**Ongoing US-mediated direct talks and a newly announced framework agreement are keeping the market tight on the timing of the next Israel-Lebanon diplomatic meeting.** As of late June 2026, the fifth round of high-level trilateral negotiations concluded in Washington with US Secretary of State Marco Rubio announcing a framework deal for lasting peace and security. This includes ceasefire implementation, Hezbollah’s withdrawal from areas south of the Litani River, and mechanisms for Israeli troop disengagement alongside Lebanese army deployment in pilot zones. Earlier rounds (including one on June 2–3) had already produced a conditional ceasefire contingent on Hezbollah ceasing fire and evacuating operatives, though Hezbollah rejected key elements and attacks have persisted in the south. These developments explain why probabilities for a meeting by July 10 (41.5%), July 17 (41.0%), or July 31 (47.5%) remain so closely matched. Traders are pricing in continued momentum from the recent Washington track—encompassing both political and military components—while noting structural hurdles such as Hezbollah’s stance, Iranian influence, and the need for additional verification or follow-up sessions. Historical patterns of incremental progress in similar mediated processes suggest the next substantive diplomatic engagement could fall in any of the three windows, sustaining the tight race until clearer signals emerge on implementation timelines.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日July 31 50%
July 10 42%
July 17 41%
新規
新規
2026/07/31
July 10
42%
July 17
41%
July 31
50%
July 31 50%
July 10 42%
July 17 41%
新規
新規
2026/07/31
July 10
$0 Vol.
42%
July 17
$0 Vol.
41%
July 31
$0 Vol.
50%
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a diplomatic meeting between representatives of Israel and Lebanon by the listed date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
A diplomatic meeting refers to a deliberate meeting between representatives of the listed countries who are acting in an official capacity and are authorized to engage in negotiation or diplomacy regarding Israel-Lebanon relations on behalf of their governments. Meetings conducted indirectly, for example, through designated mediators, facilitators, or interlocutors acting with the knowledge and authorization of the relevant governments, will qualify.
Brief greetings, chance encounters, or talks otherwise not deliberately aimed at diplomacy or negotiation will not count.
The meeting must be in-person (including indirect in-person meetings) and must be publicly acknowledged by either government or reported by a consensus of credible media. Remote meetings, phone calls, or other meetings where the relevant parties are not present will not count.
The resolution sources for this market will be official information from the governments of the Israel and Lebanon, and a consensus of credible reporting.**Ongoing US-mediated direct talks and a newly announced framework agreement are keeping the market tight on the timing of the next Israel-Lebanon diplomatic meeting.**
As of late June 2026, the fifth round of high-level trilateral negotiations concluded in Washington with US Secretary of State Marco Rubio announcing a framework deal for lasting peace and security. This includes ceasefire implementation, Hezbollah’s withdrawal from areas south of the Litani River, and mechanisms for Israeli troop disengagement alongside Lebanese army deployment in pilot zones. Earlier rounds (including one on June 2–3) had already produced a conditional ceasefire contingent on Hezbollah ceasing fire and evacuating operatives, though Hezbollah rejected key elements and attacks have persisted in the south.
These developments explain why probabilities for a meeting by July 10 (41.5%), July 17 (41.0%), or July 31 (47.5%) remain so closely matched. Traders are pricing in continued momentum from the recent Washington track—encompassing both political and military components—while noting structural hurdles such as Hezbollah’s stance, Iranian influence, and the need for additional verification or follow-up sessions. Historical patterns of incremental progress in similar mediated processes suggest the next substantive diplomatic engagement could fall in any of the three windows, sustaining the tight race until clearer signals emerge on implementation timelines.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a diplomatic meeting between representatives of Israel and Lebanon by the listed date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
A diplomatic meeting refers to a deliberate meeting between representatives of the listed countries who are acting in an official capacity and are authorized to engage in negotiation or diplomacy regarding Israel-Lebanon relations on behalf of their governments. Meetings conducted indirectly, for example, through designated mediators, facilitators, or interlocutors acting with the knowledge and authorization of the relevant governments, will qualify.
Brief greetings, chance encounters, or talks otherwise not deliberately aimed at diplomacy or negotiation will not count.
The meeting must be in-person (including indirect in-person meetings) and must be publicly acknowledged by either government or reported by a consensus of credible media. Remote meetings, phone calls, or other meetings where the relevant parties are not present will not count.
The resolution sources for this market will be official information from the governments of the Israel and Lebanon, and a consensus of credible reporting.
A diplomatic meeting refers to a deliberate meeting between representatives of the listed countries who are acting in an official capacity and are authorized to engage in negotiation or diplomacy regarding Israel-Lebanon relations on behalf of their governments. Meetings conducted indirectly, for example, through designated mediators, facilitators, or interlocutors acting with the knowledge and authorization of the relevant governments, will qualify.
Brief greetings, chance encounters, or talks otherwise not deliberately aimed at diplomacy or negotiation will not count.
The meeting must be in-person (including indirect in-person meetings) and must be publicly acknowledged by either government or reported by a consensus of credible media. Remote meetings, phone calls, or other meetings where the relevant parties are not present will not count.
The resolution sources for this market will be official information from the governments of the Israel and Lebanon, and a consensus of credible reporting.
マーケット開始日： Jun 26, 2026, 4:47 PM ET
音量
$0終了日
2026/07/31マーケット開始日
Jun 26, 2026, 4:47 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a diplomatic meeting between representatives of Israel and Lebanon by the listed date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
A diplomatic meeting refers to a deliberate meeting between representatives of the listed countries who are acting in an official capacity and are authorized to engage in negotiation or diplomacy regarding Israel-Lebanon relations on behalf of their governments. Meetings conducted indirectly, for example, through designated mediators, facilitators, or interlocutors acting with the knowledge and authorization of the relevant governments, will qualify.
Brief greetings, chance encounters, or talks otherwise not deliberately aimed at diplomacy or negotiation will not count.
The meeting must be in-person (including indirect in-person meetings) and must be publicly acknowledged by either government or reported by a consensus of credible media. Remote meetings, phone calls, or other meetings where the relevant parties are not present will not count.
The resolution sources for this market will be official information from the governments of the Israel and Lebanon, and a consensus of credible reporting.**Ongoing US-mediated direct talks and a newly announced framework agreement are keeping the market tight on the timing of the next Israel-Lebanon diplomatic meeting.**
As of late June 2026, the fifth round of high-level trilateral negotiations concluded in Washington with US Secretary of State Marco Rubio announcing a framework deal for lasting peace and security. This includes ceasefire implementation, Hezbollah’s withdrawal from areas south of the Litani River, and mechanisms for Israeli troop disengagement alongside Lebanese army deployment in pilot zones. Earlier rounds (including one on June 2–3) had already produced a conditional ceasefire contingent on Hezbollah ceasing fire and evacuating operatives, though Hezbollah rejected key elements and attacks have persisted in the south.
These developments explain why probabilities for a meeting by July 10 (41.5%), July 17 (41.0%), or July 31 (47.5%) remain so closely matched. Traders are pricing in continued momentum from the recent Washington track—encompassing both political and military components—while noting structural hurdles such as Hezbollah’s stance, Iranian influence, and the need for additional verification or follow-up sessions. Historical patterns of incremental progress in similar mediated processes suggest the next substantive diplomatic engagement could fall in any of the three windows, sustaining the tight race until clearer signals emerge on implementation timelines.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a diplomatic meeting between representatives of Israel and Lebanon by the listed date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
A diplomatic meeting refers to a deliberate meeting between representatives of the listed countries who are acting in an official capacity and are authorized to engage in negotiation or diplomacy regarding Israel-Lebanon relations on behalf of their governments. Meetings conducted indirectly, for example, through designated mediators, facilitators, or interlocutors acting with the knowledge and authorization of the relevant governments, will qualify.
Brief greetings, chance encounters, or talks otherwise not deliberately aimed at diplomacy or negotiation will not count.
The meeting must be in-person (including indirect in-person meetings) and must be publicly acknowledged by either government or reported by a consensus of credible media. Remote meetings, phone calls, or other meetings where the relevant parties are not present will not count.
The resolution sources for this market will be official information from the governments of the Israel and Lebanon, and a consensus of credible reporting.
A diplomatic meeting refers to a deliberate meeting between representatives of the listed countries who are acting in an official capacity and are authorized to engage in negotiation or diplomacy regarding Israel-Lebanon relations on behalf of their governments. Meetings conducted indirectly, for example, through designated mediators, facilitators, or interlocutors acting with the knowledge and authorization of the relevant governments, will qualify.
Brief greetings, chance encounters, or talks otherwise not deliberately aimed at diplomacy or negotiation will not count.
The meeting must be in-person (including indirect in-person meetings) and must be publicly acknowledged by either government or reported by a consensus of credible media. Remote meetings, phone calls, or other meetings where the relevant parties are not present will not count.
The resolution sources for this market will be official information from the governments of the Israel and Lebanon, and a consensus of credible reporting.
音量
$0終了日
2026/07/31マーケット開始日
Jun 26, 2026, 4:47 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...**Ongoing US-mediated direct talks and a newly announced framework agreement are keeping the market tight on the timing of the next Israel-Lebanon diplomatic meeting.** As of late June 2026, the fifth round of high-level trilateral negotiations concluded in Washington with US Secretary of State Marco Rubio announcing a framework deal for lasting peace and security. This includes ceasefire implementation, Hezbollah’s withdrawal from areas south of the Litani River, and mechanisms for Israeli troop disengagement alongside Lebanese army deployment in pilot zones. Earlier rounds (including one on June 2–3) had already produced a conditional ceasefire contingent on Hezbollah ceasing fire and evacuating operatives, though Hezbollah rejected key elements and attacks have persisted in the south. These developments explain why probabilities for a meeting by July 10 (41.5%), July 17 (41.0%), or July 31 (47.5%) remain so closely matched. Traders are pricing in continued momentum from the recent Washington track—encompassing both political and military components—while noting structural hurdles such as Hezbollah’s stance, Iranian influence, and the need for additional verification or follow-up sessions. Historical patterns of incremental progress in similar mediated processes suggest the next substantive diplomatic engagement could fall in any of the three windows, sustaining the tight race until clearer signals emerge on implementation timelines.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日
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