Lula’s commanding position as the leading contender for first place in Pernambuco reflects his deep regional roots in the Northeast, where he was born and where Workers’ Party support has historically been strongest. National polling averages show the incumbent maintaining a comfortable first-round lead over right-wing challengers such as Flávio Bolsonaro, Ronaldo Caiado, Romeu Zema, and Renan Santos, with Pernambuco surveys indicating particularly robust backing for Lula compared with southern and southeastern states. Recent developments, including the formal launch of his re-election bid and sustained advantages in regional approval metrics, have reinforced trader assessments of low likelihood for any other listed candidate to top the state ballot on October 4. The wide spread in implied probabilities captures Pernambuco’s predictable voting patterns relative to the more contested national picture.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日フラヴィオ・ボルソナロ 2.4%
レナン・サントス 2.2%
クラリアナ・バラオ 2.2%
ゼマ 1.4%
新規
新規
2026/10/04
フラヴィオ・ボルソナロ
2%
レナン・サントス
2%
クラリアナ・バラオ
2%
ゼマ
1%
ヘルツ・ディアス
<1%
パブロ・マルサウ
<1%
ロナウド・カイアド
<1%
ルイ・コスタ・ピメンタ
<1%
サマラ
<1%
獣医師ウィルソン・グラッシ
<1%
エジミルソン・コスタ
<1%
作家アウグスト・クーリ
<1%
ルーラ
69%
フラヴィオ・ボルソナロ 2.4%
レナン・サントス 2.2%
クラリアナ・バラオ 2.2%
ゼマ 1.4%
新規
新規
2026/10/04
フラヴィオ・ボルソナロ
$184 Vol.
2%
レナン・サントス
$170 Vol.
2%
クラリアナ・バラオ
$170 Vol.
2%
ゼマ
$185 Vol.
1%
ヘルツ・ディアス
$237 Vol.
<1%
パブロ・マルサウ
$238 Vol.
<1%
ロナウド・カイアド
$238 Vol.
<1%
ルイ・コスタ・ピメンタ
$238 Vol.
<1%
サマラ
$238 Vol.
<1%
獣医師ウィルソン・グラッシ
$237 Vol.
<1%
エジミルソン・コスタ
$238 Vol.
<1%
作家アウグスト・クーリ
$239 Vol.
<1%
ルーラ
$474 Vol.
69%
A presidential election is scheduled to take place in Pernambuco, Brazil on October 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who receives the most valid votes in the first round of this election from Pernambuco.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won in Pernambuco. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).Lula’s commanding position as the leading contender for first place in Pernambuco reflects his deep regional roots in the Northeast, where he was born and where Workers’ Party support has historically been strongest. National polling averages show the incumbent maintaining a comfortable first-round lead over right-wing challengers such as Flávio Bolsonaro, Ronaldo Caiado, Romeu Zema, and Renan Santos, with Pernambuco surveys indicating particularly robust backing for Lula compared with southern and southeastern states. Recent developments, including the formal launch of his re-election bid and sustained advantages in regional approval metrics, have reinforced trader assessments of low likelihood for any other listed candidate to top the state ballot on October 4. The wide spread in implied probabilities captures Pernambuco’s predictable voting patterns relative to the more contested national picture.
A presidential election is scheduled to take place in Pernambuco, Brazil on October 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who receives the most valid votes in the first round of this election from Pernambuco.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won in Pernambuco. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).
This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who receives the most valid votes in the first round of this election from Pernambuco.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won in Pernambuco. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).
マーケット開始日： Aug 17, 2026, 6:33 AM ET
音量
$3,084終了日
2026/10/04マーケット開始日
Aug 17, 2026, 6:33 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...A presidential election is scheduled to take place in Pernambuco, Brazil on October 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who receives the most valid votes in the first round of this election from Pernambuco.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won in Pernambuco. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).Lula’s commanding position as the leading contender for first place in Pernambuco reflects his deep regional roots in the Northeast, where he was born and where Workers’ Party support has historically been strongest. National polling averages show the incumbent maintaining a comfortable first-round lead over right-wing challengers such as Flávio Bolsonaro, Ronaldo Caiado, Romeu Zema, and Renan Santos, with Pernambuco surveys indicating particularly robust backing for Lula compared with southern and southeastern states. Recent developments, including the formal launch of his re-election bid and sustained advantages in regional approval metrics, have reinforced trader assessments of low likelihood for any other listed candidate to top the state ballot on October 4. The wide spread in implied probabilities captures Pernambuco’s predictable voting patterns relative to the more contested national picture.
A presidential election is scheduled to take place in Pernambuco, Brazil on October 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who receives the most valid votes in the first round of this election from Pernambuco.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won in Pernambuco. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).
This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who receives the most valid votes in the first round of this election from Pernambuco.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won in Pernambuco. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).
音量
$3,084終了日
2026/10/04マーケット開始日
Aug 17, 2026, 6:33 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Lula’s commanding position as the leading contender for first place in Pernambuco reflects his deep regional roots in the Northeast, where he was born and where Workers’ Party support has historically been strongest. National polling averages show the incumbent maintaining a comfortable first-round lead over right-wing challengers such as Flávio Bolsonaro, Ronaldo Caiado, Romeu Zema, and Renan Santos, with Pernambuco surveys indicating particularly robust backing for Lula compared with southern and southeastern states. Recent developments, including the formal launch of his re-election bid and sustained advantages in regional approval metrics, have reinforced trader assessments of low likelihood for any other listed candidate to top the state ballot on October 4. The wide spread in implied probabilities captures Pernambuco’s predictable voting patterns relative to the more contested national picture.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日
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