F5e3684c...
This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 Nobel Peace Prize, as announced by the Norwegian Nobel Committee. If multiple listed individuals or entities jointly receive the prize, the market will resolve to a single winner. If Donald Trump, Volodymyr Zelenskyy, Benjamin Netanyahu, Vladimir Putin, or Elon Musk are among the recipients, the market will resolve to the highest-ranked among them in that exact order of precedence. If none of those five are among the winners and the prize is awarded jointly to at least one listed individual and at least one listed organization, the market will resolve in favor of the individual. If no prioritized individuals are among the winners and all listed recipients are of the same type (all individuals or all organizations), the market will resolve to the person whose last name, or the entity’s name, comes first in alphabetical order as listed in this market. If no official announcement regarding the 2026 Nobel Peace Prize has been made by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other." The resolution source for this market will be the first official announcement from the Norwegian Nobel Committee.

外部リンクに注意してください。

よくある質問

「2026年ノーベル平和賞受賞者」はPolymarket上の20個の結果が可能な予測市場で、トレーダーが何が起こるかに基づいてシェアを売買します。現在のリード結果は「ドナルド・トランプ」で10%、次いで「ユーリヤ・ナワリナヤ」が8%です。価格はコミュニティのリアルタイム確率を反映しています。例えば、10¢で取引されているシェアは、市場がその結果に10%の確率を集合的に割り当てていることを意味します。これらのオッズは継続的に変化します。正しい結果のシェアは市場決済時に各$1で引き換え可能です。

本日現在、「2026年ノーベル平和賞受賞者」は$17.5 millionの総取引量を生み出しています（Oct 16, 2025のマーケット開始以来）。この取引活動レベルはPolymarketコミュニティの強い関与を反映し、現在のオッズが幅広い市場参加者によって形成されていることを保証します。このページで直接、ライブの価格変動を追跡し、任意の結果で取引できます。

「2026年ノーベル平和賞受賞者」で取引するには、このページに記載されている20個の利用可能な結果を閲覧します。各結果には市場の暗示確率を表す現在の価格が表示されています。ポジションを取るには、最も可能性が高いと思う結果を選び、「はい」で支持するか「いいえ」で反対するかを選択し、金額を入力して「取引」をクリックします。選んだ結果が市場決済時に正しければ、「はい」のシェアは各$1を支払います。正しくなければ$0です。決済前にいつでもシェアを売却できます。

「2026年ノーベル平和賞受賞者」の現在のフロントランナーは「ドナルド・トランプ」で10%であり、市場がこの結果に10%の確率を割り当てていることを意味します。次に近い結果は「ユーリヤ・ナワリナヤ」で8%です。これらのオッズはトレーダーがシェアを売買するにつれてリアルタイムで更新されます。頻繁に確認するか、このページをブックマークしてください。

「2026年ノーベル平和賞受賞者」の決済ルールは、各結果が勝者と宣言されるために何が起こる必要があるかを正確に定義しています。これには結果を決定するために使用される公式データソースも含まれます。このページのコメント上にある「ルール」セクションで完全な決済基準を確認できます。取引前にルールを注意深く読むことをお勧めします。