Tarcísio de Freitas holds a commanding lead in the São Paulo governor race due to his status as incumbent and consistent double-digit advantages in recent polling for the October 2026 first round. Surveys from Ideia, Genial/Quaest, and others place him at 41–53 percent against Fernando Haddad’s 26–37 percent, reflecting voter support for his administration and limited opposition momentum. Other candidates, including Erika Hilton, Kim Kataguiri, and Márcio França, register minimal support amid withdrawals and fragmented fields. Trader consensus aligns with these trends, though the outcome could shift if late campaign events, turnout changes in key regions, or unexpected developments alter first-round dynamics before the October runoff threshold.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日タルシジオ・ジ・フレイタス 94%
フェルナンド・ハダジ 4.0%
エリカ・ヒルトン <1%
キム・カタギリ <1%
$279,178 Vol.
$279,178 Vol.
2026/10/04
タルシジオ・ジ・フレイタス
94%
フェルナンド・ハダジ
4%
エリカ・ヒルトン
1%
キム・カタギリ
<1%
マルシオ・フランサ
<1%
タルシジオ・ジ・フレイタス 94%
フェルナンド・ハダジ 4.0%
エリカ・ヒルトン <1%
キム・カタギリ <1%
$279,178 Vol.
$279,178 Vol.
2026/10/04
タルシジオ・ジ・フレイタス
$123,143 Vol.
94%
フェルナンド・ハダジ
$46,886 Vol.
4%
エリカ・ヒルトン
$22,704 Vol.
1%
キム・カタギリ
$75,777 Vol.
<1%
マルシオ・フランサ
$10,668 Vol.
<1%
The São Paulo gubernatorial election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026, with a runoff on October 25, 2026, if no candidate receives a majority of the valid votes in the first round.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins this election.
Temporary, interim, or placeholder governors appointed by any means before the specified election will not be considered.
If the result of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).Tarcísio de Freitas holds a commanding lead in the São Paulo governor race due to his status as incumbent and consistent double-digit advantages in recent polling for the October 2026 first round. Surveys from Ideia, Genial/Quaest, and others place him at 41–53 percent against Fernando Haddad’s 26–37 percent, reflecting voter support for his administration and limited opposition momentum. Other candidates, including Erika Hilton, Kim Kataguiri, and Márcio França, register minimal support amid withdrawals and fragmented fields. Trader consensus aligns with these trends, though the outcome could shift if late campaign events, turnout changes in key regions, or unexpected developments alter first-round dynamics before the October runoff threshold.
The São Paulo gubernatorial election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026, with a runoff on October 25, 2026, if no candidate receives a majority of the valid votes in the first round.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins this election.
Temporary, interim, or placeholder governors appointed by any means before the specified election will not be considered.
If the result of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins this election.
Temporary, interim, or placeholder governors appointed by any means before the specified election will not be considered.
If the result of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).
マーケット開始日： Apr 27, 2026, 5:22 PM ET
音量
$279,178終了日
2026/10/04マーケット開始日
Apr 27, 2026, 5:22 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...The São Paulo gubernatorial election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026, with a runoff on October 25, 2026, if no candidate receives a majority of the valid votes in the first round.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins this election.
Temporary, interim, or placeholder governors appointed by any means before the specified election will not be considered.
If the result of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).Tarcísio de Freitas holds a commanding lead in the São Paulo governor race due to his status as incumbent and consistent double-digit advantages in recent polling for the October 2026 first round. Surveys from Ideia, Genial/Quaest, and others place him at 41–53 percent against Fernando Haddad’s 26–37 percent, reflecting voter support for his administration and limited opposition momentum. Other candidates, including Erika Hilton, Kim Kataguiri, and Márcio França, register minimal support amid withdrawals and fragmented fields. Trader consensus aligns with these trends, though the outcome could shift if late campaign events, turnout changes in key regions, or unexpected developments alter first-round dynamics before the October runoff threshold.
The São Paulo gubernatorial election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026, with a runoff on October 25, 2026, if no candidate receives a majority of the valid votes in the first round.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins this election.
Temporary, interim, or placeholder governors appointed by any means before the specified election will not be considered.
If the result of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins this election.
Temporary, interim, or placeholder governors appointed by any means before the specified election will not be considered.
If the result of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).
音量
$279,178終了日
2026/10/04マーケット開始日
Apr 27, 2026, 5:22 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Tarcísio de Freitas holds a commanding lead in the São Paulo governor race due to his status as incumbent and consistent double-digit advantages in recent polling for the October 2026 first round. Surveys from Ideia, Genial/Quaest, and others place him at 41–53 percent against Fernando Haddad’s 26–37 percent, reflecting voter support for his administration and limited opposition momentum. Other candidates, including Erika Hilton, Kim Kataguiri, and Márcio França, register minimal support amid withdrawals and fragmented fields. Trader consensus aligns with these trends, though the outcome could shift if late campaign events, turnout changes in key regions, or unexpected developments alter first-round dynamics before the October runoff threshold.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日
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