Iran’s decisions on airspace access remain closely tied to its ongoing military tensions with the United States and Israel. Large-scale strikes on Iranian targets beginning February 28, 2026, prompted immediate nationwide closures and regional flight restrictions, followed by Iranian missile and drone responses. Partial reopening occurred in April, with temporary western-sector shutdowns imposed in May amid fresh strike concerns and mediation efforts. As of early June, multiple governments continue to advise avoidance of the Tehran FIR due to elevated alert levels for air defenses, creating recurring operational disruptions. Any further escalation or de-escalation in bilateral diplomacy could directly influence short-term closure patterns and resolution timing for related markets.