Recent escalations have strained the US-Iran ceasefire first agreed in April 2026 and later extended indefinitely by President Trump. Israel and Iran exchanged missile strikes in early June, prompting Trump to urge both sides to halt attacks immediately while stating that a broader deal reopening the Strait of Hormuz remains reachable within days. Iranian demands for sanctions relief and asset releases have complicated indirect talks mediated by Pakistan, and limited US-Iran exchanges continued as recently as June 5-6. The fragile truce, described by Trump in May as on “life support,” now hinges on whether fresh violations or stalled negotiations trigger a formal US announcement ending it.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日新規
$574,745 Vol.
2026/06/13
6月12日
6%
6月15日
13%
6月30日
21%
$574,745 Vol.
6月12日
$317,589 Vol.
6%
6月15日
$163,472 Vol.
13%
6月30日
$83,868 Vol.
21%
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the U.S. publicly and officially announces, between Market Creation and the End Date (11:59 PM ET) that no ceasefire between the U.S. and Iran is in effect. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
Qualifying statements must clearly indicate that there is no longer any commitment in effect between the U.S. and Iran to refrain from military hostilities.
Statements that the US is no longer committed to such an agreement will qualify.
The expiration of a prior agreed ceasefire period without extension will not alone qualify.
Statements that merely reference violations, breaches, or non-compliance with the ceasefire will not alone qualify.
Announcements of a new agreement (e.g, a broader peace framework or ceasefire extension) that supersedes the initial ceasefire agreement while maintaining a mutual commitment to a halt in military hostilities will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official statements from Donald Trump, the U.S. government and the U.S. military; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Informal announcements, statements from unnamed sources, and leaks will not qualify.
Written public statements from Donald Trump (e.g., posts from his personal Truth Social account), and videos posted on his social media accounts, will qualify.
Note: this market will resolve solely based on whether a qualifying announcement is made within the specified timeframe. Whether the ceasefire actually ends in practice or whether hostilities resume will not be considered.Recent escalations have strained the US-Iran ceasefire first agreed in April 2026 and later extended indefinitely by President Trump. Israel and Iran exchanged missile strikes in early June, prompting Trump to urge both sides to halt attacks immediately while stating that a broader deal reopening the Strait of Hormuz remains reachable within days. Iranian demands for sanctions relief and asset releases have complicated indirect talks mediated by Pakistan, and limited US-Iran exchanges continued as recently as June 5-6. The fragile truce, described by Trump in May as on “life support,” now hinges on whether fresh violations or stalled negotiations trigger a formal US announcement ending it.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the U.S. publicly and officially announces, between Market Creation and the End Date (11:59 PM ET) that no ceasefire between the U.S. and Iran is in effect. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
Qualifying statements must clearly indicate that there is no longer any commitment in effect between the U.S. and Iran to refrain from military hostilities.
Statements that the US is no longer committed to such an agreement will qualify.
The expiration of a prior agreed ceasefire period without extension will not alone qualify.
Statements that merely reference violations, breaches, or non-compliance with the ceasefire will not alone qualify.
Announcements of a new agreement (e.g, a broader peace framework or ceasefire extension) that supersedes the initial ceasefire agreement while maintaining a mutual commitment to a halt in military hostilities will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official statements from Donald Trump, the U.S. government and the U.S. military; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Informal announcements, statements from unnamed sources, and leaks will not qualify.
Written public statements from Donald Trump (e.g., posts from his personal Truth Social account), and videos posted on his social media accounts, will qualify.
Note: this market will resolve solely based on whether a qualifying announcement is made within the specified timeframe. Whether the ceasefire actually ends in practice or whether hostilities resume will not be considered.
Qualifying statements must clearly indicate that there is no longer any commitment in effect between the U.S. and Iran to refrain from military hostilities.
Statements that the US is no longer committed to such an agreement will qualify.
The expiration of a prior agreed ceasefire period without extension will not alone qualify.
Statements that merely reference violations, breaches, or non-compliance with the ceasefire will not alone qualify.
Announcements of a new agreement (e.g, a broader peace framework or ceasefire extension) that supersedes the initial ceasefire agreement while maintaining a mutual commitment to a halt in military hostilities will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official statements from Donald Trump, the U.S. government and the U.S. military; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Informal announcements, statements from unnamed sources, and leaks will not qualify.
Written public statements from Donald Trump (e.g., posts from his personal Truth Social account), and videos posted on his social media accounts, will qualify.
Note: this market will resolve solely based on whether a qualifying announcement is made within the specified timeframe. Whether the ceasefire actually ends in practice or whether hostilities resume will not be considered.
マーケット開始日： Jun 8, 2026, 9:53 PM ET
音量
$574,745終了日
2026/06/30マーケット開始日
Jun 8, 2026, 9:53 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if the U.S. publicly and officially announces, between Market Creation and the End Date (11:59 PM ET) that no ceasefire between the U.S. and Iran is in effect. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
Qualifying statements must clearly indicate that there is no longer any commitment in effect between the U.S. and Iran to refrain from military hostilities.
Statements that the US is no longer committed to such an agreement will qualify.
The expiration of a prior agreed ceasefire period without extension will not alone qualify.
Statements that merely reference violations, breaches, or non-compliance with the ceasefire will not alone qualify.
Announcements of a new agreement (e.g, a broader peace framework or ceasefire extension) that supersedes the initial ceasefire agreement while maintaining a mutual commitment to a halt in military hostilities will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official statements from Donald Trump, the U.S. government and the U.S. military; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Informal announcements, statements from unnamed sources, and leaks will not qualify.
Written public statements from Donald Trump (e.g., posts from his personal Truth Social account), and videos posted on his social media accounts, will qualify.
Note: this market will resolve solely based on whether a qualifying announcement is made within the specified timeframe. Whether the ceasefire actually ends in practice or whether hostilities resume will not be considered.Recent escalations have strained the US-Iran ceasefire first agreed in April 2026 and later extended indefinitely by President Trump. Israel and Iran exchanged missile strikes in early June, prompting Trump to urge both sides to halt attacks immediately while stating that a broader deal reopening the Strait of Hormuz remains reachable within days. Iranian demands for sanctions relief and asset releases have complicated indirect talks mediated by Pakistan, and limited US-Iran exchanges continued as recently as June 5-6. The fragile truce, described by Trump in May as on “life support,” now hinges on whether fresh violations or stalled negotiations trigger a formal US announcement ending it.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the U.S. publicly and officially announces, between Market Creation and the End Date (11:59 PM ET) that no ceasefire between the U.S. and Iran is in effect. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
Qualifying statements must clearly indicate that there is no longer any commitment in effect between the U.S. and Iran to refrain from military hostilities.
Statements that the US is no longer committed to such an agreement will qualify.
The expiration of a prior agreed ceasefire period without extension will not alone qualify.
Statements that merely reference violations, breaches, or non-compliance with the ceasefire will not alone qualify.
Announcements of a new agreement (e.g, a broader peace framework or ceasefire extension) that supersedes the initial ceasefire agreement while maintaining a mutual commitment to a halt in military hostilities will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official statements from Donald Trump, the U.S. government and the U.S. military; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Informal announcements, statements from unnamed sources, and leaks will not qualify.
Written public statements from Donald Trump (e.g., posts from his personal Truth Social account), and videos posted on his social media accounts, will qualify.
Note: this market will resolve solely based on whether a qualifying announcement is made within the specified timeframe. Whether the ceasefire actually ends in practice or whether hostilities resume will not be considered.
Qualifying statements must clearly indicate that there is no longer any commitment in effect between the U.S. and Iran to refrain from military hostilities.
Statements that the US is no longer committed to such an agreement will qualify.
The expiration of a prior agreed ceasefire period without extension will not alone qualify.
Statements that merely reference violations, breaches, or non-compliance with the ceasefire will not alone qualify.
Announcements of a new agreement (e.g, a broader peace framework or ceasefire extension) that supersedes the initial ceasefire agreement while maintaining a mutual commitment to a halt in military hostilities will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official statements from Donald Trump, the U.S. government and the U.S. military; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Informal announcements, statements from unnamed sources, and leaks will not qualify.
Written public statements from Donald Trump (e.g., posts from his personal Truth Social account), and videos posted on his social media accounts, will qualify.
Note: this market will resolve solely based on whether a qualifying announcement is made within the specified timeframe. Whether the ceasefire actually ends in practice or whether hostilities resume will not be considered.
音量
$574,745終了日
2026/06/30マーケット開始日
Jun 8, 2026, 9:53 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Recent escalations have strained the US-Iran ceasefire first agreed in April 2026 and later extended indefinitely by President Trump. Israel and Iran exchanged missile strikes in early June, prompting Trump to urge both sides to halt attacks immediately while stating that a broader deal reopening the Strait of Hormuz remains reachable within days. Iranian demands for sanctions relief and asset releases have complicated indirect talks mediated by Pakistan, and limited US-Iran exchanges continued as recently as June 5-6. The fragile truce, described by Trump in May as on “life support,” now hinges on whether fresh violations or stalled negotiations trigger a formal US announcement ending it.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日
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