Ongoing military tensions with the US and Israel, including recent June 2026 exchanges of strikes over the Strait of Hormuz and shipping incidents, continue to test the regime's endurance following the 2026 war that killed Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei and damaged military infrastructure. Trader sentiment reflects a balance between the Islamic Republic's demonstrated resilience—through elite cohesion, rapid leadership replacement, brutal suppression of 2025–2026 protests, and sustained control despite economic collapse, sanctions, and infrastructure strain—and the cumulative pressures of depleted proxies, currency freefall, and fragile ceasefire negotiations with a 60-day timeline for nuclear issues. Further escalation or renewed mass unrest could shift probabilities toward collapse, while de-escalation via talks or regime consolidation might reinforce stability through September 30.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日Will the Iranian regime fall by September 30?
Will the Iranian regime fall by September 30?
新規
新規
2026/09/30
新規
新規
2026/09/30
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Islamic Republic of Iran’s current ruling regime is overthrown, collapsed, or otherwise ceases to govern by September 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This requires a broad consensus of reporting indicating that core structures of the Islamic Republic (e.g. the office of the Supreme Leader, the Guardian Council, IRGC control under clerical authority) have been dissolved, incapacitated, or replaced by a fundamentally different governing system or otherwise lost de facto power over a majority of the population of Iran. This could occur via revolution, civil war, military coup, or voluntary abdication, but only qualifies if the Islamic Republic no longer exercises sovereign power.
Routine political events such as elections, reforms, or leadership succession do not qualify. Internal coups or power shifts that preserve the Islamic Republic’s core structures also do not qualify. Only a clear break in continuity—such as a new provisional government, revolutionary council, or constitution replacing the Islamic Republic will qualify.
Partial loss of territory or challenges from rebel or exile groups will not qualify unless the Islamic Republic no longer administers the majority of the Iranian population within Iran.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting. Ongoing military tensions with the US and Israel, including recent June 2026 exchanges of strikes over the Strait of Hormuz and shipping incidents, continue to test the regime's endurance following the 2026 war that killed Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei and damaged military infrastructure. Trader sentiment reflects a balance between the Islamic Republic's demonstrated resilience—through elite cohesion, rapid leadership replacement, brutal suppression of 2025–2026 protests, and sustained control despite economic collapse, sanctions, and infrastructure strain—and the cumulative pressures of depleted proxies, currency freefall, and fragile ceasefire negotiations with a 60-day timeline for nuclear issues. Further escalation or renewed mass unrest could shift probabilities toward collapse, while de-escalation via talks or regime consolidation might reinforce stability through September 30.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Islamic Republic of Iran’s current ruling regime is overthrown, collapsed, or otherwise ceases to govern by September 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This requires a broad consensus of reporting indicating that core structures of the Islamic Republic (e.g. the office of the Supreme Leader, the Guardian Council, IRGC control under clerical authority) have been dissolved, incapacitated, or replaced by a fundamentally different governing system or otherwise lost de facto power over a majority of the population of Iran. This could occur via revolution, civil war, military coup, or voluntary abdication, but only qualifies if the Islamic Republic no longer exercises sovereign power.
Routine political events such as elections, reforms, or leadership succession do not qualify. Internal coups or power shifts that preserve the Islamic Republic’s core structures also do not qualify. Only a clear break in continuity—such as a new provisional government, revolutionary council, or constitution replacing the Islamic Republic will qualify.
Partial loss of territory or challenges from rebel or exile groups will not qualify unless the Islamic Republic no longer administers the majority of the Iranian population within Iran.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
This requires a broad consensus of reporting indicating that core structures of the Islamic Republic (e.g. the office of the Supreme Leader, the Guardian Council, IRGC control under clerical authority) have been dissolved, incapacitated, or replaced by a fundamentally different governing system or otherwise lost de facto power over a majority of the population of Iran. This could occur via revolution, civil war, military coup, or voluntary abdication, but only qualifies if the Islamic Republic no longer exercises sovereign power.
Routine political events such as elections, reforms, or leadership succession do not qualify. Internal coups or power shifts that preserve the Islamic Republic’s core structures also do not qualify. Only a clear break in continuity—such as a new provisional government, revolutionary council, or constitution replacing the Islamic Republic will qualify.
Partial loss of territory or challenges from rebel or exile groups will not qualify unless the Islamic Republic no longer administers the majority of the Iranian population within Iran.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
マーケット開始日： Jun 29, 2026, 7:51 PM ET
音量
$0終了日
2026/09/30マーケット開始日
Jun 29, 2026, 7:51 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Islamic Republic of Iran’s current ruling regime is overthrown, collapsed, or otherwise ceases to govern by September 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This requires a broad consensus of reporting indicating that core structures of the Islamic Republic (e.g. the office of the Supreme Leader, the Guardian Council, IRGC control under clerical authority) have been dissolved, incapacitated, or replaced by a fundamentally different governing system or otherwise lost de facto power over a majority of the population of Iran. This could occur via revolution, civil war, military coup, or voluntary abdication, but only qualifies if the Islamic Republic no longer exercises sovereign power.
Routine political events such as elections, reforms, or leadership succession do not qualify. Internal coups or power shifts that preserve the Islamic Republic’s core structures also do not qualify. Only a clear break in continuity—such as a new provisional government, revolutionary council, or constitution replacing the Islamic Republic will qualify.
Partial loss of territory or challenges from rebel or exile groups will not qualify unless the Islamic Republic no longer administers the majority of the Iranian population within Iran.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting. Ongoing military tensions with the US and Israel, including recent June 2026 exchanges of strikes over the Strait of Hormuz and shipping incidents, continue to test the regime's endurance following the 2026 war that killed Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei and damaged military infrastructure. Trader sentiment reflects a balance between the Islamic Republic's demonstrated resilience—through elite cohesion, rapid leadership replacement, brutal suppression of 2025–2026 protests, and sustained control despite economic collapse, sanctions, and infrastructure strain—and the cumulative pressures of depleted proxies, currency freefall, and fragile ceasefire negotiations with a 60-day timeline for nuclear issues. Further escalation or renewed mass unrest could shift probabilities toward collapse, while de-escalation via talks or regime consolidation might reinforce stability through September 30.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Islamic Republic of Iran’s current ruling regime is overthrown, collapsed, or otherwise ceases to govern by September 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This requires a broad consensus of reporting indicating that core structures of the Islamic Republic (e.g. the office of the Supreme Leader, the Guardian Council, IRGC control under clerical authority) have been dissolved, incapacitated, or replaced by a fundamentally different governing system or otherwise lost de facto power over a majority of the population of Iran. This could occur via revolution, civil war, military coup, or voluntary abdication, but only qualifies if the Islamic Republic no longer exercises sovereign power.
Routine political events such as elections, reforms, or leadership succession do not qualify. Internal coups or power shifts that preserve the Islamic Republic’s core structures also do not qualify. Only a clear break in continuity—such as a new provisional government, revolutionary council, or constitution replacing the Islamic Republic will qualify.
Partial loss of territory or challenges from rebel or exile groups will not qualify unless the Islamic Republic no longer administers the majority of the Iranian population within Iran.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
This requires a broad consensus of reporting indicating that core structures of the Islamic Republic (e.g. the office of the Supreme Leader, the Guardian Council, IRGC control under clerical authority) have been dissolved, incapacitated, or replaced by a fundamentally different governing system or otherwise lost de facto power over a majority of the population of Iran. This could occur via revolution, civil war, military coup, or voluntary abdication, but only qualifies if the Islamic Republic no longer exercises sovereign power.
Routine political events such as elections, reforms, or leadership succession do not qualify. Internal coups or power shifts that preserve the Islamic Republic’s core structures also do not qualify. Only a clear break in continuity—such as a new provisional government, revolutionary council, or constitution replacing the Islamic Republic will qualify.
Partial loss of territory or challenges from rebel or exile groups will not qualify unless the Islamic Republic no longer administers the majority of the Iranian population within Iran.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
音量
$0終了日
2026/09/30マーケット開始日
Jun 29, 2026, 7:51 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Ongoing military tensions with the US and Israel, including recent June 2026 exchanges of strikes over the Strait of Hormuz and shipping incidents, continue to test the regime's endurance following the 2026 war that killed Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei and damaged military infrastructure. Trader sentiment reflects a balance between the Islamic Republic's demonstrated resilience—through elite cohesion, rapid leadership replacement, brutal suppression of 2025–2026 protests, and sustained control despite economic collapse, sanctions, and infrastructure strain—and the cumulative pressures of depleted proxies, currency freefall, and fragile ceasefire negotiations with a 60-day timeline for nuclear issues. Further escalation or renewed mass unrest could shift probabilities toward collapse, while de-escalation via talks or regime consolidation might reinforce stability through September 30.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日
外部リンクに注意してください。
外部リンクに注意してください。
よくある質問