Recent polls place AfD at 41-43% in Saxony-Anhalt ahead of the September 6 Landtag election, ahead of CDU at 22-24% and Die Linke at 13%, with smaller parties clustered near or below the 5% threshold. An absolute majority requires roughly 42 of 83 seats, which recent seat projections indicate AfD would reach only if SPD, Greens, FDP, and BSW all fall short of entry. Trader consensus favoring "No" at 64.5% reflects the likelihood that at least one or two minor parties clear the hurdle, combined with the firewall maintained by other parties against cooperation and the narrow margin shown in latest Infratest dimap, INSA, and pollytix surveys. No major late shifts have altered these dynamics in the final weeks.