Incumbent São Paulo Governor Tarcísio de Freitas commands trader consensus at 82.5% implied probability for re-election on October 4, 2026, driven by consistent double-digit leads in recent polls like Genial/Quaest and Paraná Pesquisas from late April, where he garners 48-54% support against challengers, bolstered by a 64% approval rating amid infrastructure advances. Former Finance Minister Fernando Haddad trails at 12%, showing modest gains to around 33-42% in some surveys as the PT's likely candidate, while Kim Kataguiri, Márcio França, and Erika Hilton linger below 4% due to limited name recognition and fragmented opposition. High incumbency base rates and no major scandals sustain the lopsided odds ahead of campaign formalization in August.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日Tarcísio de Freitas 83%
Fernando Haddad 12.1%
キム・カタギリ 3.9%
Márcio França 1.4%
$21,533 Vol.
$21,533 Vol.
2026/10/04
Tarcísio de Freitas
83%
Fernando Haddad
12%
キム・カタギリ
4%
Márcio França
1%
Erika Hilton
1%
Tarcísio de Freitas 83%
Fernando Haddad 12.1%
キム・カタギリ 3.9%
Márcio França 1.4%
$21,533 Vol.
$21,533 Vol.
2026/10/04
Tarcísio de Freitas
$10,880 Vol.
83%
Fernando Haddad
$3,541 Vol.
12%
キム・カタギリ
$1,730 Vol.
4%
Márcio França
$2,343 Vol.
1%
Erika Hilton
$3,038 Vol.
1%
The São Paulo gubernatorial election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026, with a runoff on October 25, 2026, if no candidate receives a majority of the valid votes in the first round.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins this election.
Temporary, interim, or placeholder governors appointed by any means before the specified election will not be considered.
If the result of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).Incumbent São Paulo Governor Tarcísio de Freitas commands trader consensus at 82.5% implied probability for re-election on October 4, 2026, driven by consistent double-digit leads in recent polls like Genial/Quaest and Paraná Pesquisas from late April, where he garners 48-54% support against challengers, bolstered by a 64% approval rating amid infrastructure advances. Former Finance Minister Fernando Haddad trails at 12%, showing modest gains to around 33-42% in some surveys as the PT's likely candidate, while Kim Kataguiri, Márcio França, and Erika Hilton linger below 4% due to limited name recognition and fragmented opposition. High incumbency base rates and no major scandals sustain the lopsided odds ahead of campaign formalization in August.
The São Paulo gubernatorial election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026, with a runoff on October 25, 2026, if no candidate receives a majority of the valid votes in the first round.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins this election.
Temporary, interim, or placeholder governors appointed by any means before the specified election will not be considered.
If the result of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins this election.
Temporary, interim, or placeholder governors appointed by any means before the specified election will not be considered.
If the result of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).
マーケット開始日： Apr 27, 2026, 5:22 PM ET
音量
$21,533終了日
2026/10/04マーケット開始日
Apr 27, 2026, 5:22 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...The São Paulo gubernatorial election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026, with a runoff on October 25, 2026, if no candidate receives a majority of the valid votes in the first round.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins this election.
Temporary, interim, or placeholder governors appointed by any means before the specified election will not be considered.
If the result of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).Incumbent São Paulo Governor Tarcísio de Freitas commands trader consensus at 82.5% implied probability for re-election on October 4, 2026, driven by consistent double-digit leads in recent polls like Genial/Quaest and Paraná Pesquisas from late April, where he garners 48-54% support against challengers, bolstered by a 64% approval rating amid infrastructure advances. Former Finance Minister Fernando Haddad trails at 12%, showing modest gains to around 33-42% in some surveys as the PT's likely candidate, while Kim Kataguiri, Márcio França, and Erika Hilton linger below 4% due to limited name recognition and fragmented opposition. High incumbency base rates and no major scandals sustain the lopsided odds ahead of campaign formalization in August.
The São Paulo gubernatorial election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026, with a runoff on October 25, 2026, if no candidate receives a majority of the valid votes in the first round.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins this election.
Temporary, interim, or placeholder governors appointed by any means before the specified election will not be considered.
If the result of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins this election.
Temporary, interim, or placeholder governors appointed by any means before the specified election will not be considered.
If the result of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).
音量
$21,533終了日
2026/10/04マーケット開始日
Apr 27, 2026, 5:22 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Incumbent São Paulo Governor Tarcísio de Freitas commands trader consensus at 82.5% implied probability for re-election on October 4, 2026, driven by consistent double-digit leads in recent polls like Genial/Quaest and Paraná Pesquisas from late April, where he garners 48-54% support against challengers, bolstered by a 64% approval rating amid infrastructure advances. Former Finance Minister Fernando Haddad trails at 12%, showing modest gains to around 33-42% in some surveys as the PT's likely candidate, while Kim Kataguiri, Márcio França, and Erika Hilton linger below 4% due to limited name recognition and fragmented opposition. High incumbency base rates and no major scandals sustain the lopsided odds ahead of campaign formalization in August.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日
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