Recent diplomatic momentum in US-Iran talks, including indirect negotiations mediated by Oman and Pakistan, has supported the 66.5% implied probability for a nuclear agreement by July 31. President Trump has publicly stated that a memorandum of understanding is largely finalized, with possible electronic signing imminent on issues such as a ceasefire extension, reopening the Strait of Hormuz, and sanctions relief, while core nuclear elements like enrichment limits and verification receive follow-on technical discussions. Iranian officials have signaled openness to limits in exchange for relief but emphasize that details remain unresolved. These developments, building on earlier 2026 rounds and post-conflict stabilization efforts, reflect trader consensus on accelerating bilateral progress, though persistent gaps on enrichment levels and IAEA monitoring introduce timing uncertainty within the resolution window.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日$340,216 Vol.
$340,216 Vol.
2026/07/31
$340,216 Vol.
$340,216 Vol.
2026/07/31
This market will resolve to "Yes" if an official agreement over Iranian nuclear research and/or nuclear weapon development, defined as a publicly announced mutual agreement, is reached between the United States and Iran by July 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If such an agreement is officially reached before the resolution date, this market will resolve to "Yes", regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect.
Agreements that include the United States and Iran as parties, even if they also involve other countries (e.g., a multilateral deal like the JCPOA), will qualify for resolution.
The primary resolution source for this market will be an official announcement by the United States and/or the Islamic Republic of Iran, however an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirming an agreement has been reached will also qualify.Recent diplomatic momentum in US-Iran talks, including indirect negotiations mediated by Oman and Pakistan, has supported the 66.5% implied probability for a nuclear agreement by July 31. President Trump has publicly stated that a memorandum of understanding is largely finalized, with possible electronic signing imminent on issues such as a ceasefire extension, reopening the Strait of Hormuz, and sanctions relief, while core nuclear elements like enrichment limits and verification receive follow-on technical discussions. Iranian officials have signaled openness to limits in exchange for relief but emphasize that details remain unresolved. These developments, building on earlier 2026 rounds and post-conflict stabilization efforts, reflect trader consensus on accelerating bilateral progress, though persistent gaps on enrichment levels and IAEA monitoring introduce timing uncertainty within the resolution window.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if an official agreement over Iranian nuclear research and/or nuclear weapon development, defined as a publicly announced mutual agreement, is reached between the United States and Iran by July 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If such an agreement is officially reached before the resolution date, this market will resolve to "Yes", regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect.
Agreements that include the United States and Iran as parties, even if they also involve other countries (e.g., a multilateral deal like the JCPOA), will qualify for resolution.
The primary resolution source for this market will be an official announcement by the United States and/or the Islamic Republic of Iran, however an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirming an agreement has been reached will also qualify.
If such an agreement is officially reached before the resolution date, this market will resolve to "Yes", regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect.
Agreements that include the United States and Iran as parties, even if they also involve other countries (e.g., a multilateral deal like the JCPOA), will qualify for resolution.
The primary resolution source for this market will be an official announcement by the United States and/or the Islamic Republic of Iran, however an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirming an agreement has been reached will also qualify.
マーケット開始日： May 26, 2026, 1:02 AM ET
音量
$340,216終了日
2026/07/31マーケット開始日
May 26, 2026, 1:02 AM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if an official agreement over Iranian nuclear research and/or nuclear weapon development, defined as a publicly announced mutual agreement, is reached between the United States and Iran by July 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If such an agreement is officially reached before the resolution date, this market will resolve to "Yes", regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect.
Agreements that include the United States and Iran as parties, even if they also involve other countries (e.g., a multilateral deal like the JCPOA), will qualify for resolution.
The primary resolution source for this market will be an official announcement by the United States and/or the Islamic Republic of Iran, however an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirming an agreement has been reached will also qualify.Recent diplomatic momentum in US-Iran talks, including indirect negotiations mediated by Oman and Pakistan, has supported the 66.5% implied probability for a nuclear agreement by July 31. President Trump has publicly stated that a memorandum of understanding is largely finalized, with possible electronic signing imminent on issues such as a ceasefire extension, reopening the Strait of Hormuz, and sanctions relief, while core nuclear elements like enrichment limits and verification receive follow-on technical discussions. Iranian officials have signaled openness to limits in exchange for relief but emphasize that details remain unresolved. These developments, building on earlier 2026 rounds and post-conflict stabilization efforts, reflect trader consensus on accelerating bilateral progress, though persistent gaps on enrichment levels and IAEA monitoring introduce timing uncertainty within the resolution window.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if an official agreement over Iranian nuclear research and/or nuclear weapon development, defined as a publicly announced mutual agreement, is reached between the United States and Iran by July 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If such an agreement is officially reached before the resolution date, this market will resolve to "Yes", regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect.
Agreements that include the United States and Iran as parties, even if they also involve other countries (e.g., a multilateral deal like the JCPOA), will qualify for resolution.
The primary resolution source for this market will be an official announcement by the United States and/or the Islamic Republic of Iran, however an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirming an agreement has been reached will also qualify.
If such an agreement is officially reached before the resolution date, this market will resolve to "Yes", regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect.
Agreements that include the United States and Iran as parties, even if they also involve other countries (e.g., a multilateral deal like the JCPOA), will qualify for resolution.
The primary resolution source for this market will be an official announcement by the United States and/or the Islamic Republic of Iran, however an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirming an agreement has been reached will also qualify.
音量
$340,231終了日
2026/07/31マーケット開始日
May 26, 2026, 1:02 AM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Recent diplomatic momentum in US-Iran talks, including indirect negotiations mediated by Oman and Pakistan, has supported the 66.5% implied probability for a nuclear agreement by July 31. President Trump has publicly stated that a memorandum of understanding is largely finalized, with possible electronic signing imminent on issues such as a ceasefire extension, reopening the Strait of Hormuz, and sanctions relief, while core nuclear elements like enrichment limits and verification receive follow-on technical discussions. Iranian officials have signaled openness to limits in exchange for relief but emphasize that details remain unresolved. These developments, building on earlier 2026 rounds and post-conflict stabilization efforts, reflect trader consensus on accelerating bilateral progress, though persistent gaps on enrichment levels and IAEA monitoring introduce timing uncertainty within the resolution window.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日
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