Recent polls show a fragmented contest for Berlin’s September 20 state election, with Die Linke, CDU, AfD, and the Greens clustered between roughly 16% and 23% and smaller parties near the 5% threshold. This tight distribution increases uncertainty over direct-mandate wins in the 78 constituencies relative to second-vote shares, directly affecting the number of overhang and leveling seats added to the statutory 130. Trader probabilities therefore spread across the 143–163+ bins rather than converging on any single range. Final campaign dynamics, including youth turnout after the lowered voting age, last-weekend constituency results, and any late shifts among smaller lists, could still widen or narrow the eventual chamber size.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日163以上 24%
143〜147 20%
143未満 18%
148〜152 18%
新規
新規
2026/09/20
143未満
18%
143〜147
20%
148〜152
18%
153〜157
18%
158～162
15%
163以上
24%
163以上 24%
143〜147 20%
143未満 18%
148〜152 18%
新規
新規
2026/09/20
143未満
$0 Vol.
18%
143〜147
$0 Vol.
20%
148〜152
$0 Vol.
18%
153〜157
$0 Vol.
18%
158～162
$0 Vol.
15%
163以上
$0 Vol.
24%
Elections to the Abgeordnetenhaus of Berlin (Berlin House of Representatives) are scheduled to be held on September 20, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the total number of seats in the Abgeordnetenhaus of Berlin as a result of this election, including any overhang seats (Überhangmandate) and compensatory seats (Ausgleichsmandate).
The Abgeordnetenhaus has a statutory minimum of 130 seats, of which 78 are elected in single-member constituencies and the remainder allocated from party lists. Where a party wins more constituency seats than its share of valid second votes entitles it to, it retains those seats as overhang seats and other parties in the Abgeordnetenhaus receive compensatory seats, increasing the total size of the chamber.
This market will resolve according to the total number of seats allocated in the official final results. Seats subsequently vacated, or changes arising from members leaving or changing party, will not be considered.
If the results of this election are not known definitively by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
This market will resolve based on the official results published by the Berlin State Returning Officer (Landeswahlleiterin für Berlin, https://www.wahlen-berlin.de/). However, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Recent polls show a fragmented contest for Berlin’s September 20 state election, with Die Linke, CDU, AfD, and the Greens clustered between roughly 16% and 23% and smaller parties near the 5% threshold. This tight distribution increases uncertainty over direct-mandate wins in the 78 constituencies relative to second-vote shares, directly affecting the number of overhang and leveling seats added to the statutory 130. Trader probabilities therefore spread across the 143–163+ bins rather than converging on any single range. Final campaign dynamics, including youth turnout after the lowered voting age, last-weekend constituency results, and any late shifts among smaller lists, could still widen or narrow the eventual chamber size.
Elections to the Abgeordnetenhaus of Berlin (Berlin House of Representatives) are scheduled to be held on September 20, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the total number of seats in the Abgeordnetenhaus of Berlin as a result of this election, including any overhang seats (Überhangmandate) and compensatory seats (Ausgleichsmandate).
The Abgeordnetenhaus has a statutory minimum of 130 seats, of which 78 are elected in single-member constituencies and the remainder allocated from party lists. Where a party wins more constituency seats than its share of valid second votes entitles it to, it retains those seats as overhang seats and other parties in the Abgeordnetenhaus receive compensatory seats, increasing the total size of the chamber.
This market will resolve according to the total number of seats allocated in the official final results. Seats subsequently vacated, or changes arising from members leaving or changing party, will not be considered.
If the results of this election are not known definitively by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
This market will resolve based on the official results published by the Berlin State Returning Officer (Landeswahlleiterin für Berlin, https://www.wahlen-berlin.de/). However, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market will resolve according to the total number of seats in the Abgeordnetenhaus of Berlin as a result of this election, including any overhang seats (Überhangmandate) and compensatory seats (Ausgleichsmandate).
The Abgeordnetenhaus has a statutory minimum of 130 seats, of which 78 are elected in single-member constituencies and the remainder allocated from party lists. Where a party wins more constituency seats than its share of valid second votes entitles it to, it retains those seats as overhang seats and other parties in the Abgeordnetenhaus receive compensatory seats, increasing the total size of the chamber.
This market will resolve according to the total number of seats allocated in the official final results. Seats subsequently vacated, or changes arising from members leaving or changing party, will not be considered.
If the results of this election are not known definitively by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
This market will resolve based on the official results published by the Berlin State Returning Officer (Landeswahlleiterin für Berlin, https://www.wahlen-berlin.de/). However, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
マーケット開始日： Sep 14, 2026, 6:48 PM ET
音量
$0終了日
2026/09/20マーケット開始日
Sep 14, 2026, 6:48 PM ETリゾルバー
0x69c47De9D...Elections to the Abgeordnetenhaus of Berlin (Berlin House of Representatives) are scheduled to be held on September 20, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the total number of seats in the Abgeordnetenhaus of Berlin as a result of this election, including any overhang seats (Überhangmandate) and compensatory seats (Ausgleichsmandate).
The Abgeordnetenhaus has a statutory minimum of 130 seats, of which 78 are elected in single-member constituencies and the remainder allocated from party lists. Where a party wins more constituency seats than its share of valid second votes entitles it to, it retains those seats as overhang seats and other parties in the Abgeordnetenhaus receive compensatory seats, increasing the total size of the chamber.
This market will resolve according to the total number of seats allocated in the official final results. Seats subsequently vacated, or changes arising from members leaving or changing party, will not be considered.
If the results of this election are not known definitively by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
This market will resolve based on the official results published by the Berlin State Returning Officer (Landeswahlleiterin für Berlin, https://www.wahlen-berlin.de/). However, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Recent polls show a fragmented contest for Berlin’s September 20 state election, with Die Linke, CDU, AfD, and the Greens clustered between roughly 16% and 23% and smaller parties near the 5% threshold. This tight distribution increases uncertainty over direct-mandate wins in the 78 constituencies relative to second-vote shares, directly affecting the number of overhang and leveling seats added to the statutory 130. Trader probabilities therefore spread across the 143–163+ bins rather than converging on any single range. Final campaign dynamics, including youth turnout after the lowered voting age, last-weekend constituency results, and any late shifts among smaller lists, could still widen or narrow the eventual chamber size.
Elections to the Abgeordnetenhaus of Berlin (Berlin House of Representatives) are scheduled to be held on September 20, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the total number of seats in the Abgeordnetenhaus of Berlin as a result of this election, including any overhang seats (Überhangmandate) and compensatory seats (Ausgleichsmandate).
The Abgeordnetenhaus has a statutory minimum of 130 seats, of which 78 are elected in single-member constituencies and the remainder allocated from party lists. Where a party wins more constituency seats than its share of valid second votes entitles it to, it retains those seats as overhang seats and other parties in the Abgeordnetenhaus receive compensatory seats, increasing the total size of the chamber.
This market will resolve according to the total number of seats allocated in the official final results. Seats subsequently vacated, or changes arising from members leaving or changing party, will not be considered.
If the results of this election are not known definitively by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
This market will resolve based on the official results published by the Berlin State Returning Officer (Landeswahlleiterin für Berlin, https://www.wahlen-berlin.de/). However, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market will resolve according to the total number of seats in the Abgeordnetenhaus of Berlin as a result of this election, including any overhang seats (Überhangmandate) and compensatory seats (Ausgleichsmandate).
The Abgeordnetenhaus has a statutory minimum of 130 seats, of which 78 are elected in single-member constituencies and the remainder allocated from party lists. Where a party wins more constituency seats than its share of valid second votes entitles it to, it retains those seats as overhang seats and other parties in the Abgeordnetenhaus receive compensatory seats, increasing the total size of the chamber.
This market will resolve according to the total number of seats allocated in the official final results. Seats subsequently vacated, or changes arising from members leaving or changing party, will not be considered.
If the results of this election are not known definitively by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
This market will resolve based on the official results published by the Berlin State Returning Officer (Landeswahlleiterin für Berlin, https://www.wahlen-berlin.de/). However, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
音量
$0終了日
2026/09/20マーケット開始日
Sep 14, 2026, 6:48 PM ETリゾルバー
0x69c47De9D...Recent polls show a fragmented contest for Berlin’s September 20 state election, with Die Linke, CDU, AfD, and the Greens clustered between roughly 16% and 23% and smaller parties near the 5% threshold. This tight distribution increases uncertainty over direct-mandate wins in the 78 constituencies relative to second-vote shares, directly affecting the number of overhang and leveling seats added to the statutory 130. Trader probabilities therefore spread across the 143–163+ bins rather than converging on any single range. Final campaign dynamics, including youth turnout after the lowered voting age, last-weekend constituency results, and any late shifts among smaller lists, could still widen or narrow the eventual chamber size.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日
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