Recent polling from state-affiliated firms like FOM and VTsIOM places A Just Russia (SR) between 4-7% in the party-list vote ahead of the September 18-20 State Duma elections, while independent surveys such as ExtremeScan show it hovering around 4-6% among decided voters. SR has maintained its parliamentary status through prior cycles and has shifted to emphasize veteran support and social policy under its pro-war positioning. Analysts note the party's ratings sit in a narrow band near the 5% threshold, with some forecasts describing its position as unstable. Kremlin-aligned commentary and procedural patterns indicate administrative preferences for preserving the existing five-party Duma composition, which traders appear to weigh alongside the close polling data when pricing the implied probability of SR clearing the barrier.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日はい
64% 確率
新規
新規
2026/09/20
はい
64% 確率
新規
新規
2026/09/20
Parliamentary elections are scheduled to be held in Russia on September 20, 2026.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the A Just Russia (SR) party list receives a percentage of valid votes greater than or equal to the threshold to gain seats in the State Duma from the proportional representation system in the 2026 Russian parliamentary elections. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
This market will resolve solely according to the percentage of valid votes received by the A Just Russia (SR) party list. Whether A Just Russia (SR) is awarded any seats in the State Duma will have no bearing on resolution.
The applicable threshold will be the threshold in effect at the time of the specified election. As of the creation of this market, that threshold is 5% of valid votes.
If the A Just Russia (SR) party list is not present on the nationwide ballot, or is otherwise excluded from the results of the specified election, this market will resolve to "No".
If the results of this election are not known definitively by September 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results reported by Russian government sources such as the Central Election Commission of the Russian Federation.Recent polling from state-affiliated firms like FOM and VTsIOM places A Just Russia (SR) between 4-7% in the party-list vote ahead of the September 18-20 State Duma elections, while independent surveys such as ExtremeScan show it hovering around 4-6% among decided voters. SR has maintained its parliamentary status through prior cycles and has shifted to emphasize veteran support and social policy under its pro-war positioning. Analysts note the party's ratings sit in a narrow band near the 5% threshold, with some forecasts describing its position as unstable. Kremlin-aligned commentary and procedural patterns indicate administrative preferences for preserving the existing five-party Duma composition, which traders appear to weigh alongside the close polling data when pricing the implied probability of SR clearing the barrier.
Parliamentary elections are scheduled to be held in Russia on September 20, 2026.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the A Just Russia (SR) party list receives a percentage of valid votes greater than or equal to the threshold to gain seats in the State Duma from the proportional representation system in the 2026 Russian parliamentary elections. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
This market will resolve solely according to the percentage of valid votes received by the A Just Russia (SR) party list. Whether A Just Russia (SR) is awarded any seats in the State Duma will have no bearing on resolution.
The applicable threshold will be the threshold in effect at the time of the specified election. As of the creation of this market, that threshold is 5% of valid votes.
If the A Just Russia (SR) party list is not present on the nationwide ballot, or is otherwise excluded from the results of the specified election, this market will resolve to "No".
If the results of this election are not known definitively by September 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results reported by Russian government sources such as the Central Election Commission of the Russian Federation.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the A Just Russia (SR) party list receives a percentage of valid votes greater than or equal to the threshold to gain seats in the State Duma from the proportional representation system in the 2026 Russian parliamentary elections. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
This market will resolve solely according to the percentage of valid votes received by the A Just Russia (SR) party list. Whether A Just Russia (SR) is awarded any seats in the State Duma will have no bearing on resolution.
The applicable threshold will be the threshold in effect at the time of the specified election. As of the creation of this market, that threshold is 5% of valid votes.
If the A Just Russia (SR) party list is not present on the nationwide ballot, or is otherwise excluded from the results of the specified election, this market will resolve to "No".
If the results of this election are not known definitively by September 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results reported by Russian government sources such as the Central Election Commission of the Russian Federation.
マーケット開始日： Sep 14, 2026, 5:12 PM ET
音量
$1,710終了日
2026/09/20マーケット開始日
Sep 14, 2026, 5:12 PM ETリゾルバー
0x65070BE91...Parliamentary elections are scheduled to be held in Russia on September 20, 2026.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the A Just Russia (SR) party list receives a percentage of valid votes greater than or equal to the threshold to gain seats in the State Duma from the proportional representation system in the 2026 Russian parliamentary elections. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
This market will resolve solely according to the percentage of valid votes received by the A Just Russia (SR) party list. Whether A Just Russia (SR) is awarded any seats in the State Duma will have no bearing on resolution.
The applicable threshold will be the threshold in effect at the time of the specified election. As of the creation of this market, that threshold is 5% of valid votes.
If the A Just Russia (SR) party list is not present on the nationwide ballot, or is otherwise excluded from the results of the specified election, this market will resolve to "No".
If the results of this election are not known definitively by September 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results reported by Russian government sources such as the Central Election Commission of the Russian Federation.Recent polling from state-affiliated firms like FOM and VTsIOM places A Just Russia (SR) between 4-7% in the party-list vote ahead of the September 18-20 State Duma elections, while independent surveys such as ExtremeScan show it hovering around 4-6% among decided voters. SR has maintained its parliamentary status through prior cycles and has shifted to emphasize veteran support and social policy under its pro-war positioning. Analysts note the party's ratings sit in a narrow band near the 5% threshold, with some forecasts describing its position as unstable. Kremlin-aligned commentary and procedural patterns indicate administrative preferences for preserving the existing five-party Duma composition, which traders appear to weigh alongside the close polling data when pricing the implied probability of SR clearing the barrier.
Parliamentary elections are scheduled to be held in Russia on September 20, 2026.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the A Just Russia (SR) party list receives a percentage of valid votes greater than or equal to the threshold to gain seats in the State Duma from the proportional representation system in the 2026 Russian parliamentary elections. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
This market will resolve solely according to the percentage of valid votes received by the A Just Russia (SR) party list. Whether A Just Russia (SR) is awarded any seats in the State Duma will have no bearing on resolution.
The applicable threshold will be the threshold in effect at the time of the specified election. As of the creation of this market, that threshold is 5% of valid votes.
If the A Just Russia (SR) party list is not present on the nationwide ballot, or is otherwise excluded from the results of the specified election, this market will resolve to "No".
If the results of this election are not known definitively by September 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results reported by Russian government sources such as the Central Election Commission of the Russian Federation.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the A Just Russia (SR) party list receives a percentage of valid votes greater than or equal to the threshold to gain seats in the State Duma from the proportional representation system in the 2026 Russian parliamentary elections. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
This market will resolve solely according to the percentage of valid votes received by the A Just Russia (SR) party list. Whether A Just Russia (SR) is awarded any seats in the State Duma will have no bearing on resolution.
The applicable threshold will be the threshold in effect at the time of the specified election. As of the creation of this market, that threshold is 5% of valid votes.
If the A Just Russia (SR) party list is not present on the nationwide ballot, or is otherwise excluded from the results of the specified election, this market will resolve to "No".
If the results of this election are not known definitively by September 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results reported by Russian government sources such as the Central Election Commission of the Russian Federation.
音量
$1,710終了日
2026/09/20マーケット開始日
Sep 14, 2026, 5:12 PM ETリゾルバー
0x65070BE91...Recent polling from state-affiliated firms like FOM and VTsIOM places A Just Russia (SR) between 4-7% in the party-list vote ahead of the September 18-20 State Duma elections, while independent surveys such as ExtremeScan show it hovering around 4-6% among decided voters. SR has maintained its parliamentary status through prior cycles and has shifted to emphasize veteran support and social policy under its pro-war positioning. Analysts note the party's ratings sit in a narrow band near the 5% threshold, with some forecasts describing its position as unstable. Kremlin-aligned commentary and procedural patterns indicate administrative preferences for preserving the existing five-party Duma composition, which traders appear to weigh alongside the close polling data when pricing the implied probability of SR clearing the barrier.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日
外部リンクに注意してください。
外部リンクに注意してください。
よくある質問