Recent US-Iran peace developments and gradual easing of Hormuz restrictions have driven closely matched market-implied odds, with 150+ transits at 45.5% and several mid-range bins near 44.5%, reflecting uncertainty over the speed of normalization. Pre-conflict daily averages exceeded 130-160 vessels, but February 2026 hostilities and subsequent blockades slashed flows sharply, stranding tankers and creating backlogs. Recent AIS data shows weekend peaks near 109 vessels and modest daily gains into the low 40s by late June, supported by LNG and VLCC movements, yet persistent mine risks, clearance requirements, and shipowner caution continue to cap volumes. Key swing factors for the June 29 week include the pace of backlog clearance and any final deal implementation milestones, as traders weigh historical base rates against current security frictions in this critical oil chokepoint.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日150+ 48%
125-149 45%
75-99 40%
100-124 39%
新規
新規
2026/07/05
<75
39%
75-99
40%
100-124
39%
125-149
45%
150+
48%
150+ 48%
125-149 45%
75-99 40%
100-124 39%
新規
新規
2026/07/05
<75
$0 Vol.
39%
75-99
$0 Vol.
40%
100-124
$0 Vol.
39%
125-149
$0 Vol.
45%
150+
$0 Vol.
48%
This market will resolve according to the finalized total number of transit calls that IMF Portwatch reports for the Strait of Hormuz for all days from June 29, 2026, through July 5, 2026, inclusive.
Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
Data for a specific date must be finalized before it is considered for this market (namely, once the next date's data point is available, the previous one is finalized).
This market will resolve as soon as data has been finalized for the final date in the specified period. If the data for the final date of the specified period has not been finalized by the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the day on which such data is released, this market will resolve based on data published up to that point. Additionally, if not all relevant data has been released and finalized within 14 calendar days of the end of the specified period, this market will resolve based on data published up to that point.
In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF Portwatch differs from alternative sources.
Only revisions to previously published data points made before the applicable resolution time will be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.Recent US-Iran peace developments and gradual easing of Hormuz restrictions have driven closely matched market-implied odds, with 150+ transits at 45.5% and several mid-range bins near 44.5%, reflecting uncertainty over the speed of normalization. Pre-conflict daily averages exceeded 130-160 vessels, but February 2026 hostilities and subsequent blockades slashed flows sharply, stranding tankers and creating backlogs. Recent AIS data shows weekend peaks near 109 vessels and modest daily gains into the low 40s by late June, supported by LNG and VLCC movements, yet persistent mine risks, clearance requirements, and shipowner caution continue to cap volumes. Key swing factors for the June 29 week include the pace of backlog clearance and any final deal implementation milestones, as traders weigh historical base rates against current security frictions in this critical oil chokepoint.
This market will resolve according to the finalized total number of transit calls that IMF Portwatch reports for the Strait of Hormuz for all days from June 29, 2026, through July 5, 2026, inclusive.
Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
Data for a specific date must be finalized before it is considered for this market (namely, once the next date's data point is available, the previous one is finalized).
This market will resolve as soon as data has been finalized for the final date in the specified period. If the data for the final date of the specified period has not been finalized by the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the day on which such data is released, this market will resolve based on data published up to that point. Additionally, if not all relevant data has been released and finalized within 14 calendar days of the end of the specified period, this market will resolve based on data published up to that point.
In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF Portwatch differs from alternative sources.
Only revisions to previously published data points made before the applicable resolution time will be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.
Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
Data for a specific date must be finalized before it is considered for this market (namely, once the next date's data point is available, the previous one is finalized).
This market will resolve as soon as data has been finalized for the final date in the specified period. If the data for the final date of the specified period has not been finalized by the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the day on which such data is released, this market will resolve based on data published up to that point. Additionally, if not all relevant data has been released and finalized within 14 calendar days of the end of the specified period, this market will resolve based on data published up to that point.
In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF Portwatch differs from alternative sources.
Only revisions to previously published data points made before the applicable resolution time will be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.
マーケット開始日： Jun 26, 2026, 1:24 PM ET
音量
$0終了日
2026/07/05マーケット開始日
Jun 26, 2026, 1:24 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the finalized total number of transit calls that IMF Portwatch reports for the Strait of Hormuz for all days from June 29, 2026, through July 5, 2026, inclusive.
Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
Data for a specific date must be finalized before it is considered for this market (namely, once the next date's data point is available, the previous one is finalized).
This market will resolve as soon as data has been finalized for the final date in the specified period. If the data for the final date of the specified period has not been finalized by the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the day on which such data is released, this market will resolve based on data published up to that point. Additionally, if not all relevant data has been released and finalized within 14 calendar days of the end of the specified period, this market will resolve based on data published up to that point.
In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF Portwatch differs from alternative sources.
Only revisions to previously published data points made before the applicable resolution time will be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.Recent US-Iran peace developments and gradual easing of Hormuz restrictions have driven closely matched market-implied odds, with 150+ transits at 45.5% and several mid-range bins near 44.5%, reflecting uncertainty over the speed of normalization. Pre-conflict daily averages exceeded 130-160 vessels, but February 2026 hostilities and subsequent blockades slashed flows sharply, stranding tankers and creating backlogs. Recent AIS data shows weekend peaks near 109 vessels and modest daily gains into the low 40s by late June, supported by LNG and VLCC movements, yet persistent mine risks, clearance requirements, and shipowner caution continue to cap volumes. Key swing factors for the June 29 week include the pace of backlog clearance and any final deal implementation milestones, as traders weigh historical base rates against current security frictions in this critical oil chokepoint.
This market will resolve according to the finalized total number of transit calls that IMF Portwatch reports for the Strait of Hormuz for all days from June 29, 2026, through July 5, 2026, inclusive.
Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
Data for a specific date must be finalized before it is considered for this market (namely, once the next date's data point is available, the previous one is finalized).
This market will resolve as soon as data has been finalized for the final date in the specified period. If the data for the final date of the specified period has not been finalized by the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the day on which such data is released, this market will resolve based on data published up to that point. Additionally, if not all relevant data has been released and finalized within 14 calendar days of the end of the specified period, this market will resolve based on data published up to that point.
In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF Portwatch differs from alternative sources.
Only revisions to previously published data points made before the applicable resolution time will be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.
Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
Data for a specific date must be finalized before it is considered for this market (namely, once the next date's data point is available, the previous one is finalized).
This market will resolve as soon as data has been finalized for the final date in the specified period. If the data for the final date of the specified period has not been finalized by the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the day on which such data is released, this market will resolve based on data published up to that point. Additionally, if not all relevant data has been released and finalized within 14 calendar days of the end of the specified period, this market will resolve based on data published up to that point.
In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF Portwatch differs from alternative sources.
Only revisions to previously published data points made before the applicable resolution time will be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.
音量
$0終了日
2026/07/05マーケット開始日
Jun 26, 2026, 1:24 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent US-Iran peace developments and gradual easing of Hormuz restrictions have driven closely matched market-implied odds, with 150+ transits at 45.5% and several mid-range bins near 44.5%, reflecting uncertainty over the speed of normalization. Pre-conflict daily averages exceeded 130-160 vessels, but February 2026 hostilities and subsequent blockades slashed flows sharply, stranding tankers and creating backlogs. Recent AIS data shows weekend peaks near 109 vessels and modest daily gains into the low 40s by late June, supported by LNG and VLCC movements, yet persistent mine risks, clearance requirements, and shipowner caution continue to cap volumes. Key swing factors for the June 29 week include the pace of backlog clearance and any final deal implementation milestones, as traders weigh historical base rates against current security frictions in this critical oil chokepoint.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日
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