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icon for 6月30日までにイランに入国するのは誰ですか？
政治·イラン

6月30日までにイランに入国するのは誰ですか？

icon for 6月30日までにイランに入国するのは誰ですか？
政治·イラン

6月30日までにイランに入国するのは誰ですか？

$388,367 Vol.

2026/06/30
Polymarket

$388,367 Vol.

Polymarket

米下院議員

$86,764 Vol.

5%

アメリカ上院議員

$29,990 Vol.

3%

ジャレッド・クシュナー

$15,604 Vol.

2%

マルコ・ルビオ

$21,470 Vol.

2%

ピート・ヘグセス

$92,649 Vol.

2%

JD・ヴァンス

$30,931 Vol.

2%

ベンヤミン・ネタニヤフ

$42,284 Vol.

1%

ドナルド・トランプ

$68,675 Vol.

1%

If the listed person visits Iran between market creation and June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Yes". Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". For the purpose of this market, a "visit" is defined as the listed person physically entering the terrestrial territory of Iran. Whether or not the listed person enters Iranian airspace or maritime territory during the timeframe of this market will have no bearing on a positive resolution. For markets referring to “any U.S. House member” or “any U.S. Senator,” the individual must be a duly sworn and actively serving member of the respective chamber of the United States Congress at the time of entry into Iran. Former members, members-elect who have not yet been sworn in, and individuals who have resigned, been expelled, or otherwise ceased serving prior to entry will not qualify for a positive resolution. The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.Trader consensus assigns just 5% odds to any active U.S. House member entering Iranian terrestrial territory by June 30—the market leader—amid the ongoing U.S.-Iran war sparked by February airstrikes under Operation Epic Fury, with all other outcomes like U.S. senators (3%), Pete Hegseth (2%), or Donald Trump (<1%) even lower due to persistent hostilities and no announced visits. President Trump's May 13 statement that the ceasefire is on "life support" after rejecting Tehran's counterproposal, May 7 violations, Gulf states' strikes on Iranian targets, and Tehran's reconstitution of missile stockpiles as of May 13 have reinforced IRGC ground defenses, blocking de-escalation pathways. Vice President JD Vance cited indirect talks progress on May 14 via Pakistan, but Pentagon emphasis on limited operations without invasion keeps entry prospects dim ahead of potential Hormuz blockade shifts.

If the listed person visits Iran between market creation and June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Yes". Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

For the purpose of this market, a "visit" is defined as the listed person physically entering the terrestrial territory of Iran. Whether or not the listed person enters Iranian airspace or maritime territory during the timeframe of this market will have no bearing on a positive resolution.

For markets referring to “any U.S. House member” or “any U.S. Senator,” the individual must be a duly sworn and actively serving member of the respective chamber of the United States Congress at the time of entry into Iran. Former members, members-elect who have not yet been sworn in, and individuals who have resigned, been expelled, or otherwise ceased serving prior to entry will not qualify for a positive resolution.

The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
音量
$388,367
終了日
2026/06/30
マーケット開始日
Mar 1, 2026, 3:08 PM ET

Resolver

0x65070BE91...
If the listed person visits Iran between market creation and June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Yes". Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". For the purpose of this market, a "visit" is defined as the listed person physically entering the terrestrial territory of Iran. Whether or not the listed person enters Iranian airspace or maritime territory during the timeframe of this market will have no bearing on a positive resolution. For markets referring to “any U.S. House member” or “any U.S. Senator,” the individual must be a duly sworn and actively serving member of the respective chamber of the United States Congress at the time of entry into Iran. Former members, members-elect who have not yet been sworn in, and individuals who have resigned, been expelled, or otherwise ceased serving prior to entry will not qualify for a positive resolution. The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
If the listed person visits Iran between market creation and June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Yes". Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". For the purpose of this market, a "visit" is defined as the listed person physically entering the terrestrial territory of Iran. Whether or not the listed person enters Iranian airspace or maritime territory during the timeframe of this market will have no bearing on a positive resolution. For markets referring to “any U.S. House member” or “any U.S. Senator,” the individual must be a duly sworn and actively serving member of the respective chamber of the United States Congress at the time of entry into Iran. Former members, members-elect who have not yet been sworn in, and individuals who have resigned, been expelled, or otherwise ceased serving prior to entry will not qualify for a positive resolution. The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.Trader consensus assigns just 5% odds to any active U.S. House member entering Iranian terrestrial territory by June 30—the market leader—amid the ongoing U.S.-Iran war sparked by February airstrikes under Operation Epic Fury, with all other outcomes like U.S. senators (3%), Pete Hegseth (2%), or Donald Trump (<1%) even lower due to persistent hostilities and no announced visits. President Trump's May 13 statement that the ceasefire is on "life support" after rejecting Tehran's counterproposal, May 7 violations, Gulf states' strikes on Iranian targets, and Tehran's reconstitution of missile stockpiles as of May 13 have reinforced IRGC ground defenses, blocking de-escalation pathways. Vice President JD Vance cited indirect talks progress on May 14 via Pakistan, but Pentagon emphasis on limited operations without invasion keeps entry prospects dim ahead of potential Hormuz blockade shifts.

If the listed person visits Iran between market creation and June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Yes". Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

For the purpose of this market, a "visit" is defined as the listed person physically entering the terrestrial territory of Iran. Whether or not the listed person enters Iranian airspace or maritime territory during the timeframe of this market will have no bearing on a positive resolution.

For markets referring to “any U.S. House member” or “any U.S. Senator,” the individual must be a duly sworn and actively serving member of the respective chamber of the United States Congress at the time of entry into Iran. Former members, members-elect who have not yet been sworn in, and individuals who have resigned, been expelled, or otherwise ceased serving prior to entry will not qualify for a positive resolution.

The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
音量
$388,367
終了日
2026/06/30
マーケット開始日
Mar 1, 2026, 3:08 PM ET

Resolver

0x65070BE91...
If the listed person visits Iran between market creation and June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Yes". Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". For the purpose of this market, a "visit" is defined as the listed person physically entering the terrestrial territory of Iran. Whether or not the listed person enters Iranian airspace or maritime territory during the timeframe of this market will have no bearing on a positive resolution. For markets referring to “any U.S. House member” or “any U.S. Senator,” the individual must be a duly sworn and actively serving member of the respective chamber of the United States Congress at the time of entry into Iran. Former members, members-elect who have not yet been sworn in, and individuals who have resigned, been expelled, or otherwise ceased serving prior to entry will not qualify for a positive resolution. The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.

外部リンクに注意してください。

よくある質問

「6月30日までにイランに入国するのは誰ですか？」はPolymarket上の8個の結果が可能な予測市場で、トレーダーが何が起こるかに基づいてシェアを売買します。現在のリード結果は「米下院議員」で5%、次いで「アメリカ上院議員」が3%です。価格はコミュニティのリアルタイム確率を反映しています。例えば、5¢で取引されているシェアは、市場がその結果に5%の確率を集合的に割り当てていることを意味します。これらのオッズは継続的に変化します。正しい結果のシェアは市場決済時に各$1で引き換え可能です。

本日現在、「6月30日までにイランに入国するのは誰ですか？」は$388.4Kの総取引量を生み出しています（Mar 1, 2026のマーケット開始以来）。この取引活動レベルはPolymarketコミュニティの強い関与を反映し、現在のオッズが幅広い市場参加者によって形成されていることを保証します。このページで直接、ライブの価格変動を追跡し、任意の結果で取引できます。

「6月30日までにイランに入国するのは誰ですか？」で取引するには、このページに記載されている8個の利用可能な結果を閲覧します。各結果には市場の暗示確率を表す現在の価格が表示されています。ポジションを取るには、最も可能性が高いと思う結果を選び、「はい」で支持するか「いいえ」で反対するかを選択し、金額を入力して「取引」をクリックします。選んだ結果が市場決済時に正しければ、「はい」のシェアは各$1を支払います。正しくなければ$0です。決済前にいつでもシェアを売却できます。

これは非常に拮抗した市場です。「6月30日までにイランに入国するのは誰ですか？」の現在のリーダーは「米下院議員」でわずか5%、「アメリカ上院議員」が3%で僅差です。どの結果も強い多数派を占めていないため、トレーダーはこれを非常に不確実と見ており、独自の取引機会を提供する可能性があります。これらのオッズはリアルタイムで更新されますので、このページをブックマークしてください。

「6月30日までにイランに入国するのは誰ですか？」の決済ルールは、各結果が勝者と宣言されるために何が起こる必要があるかを正確に定義しています。これには結果を決定するために使用される公式データソースも含まれます。このページのコメント上にある「ルール」セクションで完全な決済基準を確認できます。取引前にルールを注意深く読むことをお勧めします。