Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects near-unanimous confidence that China will not launch a military invasion of Taiwan by June 30, 2026, driven by the absence of observable People's Liberation Army preparations amid routine cross-strait exercises and diplomatic posturing. Recent U.S. intelligence assessments from March affirmed Beijing views invasion costs—economic derailment, U.S. deterrence via arms sales, and alliance risks—as prohibitively high, even beyond 2027, reinforced by the May 13 Trump-Xi summit where Taiwan tensions were aired without escalation signals. Ongoing Japan-Taiwan Strait transits and KMT visits elicited verbal rebukes but no mobilization shifts. Realistic shifts could stem from unforeseen crises like Taiwan independence moves or sudden PLA amphibious buildup, though structural barriers remain formidable in the tight seven-week window.