Incumbent President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva maintains a commanding lead in trader pricing for the first-round winner, reflecting his established support base, incumbency advantages, and the limited consolidation among opposition figures ahead of the October 2026 vote. Flavio Bolsonaro registers as the clearest alternative at far lower implied probability, consistent with the broader right-leaning electorate's search for a standard-bearer following Jair Bolsonaro's ongoing ineligibility. The remaining field, including lower-priced names such as Ronaldo Caiado and Zema, shows minimal consolidation, underscoring a fragmented opposition that has yet to narrow around a single challenger. This pricing pattern aligns with historical patterns in which sitting presidents often dominate early first-round expectations when viable alternatives remain dispersed.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日ルラ 86%
フラヴィオ・ボルソナロ 14%
作家アウグスト・クーリ <1%
レナン・サントス <1%
新規
$13,689 Vol.
新規
$13,689 Vol.
2026/10/04
ルラ
86%
フラヴィオ・ボルソナロ
14%
作家アウグスト・クーリ
1%
レナン・サントス
1%
ロナウド・カイアド
<1%
ルイ・コスタ・ピメンタ
<1%
クラリアナ・バラオ
<1%
ヘルツ・ディアス
<1%
サマラ
<1%
獣医ウィルソン・グラッシ
<1%
エジミルソン・コスタ
<1%
ゼマ
<1%
パブロ・マルサル
<1%
ルラ 86%
フラヴィオ・ボルソナロ 14%
作家アウグスト・クーリ <1%
レナン・サントス <1%
新規
$13,689 Vol.
新規
$13,689 Vol.
2026/10/04
ルラ
$6,010 Vol.
86%
フラヴィオ・ボルソナロ
$2,205 Vol.
14%
作家アウグスト・クーリ
$1,087 Vol.
1%
レナン・サントス
$777 Vol.
1%
ロナウド・カイアド
$766 Vol.
<1%
ルイ・コスタ・ピメンタ
$477 Vol.
<1%
クラリアナ・バラオ
$288 Vol.
<1%
ヘルツ・ディアス
$296 Vol.
<1%
サマラ
$296 Vol.
<1%
獣医ウィルソン・グラッシ
$316 Vol.
<1%
エジミルソン・コスタ
$259 Vol.
<1%
ゼマ
$546 Vol.
<1%
パブロ・マルサル
$366 Vol.
<1%
A presidential election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who receives the most valid votes in the first round of this election.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).Incumbent President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva maintains a commanding lead in trader pricing for the first-round winner, reflecting his established support base, incumbency advantages, and the limited consolidation among opposition figures ahead of the October 2026 vote. Flavio Bolsonaro registers as the clearest alternative at far lower implied probability, consistent with the broader right-leaning electorate's search for a standard-bearer following Jair Bolsonaro's ongoing ineligibility. The remaining field, including lower-priced names such as Ronaldo Caiado and Zema, shows minimal consolidation, underscoring a fragmented opposition that has yet to narrow around a single challenger. This pricing pattern aligns with historical patterns in which sitting presidents often dominate early first-round expectations when viable alternatives remain dispersed.
A presidential election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who receives the most valid votes in the first round of this election.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).
This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who receives the most valid votes in the first round of this election.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).
マーケット開始日： Aug 31, 2026, 1:47 PM ET
音量
$13,689終了日
2026/10/04マーケット開始日
Aug 31, 2026, 1:47 PM ETA presidential election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who receives the most valid votes in the first round of this election.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).Incumbent President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva maintains a commanding lead in trader pricing for the first-round winner, reflecting his established support base, incumbency advantages, and the limited consolidation among opposition figures ahead of the October 2026 vote. Flavio Bolsonaro registers as the clearest alternative at far lower implied probability, consistent with the broader right-leaning electorate's search for a standard-bearer following Jair Bolsonaro's ongoing ineligibility. The remaining field, including lower-priced names such as Ronaldo Caiado and Zema, shows minimal consolidation, underscoring a fragmented opposition that has yet to narrow around a single challenger. This pricing pattern aligns with historical patterns in which sitting presidents often dominate early first-round expectations when viable alternatives remain dispersed.
A presidential election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who receives the most valid votes in the first round of this election.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).
This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who receives the most valid votes in the first round of this election.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).
音量
$13,689終了日
2026/10/04マーケット開始日
Aug 31, 2026, 1:47 PM ETIncumbent President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva maintains a commanding lead in trader pricing for the first-round winner, reflecting his established support base, incumbency advantages, and the limited consolidation among opposition figures ahead of the October 2026 vote. Flavio Bolsonaro registers as the clearest alternative at far lower implied probability, consistent with the broader right-leaning electorate's search for a standard-bearer following Jair Bolsonaro's ongoing ineligibility. The remaining field, including lower-priced names such as Ronaldo Caiado and Zema, shows minimal consolidation, underscoring a fragmented opposition that has yet to narrow around a single challenger. This pricing pattern aligns with historical patterns in which sitting presidents often dominate early first-round expectations when viable alternatives remain dispersed.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日
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