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icon for 2026年、アメリカはいくつの異なる国に対して軍事行動を起こすでしょうか？
世界·外交政策

2026年、アメリカはいくつの異なる国に対して軍事行動を起こすでしょうか？

icon for 2026年、アメリカはいくつの異なる国に対して軍事行動を起こすでしょうか？
世界·外交政策

2026年、アメリカはいくつの異なる国に対して軍事行動を起こすでしょうか？

7 38.6%

8 33.6%

9 13.4%

10 3.9%

Polymarket

$1,249,377 Vol.

7 38.6%

8 33.6%

9 13.4%

10 3.9%

Polymarket

$1,249,377 Vol.

icon for 7

7

$11,298 Vol.

39%

icon for 8

8

$106,917 Vol.

34%

icon for 9

9

$16,741 Vol.

13%

icon for 10

10

$14,961 Vol.

4%

icon for 11

11

$18,145 Vol.

4%

icon for 12

12

$33,610 Vol.

1%

icon for 13

13

$84,660 Vol.

2%

icon for 14

14

$137,977 Vol.

1%

icon for 15以上

15以上

$120,886 Vol.

1%

This market will resolve according to the total number of different countries' soil that the United States initiates a drone, missile, or air strike on between January 1, 2026, 12:00 AM ET and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Strikes on embassies or consulates will count towards the country the embassy or consulate is located in, not towards the country they represent. Strikes within the territory controlled by the United States as of December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET will not be counted towards this market's resolution. For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by US military forces that impact another country's ground territory that is officially acknowledged by the US government or a consensus of credible reporting. Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not count towards the resolution of this market, regardless of whether they land on another country's territory or cause damage. Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by US ground operatives will not qualify. The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.Trader consensus on Polymarket prices seven distinct countries at 38.6% implied probability for US military actions in 2026, narrowly ahead of eight at 33.6%, reflecting confirmed strikes year-to-date in Venezuela (January raid capturing Nicolás Maduro), Iran (February joint strikes with Israel sparking the short 2026 Iran war, plus May 7 retaliatory airstrikes on military sites), Syria (January ISIS operations), Somalia (ongoing al-Shabaab and ISIS drone strikes, including May 6), Iraq, Nigeria, and maritime counter-drug actions in the Eastern Pacific/Caribbean without a single new sovereign target recently. The tight race persists amid steady counterterrorism via CENTCOM and AFRICOM without fresh escalations, though a Houthi resurgence in Yemen, expanded African operations, or Latin American cartel strikes could push toward eight or more by year-end; diplomatic Iran talks or de-escalation signals might cap at seven.

This market will resolve according to the total number of different countries' soil that the United States initiates a drone, missile, or air strike on between January 1, 2026, 12:00 AM ET and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.

Strikes on embassies or consulates will count towards the country the embassy or consulate is located in, not towards the country they represent.

Strikes within the territory controlled by the United States as of December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET will not be counted towards this market's resolution.

For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by US military forces that impact another country's ground territory that is officially acknowledged by the US government or a consensus of credible reporting.

Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not count towards the resolution of this market, regardless of whether they land on another country's territory or cause damage.

Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by US ground operatives will not qualify.

The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
音量
$1,249,377
終了日
2026/12/31
マーケット開始日
Nov 13, 2025, 11:15 AM ET

Resolver

0x2F5e3684c...
This market will resolve according to the total number of different countries' soil that the United States initiates a drone, missile, or air strike on between January 1, 2026, 12:00 AM ET and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Strikes on embassies or consulates will count towards the country the embassy or consulate is located in, not towards the country they represent. Strikes within the territory controlled by the United States as of December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET will not be counted towards this market's resolution. For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by US military forces that impact another country's ground territory that is officially acknowledged by the US government or a consensus of credible reporting. Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not count towards the resolution of this market, regardless of whether they land on another country's territory or cause damage. Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by US ground operatives will not qualify. The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
This market will resolve according to the total number of different countries' soil that the United States initiates a drone, missile, or air strike on between January 1, 2026, 12:00 AM ET and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Strikes on embassies or consulates will count towards the country the embassy or consulate is located in, not towards the country they represent. Strikes within the territory controlled by the United States as of December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET will not be counted towards this market's resolution. For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by US military forces that impact another country's ground territory that is officially acknowledged by the US government or a consensus of credible reporting. Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not count towards the resolution of this market, regardless of whether they land on another country's territory or cause damage. Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by US ground operatives will not qualify. The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.Trader consensus on Polymarket prices seven distinct countries at 38.6% implied probability for US military actions in 2026, narrowly ahead of eight at 33.6%, reflecting confirmed strikes year-to-date in Venezuela (January raid capturing Nicolás Maduro), Iran (February joint strikes with Israel sparking the short 2026 Iran war, plus May 7 retaliatory airstrikes on military sites), Syria (January ISIS operations), Somalia (ongoing al-Shabaab and ISIS drone strikes, including May 6), Iraq, Nigeria, and maritime counter-drug actions in the Eastern Pacific/Caribbean without a single new sovereign target recently. The tight race persists amid steady counterterrorism via CENTCOM and AFRICOM without fresh escalations, though a Houthi resurgence in Yemen, expanded African operations, or Latin American cartel strikes could push toward eight or more by year-end; diplomatic Iran talks or de-escalation signals might cap at seven.

This market will resolve according to the total number of different countries' soil that the United States initiates a drone, missile, or air strike on between January 1, 2026, 12:00 AM ET and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.

Strikes on embassies or consulates will count towards the country the embassy or consulate is located in, not towards the country they represent.

Strikes within the territory controlled by the United States as of December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET will not be counted towards this market's resolution.

For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by US military forces that impact another country's ground territory that is officially acknowledged by the US government or a consensus of credible reporting.

Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not count towards the resolution of this market, regardless of whether they land on another country's territory or cause damage.

Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by US ground operatives will not qualify.

The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
音量
$1,249,377
終了日
2026/12/31
マーケット開始日
Nov 13, 2025, 11:15 AM ET

Resolver

0x2F5e3684c...
This market will resolve according to the total number of different countries' soil that the United States initiates a drone, missile, or air strike on between January 1, 2026, 12:00 AM ET and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Strikes on embassies or consulates will count towards the country the embassy or consulate is located in, not towards the country they represent. Strikes within the territory controlled by the United States as of December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET will not be counted towards this market's resolution. For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by US military forces that impact another country's ground territory that is officially acknowledged by the US government or a consensus of credible reporting. Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not count towards the resolution of this market, regardless of whether they land on another country's territory or cause damage. Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by US ground operatives will not qualify. The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.

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よくある質問

「2026年、アメリカはいくつの異なる国に対して軍事行動を起こすでしょうか？」はPolymarket上の16個の結果が可能な予測市場で、トレーダーが何が起こるかに基づいてシェアを売買します。現在のリード結果は「7」で39%、次いで「8」が34%です。価格はコミュニティのリアルタイム確率を反映しています。例えば、39¢で取引されているシェアは、市場がその結果に39%の確率を集合的に割り当てていることを意味します。これらのオッズは継続的に変化します。正しい結果のシェアは市場決済時に各$1で引き換え可能です。

本日現在、「2026年、アメリカはいくつの異なる国に対して軍事行動を起こすでしょうか？」は$1.2 millionの総取引量を生み出しています（Nov 13, 2025のマーケット開始以来）。この取引活動レベルはPolymarketコミュニティの強い関与を反映し、現在のオッズが幅広い市場参加者によって形成されていることを保証します。このページで直接、ライブの価格変動を追跡し、任意の結果で取引できます。

「2026年、アメリカはいくつの異なる国に対して軍事行動を起こすでしょうか？」で取引するには、このページに記載されている16個の利用可能な結果を閲覧します。各結果には市場の暗示確率を表す現在の価格が表示されています。ポジションを取るには、最も可能性が高いと思う結果を選び、「はい」で支持するか「いいえ」で反対するかを選択し、金額を入力して「取引」をクリックします。選んだ結果が市場決済時に正しければ、「はい」のシェアは各$1を支払います。正しくなければ$0です。決済前にいつでもシェアを売却できます。

「2026年、アメリカはいくつの異なる国に対して軍事行動を起こすでしょうか？」の現在のフロントランナーは「7」で39%であり、市場がこの結果に39%の確率を割り当てていることを意味します。次に近い結果は「8」で34%です。これらのオッズはトレーダーがシェアを売買するにつれてリアルタイムで更新されます。頻繁に確認するか、このページをブックマークしてください。

「2026年、アメリカはいくつの異なる国に対して軍事行動を起こすでしょうか？」の決済ルールは、各結果が勝者と宣言されるために何が起こる必要があるかを正確に定義しています。これには結果を決定するために使用される公式データソースも含まれます。このページのコメント上にある「ルール」セクションで完全な決済基準を確認できます。取引前にルールを注意深く読むことをお勧めします。