Polls conducted in the final weeks before Israel's October 27 election project Likud at an average of 22-23 Knesset seats, well below its current 32-seat representation from the prior cycle. This consistent shortfall across multiple pollsters, including recent Kantar, Lazar, and Direct Polls surveys, has anchored trader assessments that the party will lose seats. Netanyahu's bloc averages around 51-52 seats, remaining short of a 61-seat majority in most aggregates, while security developments such as the FlyDubai incident have produced only marginal gains for Likud without reversing the broader decline. Opposition fragmentation and bloc tie scenarios further limit upside for the party heading into the vote.