Zhang Youxia, the former first-ranked vice chairman of China’s Central Military Commission, was placed under formal investigation in late January 2026 for suspected serious violations of discipline and law, a standard euphemism for corruption-related offenses. As of mid-August 2026, Chinese authorities have announced no public trial, formal charges, or sentencing in the case. In China’s anti-corruption framework, investigations of senior PLA and party figures routinely extend many months or years before reaching court, reflecting procedural norms and the political sensitivity of high-level cases. Traders’ 90.5% implied probability for “No” aligns with these established timelines and the absence of any reported escalation in the seven months since the probe began.