Recent polling averages place Flávio Bolsonaro in the mid-to-high 30s in first-round scenarios ahead of the October 4 vote, with several surveys from mid-September showing him between 36% and 42%. Datafolha recorded 36% for the PL candidate against 39% for incumbent Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva, while AtlasIntel reported 41.7% for Bolsonaro. Momentum from Supreme Court proceedings involving Justice Alexandre de Moraes and right-wing mobilization has narrowed gaps in recent weeks. With the first-round field fragmented among lower-polling candidates and limited time remaining before voting, current surveys indicate low likelihood of a sharp decline below the 39% threshold. Trader consensus on elevated first-round support aligns with these stable late-campaign trends.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日39％以上 88%
36〜39％ 11.0%
33～36% 1.5%
30％未満 1.2%
$50,652 Vol.
$50,652 Vol.
2026/10/04
30％未満
1%
30〜33％
1%
33～36%
2%
36〜39％
11%
39％以上
88%
39％以上 88%
36〜39％ 11.0%
33～36% 1.5%
30％未満 1.2%
$50,652 Vol.
$50,652 Vol.
2026/10/04
30％未満
$4,849 Vol.
1%
30〜33％
$5,215 Vol.
1%
33～36%
$5,963 Vol.
2%
36〜39％
$11,088 Vol.
11%
39％以上
$23,537 Vol.
88%
A presidential election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the percentage of valid votes received by Flávio Bolsonaro in the first round of this election.
The percentage of valid votes received by the specified candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes the candidate receives in the first round by the sum of all valid votes cast in the first round.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the specified candidate does not appear on the ballot in the first round, or otherwise receives no valid votes, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
This market will resolve based on the official vote count.
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, including the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).Recent polling averages place Flávio Bolsonaro in the mid-to-high 30s in first-round scenarios ahead of the October 4 vote, with several surveys from mid-September showing him between 36% and 42%. Datafolha recorded 36% for the PL candidate against 39% for incumbent Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva, while AtlasIntel reported 41.7% for Bolsonaro. Momentum from Supreme Court proceedings involving Justice Alexandre de Moraes and right-wing mobilization has narrowed gaps in recent weeks. With the first-round field fragmented among lower-polling candidates and limited time remaining before voting, current surveys indicate low likelihood of a sharp decline below the 39% threshold. Trader consensus on elevated first-round support aligns with these stable late-campaign trends.
A presidential election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the percentage of valid votes received by Flávio Bolsonaro in the first round of this election.
The percentage of valid votes received by the specified candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes the candidate receives in the first round by the sum of all valid votes cast in the first round.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the specified candidate does not appear on the ballot in the first round, or otherwise receives no valid votes, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
This market will resolve based on the official vote count.
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, including the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).
This market will resolve according to the percentage of valid votes received by Flávio Bolsonaro in the first round of this election.
The percentage of valid votes received by the specified candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes the candidate receives in the first round by the sum of all valid votes cast in the first round.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the specified candidate does not appear on the ballot in the first round, or otherwise receives no valid votes, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
This market will resolve based on the official vote count.
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, including the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).
マーケット開始日： Sep 15, 2026, 10:26 PM ET
音量
$50,652終了日
2026/10/05マーケット開始日
Sep 15, 2026, 10:26 PM ETリゾルバー
0x69c47De9D...A presidential election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the percentage of valid votes received by Flávio Bolsonaro in the first round of this election.
The percentage of valid votes received by the specified candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes the candidate receives in the first round by the sum of all valid votes cast in the first round.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the specified candidate does not appear on the ballot in the first round, or otherwise receives no valid votes, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
This market will resolve based on the official vote count.
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, including the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).Recent polling averages place Flávio Bolsonaro in the mid-to-high 30s in first-round scenarios ahead of the October 4 vote, with several surveys from mid-September showing him between 36% and 42%. Datafolha recorded 36% for the PL candidate against 39% for incumbent Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva, while AtlasIntel reported 41.7% for Bolsonaro. Momentum from Supreme Court proceedings involving Justice Alexandre de Moraes and right-wing mobilization has narrowed gaps in recent weeks. With the first-round field fragmented among lower-polling candidates and limited time remaining before voting, current surveys indicate low likelihood of a sharp decline below the 39% threshold. Trader consensus on elevated first-round support aligns with these stable late-campaign trends.
A presidential election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the percentage of valid votes received by Flávio Bolsonaro in the first round of this election.
The percentage of valid votes received by the specified candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes the candidate receives in the first round by the sum of all valid votes cast in the first round.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the specified candidate does not appear on the ballot in the first round, or otherwise receives no valid votes, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
This market will resolve based on the official vote count.
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, including the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).
This market will resolve according to the percentage of valid votes received by Flávio Bolsonaro in the first round of this election.
The percentage of valid votes received by the specified candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes the candidate receives in the first round by the sum of all valid votes cast in the first round.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the specified candidate does not appear on the ballot in the first round, or otherwise receives no valid votes, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
This market will resolve based on the official vote count.
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, including the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).
音量
$50,652終了日
2026/10/05マーケット開始日
Sep 15, 2026, 10:26 PM ETリゾルバー
0x69c47De9D...Recent polling averages place Flávio Bolsonaro in the mid-to-high 30s in first-round scenarios ahead of the October 4 vote, with several surveys from mid-September showing him between 36% and 42%. Datafolha recorded 36% for the PL candidate against 39% for incumbent Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva, while AtlasIntel reported 41.7% for Bolsonaro. Momentum from Supreme Court proceedings involving Justice Alexandre de Moraes and right-wing mobilization has narrowed gaps in recent weeks. With the first-round field fragmented among lower-polling candidates and limited time remaining before voting, current surveys indicate low likelihood of a sharp decline below the 39% threshold. Trader consensus on elevated first-round support aligns with these stable late-campaign trends.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日
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