Tarcísio de Freitas maintains a commanding lead in the São Paulo gubernatorial race as the incumbent Republican seeking reelection on October 4, 2026. Recent surveys from Datafolha, Genial/Quaest, Ideia, and Vox Brasil place him between 41% and 53% in the first round, ahead of Fernando Haddad by 15–20 points, with other candidates including Erika Hilton, Kim Kataguiri, and Márcio França polling in low single digits. This positioning reflects his established voter base in Brazil’s most populous state, consolidation of center-right support, and Haddad’s structural challenges as the main opposition contender. Trader consensus at 93.5% aligns with these patterns. Late shifts could arise from runoff dynamics, debate performances, turnout variations, or unexpected coalition or economic developments before the first-round threshold.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日タルシジオ・ジ・フレイタス 94%
フェルナンド・ハダジ 4.4%
エリカ・ヒルトン <1%
キム・カタギリ <1%
$279,524 Vol.
$279,524 Vol.
2026/10/04
タルシジオ・ジ・フレイタス
94%
フェルナンド・ハダジ
4%
エリカ・ヒルトン
1%
キム・カタギリ
<1%
マルシオ・フランサ
<1%
タルシジオ・ジ・フレイタス 94%
フェルナンド・ハダジ 4.4%
エリカ・ヒルトン <1%
キム・カタギリ <1%
$279,524 Vol.
$279,524 Vol.
2026/10/04
タルシジオ・ジ・フレイタス
$123,143 Vol.
94%
フェルナンド・ハダジ
$47,232 Vol.
4%
エリカ・ヒルトン
$22,704 Vol.
1%
キム・カタギリ
$75,777 Vol.
<1%
マルシオ・フランサ
$10,668 Vol.
<1%
The São Paulo gubernatorial election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026, with a runoff on October 25, 2026, if no candidate receives a majority of the valid votes in the first round.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins this election.
Temporary, interim, or placeholder governors appointed by any means before the specified election will not be considered.
If the result of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).Tarcísio de Freitas maintains a commanding lead in the São Paulo gubernatorial race as the incumbent Republican seeking reelection on October 4, 2026. Recent surveys from Datafolha, Genial/Quaest, Ideia, and Vox Brasil place him between 41% and 53% in the first round, ahead of Fernando Haddad by 15–20 points, with other candidates including Erika Hilton, Kim Kataguiri, and Márcio França polling in low single digits. This positioning reflects his established voter base in Brazil’s most populous state, consolidation of center-right support, and Haddad’s structural challenges as the main opposition contender. Trader consensus at 93.5% aligns with these patterns. Late shifts could arise from runoff dynamics, debate performances, turnout variations, or unexpected coalition or economic developments before the first-round threshold.
The São Paulo gubernatorial election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026, with a runoff on October 25, 2026, if no candidate receives a majority of the valid votes in the first round.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins this election.
Temporary, interim, or placeholder governors appointed by any means before the specified election will not be considered.
If the result of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins this election.
Temporary, interim, or placeholder governors appointed by any means before the specified election will not be considered.
If the result of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).
マーケット開始日： Apr 27, 2026, 5:22 PM ET
音量
$279,524終了日
2026/10/04マーケット開始日
Apr 27, 2026, 5:22 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...The São Paulo gubernatorial election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026, with a runoff on October 25, 2026, if no candidate receives a majority of the valid votes in the first round.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins this election.
Temporary, interim, or placeholder governors appointed by any means before the specified election will not be considered.
If the result of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).Tarcísio de Freitas maintains a commanding lead in the São Paulo gubernatorial race as the incumbent Republican seeking reelection on October 4, 2026. Recent surveys from Datafolha, Genial/Quaest, Ideia, and Vox Brasil place him between 41% and 53% in the first round, ahead of Fernando Haddad by 15–20 points, with other candidates including Erika Hilton, Kim Kataguiri, and Márcio França polling in low single digits. This positioning reflects his established voter base in Brazil’s most populous state, consolidation of center-right support, and Haddad’s structural challenges as the main opposition contender. Trader consensus at 93.5% aligns with these patterns. Late shifts could arise from runoff dynamics, debate performances, turnout variations, or unexpected coalition or economic developments before the first-round threshold.
The São Paulo gubernatorial election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026, with a runoff on October 25, 2026, if no candidate receives a majority of the valid votes in the first round.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins this election.
Temporary, interim, or placeholder governors appointed by any means before the specified election will not be considered.
If the result of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins this election.
Temporary, interim, or placeholder governors appointed by any means before the specified election will not be considered.
If the result of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).
音量
$279,524終了日
2026/10/04マーケット開始日
Apr 27, 2026, 5:22 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Tarcísio de Freitas maintains a commanding lead in the São Paulo gubernatorial race as the incumbent Republican seeking reelection on October 4, 2026. Recent surveys from Datafolha, Genial/Quaest, Ideia, and Vox Brasil place him between 41% and 53% in the first round, ahead of Fernando Haddad by 15–20 points, with other candidates including Erika Hilton, Kim Kataguiri, and Márcio França polling in low single digits. This positioning reflects his established voter base in Brazil’s most populous state, consolidation of center-right support, and Haddad’s structural challenges as the main opposition contender. Trader consensus at 93.5% aligns with these patterns. Late shifts could arise from runoff dynamics, debate performances, turnout variations, or unexpected coalition or economic developments before the first-round threshold.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日
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