Trader consensus prices "No" at 80.5% for a China-Philippines military clash before 2027, driven by persistent gray-zone tactics that avoid kinetic armed conflict between regular forces. In late April, China's Liaoning carrier group and patrols responded to expansive US-Philippines-Japan Balikatan 2026 exercises without escalation, while a floating barrier at Scarborough Shoal and early May mutual accusations over reef landings at Iroquois Reef and research vessels in Philippine EEZs near Reed Bank remained at coast guard and militia levels. The 1951 US-Philippines mutual defense treaty deters full-scale engagement, alongside ASEAN-China Code of Conduct negotiations aiming for 2026 completion and shared economic stakes, though Philippine calls for an ASEAN maritime center highlight ongoing frictions.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日はい
$356,126 Vol.
$356,126 Vol.
2026/12/31
はい
$356,126 Vol.
$356,126 Vol.
2026/12/31
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a military encounter between the military forces of China (People's Republic of China) and Philippines between November 11, 2025, and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A "military encounter" is defined as any incident involving the use of force such as missile strikes, artillery fire, exchange of gunfire, or other forms of direct military engagement between Chinese and Philippine military forces. Non-violent actions, such as warning shots, artillery fire into uninhabited areas, or missile launches that land in territorial waters or pass through airspace, will not qualify for a "Yes" resolution. Intentional ship ramming that results in significant damage to (e.g., a hole in the hull) or the sinking of a military ship by another will count toward a "Yes" resolution, however minor damage (scrapes, dents) will not.
Note: the China Coast Guard (CCG) is part of the military, however Philippine Coast Guard (PCG) is not.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.Trader consensus prices "No" at 80.5% for a China-Philippines military clash before 2027, driven by persistent gray-zone tactics that avoid kinetic armed conflict between regular forces. In late April, China's Liaoning carrier group and patrols responded to expansive US-Philippines-Japan Balikatan 2026 exercises without escalation, while a floating barrier at Scarborough Shoal and early May mutual accusations over reef landings at Iroquois Reef and research vessels in Philippine EEZs near Reed Bank remained at coast guard and militia levels. The 1951 US-Philippines mutual defense treaty deters full-scale engagement, alongside ASEAN-China Code of Conduct negotiations aiming for 2026 completion and shared economic stakes, though Philippine calls for an ASEAN maritime center highlight ongoing frictions.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a military encounter between the military forces of China (People's Republic of China) and Philippines between November 11, 2025, and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A "military encounter" is defined as any incident involving the use of force such as missile strikes, artillery fire, exchange of gunfire, or other forms of direct military engagement between Chinese and Philippine military forces. Non-violent actions, such as warning shots, artillery fire into uninhabited areas, or missile launches that land in territorial waters or pass through airspace, will not qualify for a "Yes" resolution. Intentional ship ramming that results in significant damage to (e.g., a hole in the hull) or the sinking of a military ship by another will count toward a "Yes" resolution, however minor damage (scrapes, dents) will not.
Note: the China Coast Guard (CCG) is part of the military, however Philippine Coast Guard (PCG) is not.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
A "military encounter" is defined as any incident involving the use of force such as missile strikes, artillery fire, exchange of gunfire, or other forms of direct military engagement between Chinese and Philippine military forces. Non-violent actions, such as warning shots, artillery fire into uninhabited areas, or missile launches that land in territorial waters or pass through airspace, will not qualify for a "Yes" resolution. Intentional ship ramming that results in significant damage to (e.g., a hole in the hull) or the sinking of a military ship by another will count toward a "Yes" resolution, however minor damage (scrapes, dents) will not.
Note: the China Coast Guard (CCG) is part of the military, however Philippine Coast Guard (PCG) is not.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
マーケット開始日： Nov 13, 2025, 5:56 PM ET
音量
$356,126終了日
2026/12/31マーケット開始日
Nov 13, 2025, 5:56 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a military encounter between the military forces of China (People's Republic of China) and Philippines between November 11, 2025, and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A "military encounter" is defined as any incident involving the use of force such as missile strikes, artillery fire, exchange of gunfire, or other forms of direct military engagement between Chinese and Philippine military forces. Non-violent actions, such as warning shots, artillery fire into uninhabited areas, or missile launches that land in territorial waters or pass through airspace, will not qualify for a "Yes" resolution. Intentional ship ramming that results in significant damage to (e.g., a hole in the hull) or the sinking of a military ship by another will count toward a "Yes" resolution, however minor damage (scrapes, dents) will not.
Note: the China Coast Guard (CCG) is part of the military, however Philippine Coast Guard (PCG) is not.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.Trader consensus prices "No" at 80.5% for a China-Philippines military clash before 2027, driven by persistent gray-zone tactics that avoid kinetic armed conflict between regular forces. In late April, China's Liaoning carrier group and patrols responded to expansive US-Philippines-Japan Balikatan 2026 exercises without escalation, while a floating barrier at Scarborough Shoal and early May mutual accusations over reef landings at Iroquois Reef and research vessels in Philippine EEZs near Reed Bank remained at coast guard and militia levels. The 1951 US-Philippines mutual defense treaty deters full-scale engagement, alongside ASEAN-China Code of Conduct negotiations aiming for 2026 completion and shared economic stakes, though Philippine calls for an ASEAN maritime center highlight ongoing frictions.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a military encounter between the military forces of China (People's Republic of China) and Philippines between November 11, 2025, and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A "military encounter" is defined as any incident involving the use of force such as missile strikes, artillery fire, exchange of gunfire, or other forms of direct military engagement between Chinese and Philippine military forces. Non-violent actions, such as warning shots, artillery fire into uninhabited areas, or missile launches that land in territorial waters or pass through airspace, will not qualify for a "Yes" resolution. Intentional ship ramming that results in significant damage to (e.g., a hole in the hull) or the sinking of a military ship by another will count toward a "Yes" resolution, however minor damage (scrapes, dents) will not.
Note: the China Coast Guard (CCG) is part of the military, however Philippine Coast Guard (PCG) is not.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
A "military encounter" is defined as any incident involving the use of force such as missile strikes, artillery fire, exchange of gunfire, or other forms of direct military engagement between Chinese and Philippine military forces. Non-violent actions, such as warning shots, artillery fire into uninhabited areas, or missile launches that land in territorial waters or pass through airspace, will not qualify for a "Yes" resolution. Intentional ship ramming that results in significant damage to (e.g., a hole in the hull) or the sinking of a military ship by another will count toward a "Yes" resolution, however minor damage (scrapes, dents) will not.
Note: the China Coast Guard (CCG) is part of the military, however Philippine Coast Guard (PCG) is not.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
音量
$356,126終了日
2026/12/31マーケット開始日
Nov 13, 2025, 5:56 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Trader consensus prices "No" at 80.5% for a China-Philippines military clash before 2027, driven by persistent gray-zone tactics that avoid kinetic armed conflict between regular forces. In late April, China's Liaoning carrier group and patrols responded to expansive US-Philippines-Japan Balikatan 2026 exercises without escalation, while a floating barrier at Scarborough Shoal and early May mutual accusations over reef landings at Iroquois Reef and research vessels in Philippine EEZs near Reed Bank remained at coast guard and militia levels. The 1951 US-Philippines mutual defense treaty deters full-scale engagement, alongside ASEAN-China Code of Conduct negotiations aiming for 2026 completion and shared economic stakes, though Philippine calls for an ASEAN maritime center highlight ongoing frictions.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日
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