Recent polling aggregates from mid-September show incumbent President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva (PT) holding a narrow first-round lead over Senator Flávio Bolsonaro (PL) of roughly 2–5 points, with Lula typically at 38–44% and Flávio at 34–42% amid a fragmented field that includes Augusto Cury, Renan Santos, and Ronaldo Caiado in single digits. This positioning underpins trader emphasis on Lula da Silva margins under 5% or Flávio Bolsonaro margins under 5%, as right-wing support remains split and runoff simulations have tightened into statistical ties. Official campaigning opened in August, Jair Bolsonaro’s endorsement of his son has consolidated core support without broader consolidation, and persistent high rejection rates for both frontrunners have kept the contest competitive ahead of the October 4 vote.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日ルーラ・ダ・シルヴァ <5% 53%
フラヴィオ・ボルソナロ <5% 28.3%
ルラ・ダ・シルヴァ 5〜10％ 12%
フラヴィオ・ボルソナロ 5～10％ 7.8%
$522,115 Vol.
$522,115 Vol.
2026/10/03
ルラ・ダ・シルヴァ 15％以上
1%
ルラ・ダ・シルバ 10〜15％
3%
ルラ・ダ・シルヴァ 5〜10％
12%
ルーラ・ダ・シルヴァ <5%
53%
フラヴィオ・ボルソナロ10％以上
1%
フラヴィオ・ボルソナロ 5～10％
8%
フラヴィオ・ボルソナロ <5%
28%
レナン・サントスの勝利
<1%
タルシジオ・デ・フレイタスの勝利
<1%
ラチーニョ・ジュニオールの勝利
<1%
その他
<1%
ルーラ・ダ・シルヴァ <5% 53%
フラヴィオ・ボルソナロ <5% 28.3%
ルラ・ダ・シルヴァ 5〜10％ 12%
フラヴィオ・ボルソナロ 5～10％ 7.8%
$522,115 Vol.
$522,115 Vol.
2026/10/03
ルラ・ダ・シルヴァ 15％以上
$21,700 Vol.
1%
ルラ・ダ・シルバ 10〜15％
$49,476 Vol.
3%
ルラ・ダ・シルヴァ 5〜10％
$52,047 Vol.
12%
ルーラ・ダ・シルヴァ <5%
$53,064 Vol.
53%
フラヴィオ・ボルソナロ10％以上
$28,745 Vol.
1%
フラヴィオ・ボルソナロ 5～10％
$28,846 Vol.
8%
フラヴィオ・ボルソナロ <5%
$35,255 Vol.
28%
レナン・サントスの勝利
$220,225 Vol.
<1%
タルシジオ・デ・フレイタスの勝利
$10,653 Vol.
<1%
ラチーニョ・ジュニオールの勝利
$10,076 Vol.
<1%
その他
$12,026 Vol.
<1%
A presidential election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the first round of the next Brazil Presidential Election.
For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first- and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the vote count has been made official.
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).Recent polling aggregates from mid-September show incumbent President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva (PT) holding a narrow first-round lead over Senator Flávio Bolsonaro (PL) of roughly 2–5 points, with Lula typically at 38–44% and Flávio at 34–42% amid a fragmented field that includes Augusto Cury, Renan Santos, and Ronaldo Caiado in single digits. This positioning underpins trader emphasis on Lula da Silva margins under 5% or Flávio Bolsonaro margins under 5%, as right-wing support remains split and runoff simulations have tightened into statistical ties. Official campaigning opened in August, Jair Bolsonaro’s endorsement of his son has consolidated core support without broader consolidation, and persistent high rejection rates for both frontrunners have kept the contest competitive ahead of the October 4 vote.
A presidential election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the first round of the next Brazil Presidential Election.
For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first- and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the vote count has been made official.
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the first round of the next Brazil Presidential Election.
For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first- and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the vote count has been made official.
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).
マーケット開始日： Feb 11, 2026, 5:44 PM ET
音量
$522,115終了日
2026/10/04マーケット開始日
Feb 11, 2026, 5:44 PM ETリゾルバー
0x2F5e3684c...A presidential election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the first round of the next Brazil Presidential Election.
For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first- and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the vote count has been made official.
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).Recent polling aggregates from mid-September show incumbent President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva (PT) holding a narrow first-round lead over Senator Flávio Bolsonaro (PL) of roughly 2–5 points, with Lula typically at 38–44% and Flávio at 34–42% amid a fragmented field that includes Augusto Cury, Renan Santos, and Ronaldo Caiado in single digits. This positioning underpins trader emphasis on Lula da Silva margins under 5% or Flávio Bolsonaro margins under 5%, as right-wing support remains split and runoff simulations have tightened into statistical ties. Official campaigning opened in August, Jair Bolsonaro’s endorsement of his son has consolidated core support without broader consolidation, and persistent high rejection rates for both frontrunners have kept the contest competitive ahead of the October 4 vote.
A presidential election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the first round of the next Brazil Presidential Election.
For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first- and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the vote count has been made official.
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the first round of the next Brazil Presidential Election.
For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first- and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the vote count has been made official.
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).
音量
$522,115終了日
2026/10/04マーケット開始日
Feb 11, 2026, 5:44 PM ETリゾルバー
0x2F5e3684c...Recent polling aggregates from mid-September show incumbent President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva (PT) holding a narrow first-round lead over Senator Flávio Bolsonaro (PL) of roughly 2–5 points, with Lula typically at 38–44% and Flávio at 34–42% amid a fragmented field that includes Augusto Cury, Renan Santos, and Ronaldo Caiado in single digits. This positioning underpins trader emphasis on Lula da Silva margins under 5% or Flávio Bolsonaro margins under 5%, as right-wing support remains split and runoff simulations have tightened into statistical ties. Official campaigning opened in August, Jair Bolsonaro’s endorsement of his son has consolidated core support without broader consolidation, and persistent high rejection rates for both frontrunners have kept the contest competitive ahead of the October 4 vote.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日
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