The Trump administration's maximum-pressure campaign on Cuba, intensified after the January 2026 U.S. operation in Venezuela, has included an energy embargo cutting Venezuelan oil supplies, tariffs on third-country oil providers via executive order, expanded sanctions, and the May indictment of Raúl Castro over the 1996 Brothers to the Rescue shootdown. Visible military signaling—such as the USS Nimitz carrier strike group in the Caribbean, Marine deployments, surveillance flights, and SOUTHCOM training—combined with leaked intelligence on Cuban drone acquisitions from Russia and Iran, has sustained trader attention on potential strikes or regime-change operations. However, official statements have downplayed imminent action, while Cuba's economic collapse, diplomatic outreach, and warnings of high costs create uncertainty. With the 2026 midterms approaching and competing priorities like the Iran situation, traders assign low probability to military action materializing by year-end absent a major new trigger such as direct attacks on U.S. assets.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日$7,257,966 Vol.
2026/12/31
12月31日
20%
$7,257,966 Vol.
12月31日
$5,078,862 Vol.
20%
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a US-initiated drone, missile, or air strike on the soil of Cuba is announced or credibly reported to have occurred by the listed date ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including FPV and ATGM strikes as well as cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by any United States operatives, including military forces, intelligence agencies, or other U.S. government operatives, that physically impact ground territory within the listed country.
A strike on any area within the terrestrial territory (including rivers, lakes, ports, but excluding territorial sea) of the listed country counts.
Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution, regardless of whether they land territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, ground incursions, naval shelling, or cyberattacks will not qualify.
Any strike occurring during this market’s timeframe that is claimed by either Donald Trump or the U.S. government will qualify.
The primary resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
This market will remain open until the end of the second day after the resolution time. If the date/time of a qualifying strike cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting by that time, it will resolve to "No" regardless of whether a strike was later confirmed to have taken place.The Trump administration's maximum-pressure campaign on Cuba, intensified after the January 2026 U.S. operation in Venezuela, has included an energy embargo cutting Venezuelan oil supplies, tariffs on third-country oil providers via executive order, expanded sanctions, and the May indictment of Raúl Castro over the 1996 Brothers to the Rescue shootdown. Visible military signaling—such as the USS Nimitz carrier strike group in the Caribbean, Marine deployments, surveillance flights, and SOUTHCOM training—combined with leaked intelligence on Cuban drone acquisitions from Russia and Iran, has sustained trader attention on potential strikes or regime-change operations. However, official statements have downplayed imminent action, while Cuba's economic collapse, diplomatic outreach, and warnings of high costs create uncertainty. With the 2026 midterms approaching and competing priorities like the Iran situation, traders assign low probability to military action materializing by year-end absent a major new trigger such as direct attacks on U.S. assets.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a US-initiated drone, missile, or air strike on the soil of Cuba is announced or credibly reported to have occurred by the listed date ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including FPV and ATGM strikes as well as cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by any United States operatives, including military forces, intelligence agencies, or other U.S. government operatives, that physically impact ground territory within the listed country.
A strike on any area within the terrestrial territory (including rivers, lakes, ports, but excluding territorial sea) of the listed country counts.
Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution, regardless of whether they land territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, ground incursions, naval shelling, or cyberattacks will not qualify.
Any strike occurring during this market’s timeframe that is claimed by either Donald Trump or the U.S. government will qualify.
The primary resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
This market will remain open until the end of the second day after the resolution time. If the date/time of a qualifying strike cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting by that time, it will resolve to "No" regardless of whether a strike was later confirmed to have taken place.
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including FPV and ATGM strikes as well as cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by any United States operatives, including military forces, intelligence agencies, or other U.S. government operatives, that physically impact ground territory within the listed country.
A strike on any area within the terrestrial territory (including rivers, lakes, ports, but excluding territorial sea) of the listed country counts.
Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution, regardless of whether they land territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, ground incursions, naval shelling, or cyberattacks will not qualify.
Any strike occurring during this market’s timeframe that is claimed by either Donald Trump or the U.S. government will qualify.
The primary resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
This market will remain open until the end of the second day after the resolution time. If the date/time of a qualifying strike cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting by that time, it will resolve to "No" regardless of whether a strike was later confirmed to have taken place.
マーケット開始日： Jan 4, 2026, 3:08 PM ET
音量
$7,257,966終了日
2026/12/31マーケット開始日
Jan 4, 2026, 3:08 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if a US-initiated drone, missile, or air strike on the soil of Cuba is announced or credibly reported to have occurred by the listed date ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including FPV and ATGM strikes as well as cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by any United States operatives, including military forces, intelligence agencies, or other U.S. government operatives, that physically impact ground territory within the listed country.
A strike on any area within the terrestrial territory (including rivers, lakes, ports, but excluding territorial sea) of the listed country counts.
Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution, regardless of whether they land territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, ground incursions, naval shelling, or cyberattacks will not qualify.
Any strike occurring during this market’s timeframe that is claimed by either Donald Trump or the U.S. government will qualify.
The primary resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
This market will remain open until the end of the second day after the resolution time. If the date/time of a qualifying strike cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting by that time, it will resolve to "No" regardless of whether a strike was later confirmed to have taken place.The Trump administration's maximum-pressure campaign on Cuba, intensified after the January 2026 U.S. operation in Venezuela, has included an energy embargo cutting Venezuelan oil supplies, tariffs on third-country oil providers via executive order, expanded sanctions, and the May indictment of Raúl Castro over the 1996 Brothers to the Rescue shootdown. Visible military signaling—such as the USS Nimitz carrier strike group in the Caribbean, Marine deployments, surveillance flights, and SOUTHCOM training—combined with leaked intelligence on Cuban drone acquisitions from Russia and Iran, has sustained trader attention on potential strikes or regime-change operations. However, official statements have downplayed imminent action, while Cuba's economic collapse, diplomatic outreach, and warnings of high costs create uncertainty. With the 2026 midterms approaching and competing priorities like the Iran situation, traders assign low probability to military action materializing by year-end absent a major new trigger such as direct attacks on U.S. assets.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a US-initiated drone, missile, or air strike on the soil of Cuba is announced or credibly reported to have occurred by the listed date ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including FPV and ATGM strikes as well as cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by any United States operatives, including military forces, intelligence agencies, or other U.S. government operatives, that physically impact ground territory within the listed country.
A strike on any area within the terrestrial territory (including rivers, lakes, ports, but excluding territorial sea) of the listed country counts.
Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution, regardless of whether they land territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, ground incursions, naval shelling, or cyberattacks will not qualify.
Any strike occurring during this market’s timeframe that is claimed by either Donald Trump or the U.S. government will qualify.
The primary resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
This market will remain open until the end of the second day after the resolution time. If the date/time of a qualifying strike cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting by that time, it will resolve to "No" regardless of whether a strike was later confirmed to have taken place.
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including FPV and ATGM strikes as well as cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by any United States operatives, including military forces, intelligence agencies, or other U.S. government operatives, that physically impact ground territory within the listed country.
A strike on any area within the terrestrial territory (including rivers, lakes, ports, but excluding territorial sea) of the listed country counts.
Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution, regardless of whether they land territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, ground incursions, naval shelling, or cyberattacks will not qualify.
Any strike occurring during this market’s timeframe that is claimed by either Donald Trump or the U.S. government will qualify.
The primary resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
This market will remain open until the end of the second day after the resolution time. If the date/time of a qualifying strike cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting by that time, it will resolve to "No" regardless of whether a strike was later confirmed to have taken place.
音量
$7,257,966終了日
2026/12/31マーケット開始日
Jan 4, 2026, 3:08 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...The Trump administration's maximum-pressure campaign on Cuba, intensified after the January 2026 U.S. operation in Venezuela, has included an energy embargo cutting Venezuelan oil supplies, tariffs on third-country oil providers via executive order, expanded sanctions, and the May indictment of Raúl Castro over the 1996 Brothers to the Rescue shootdown. Visible military signaling—such as the USS Nimitz carrier strike group in the Caribbean, Marine deployments, surveillance flights, and SOUTHCOM training—combined with leaked intelligence on Cuban drone acquisitions from Russia and Iran, has sustained trader attention on potential strikes or regime-change operations. However, official statements have downplayed imminent action, while Cuba's economic collapse, diplomatic outreach, and warnings of high costs create uncertainty. With the 2026 midterms approaching and competing priorities like the Iran situation, traders assign low probability to military action materializing by year-end absent a major new trigger such as direct attacks on U.S. assets.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日
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