US-mediated direct talks between Israel and Lebanon, resumed on May 14 following a fragile ceasefire extended into late May from its April 16 start, represent the first diplomatic contacts in over 40 years amid border tensions with Hezbollah. Trader consensus implying 78.5% odds against normalization before 2027 reflects core sticking points: Israel's precondition of Hezbollah's complete disarmament and dismantlement of its infrastructure south of the Litani River, Lebanon's rejection of "normalization" in favor of mere peace as affirmed by Prime Minister Nawaf Salam on May 6, and deep domestic divisions in Lebanon lacking consensus for full diplomatic relations. Absent breakthroughs on these security demands, historical enmity sustains skepticism for a treaty by year-end.