The Greater Manchester mayoral by-election on 30 July 2026, triggered by Andy Burnham’s resignation after winning the Makerfield parliamentary seat, features a compressed timeline that keeps probabilities clustered among leading Labour figures and several opposition contenders. Trader pricing reflects uncertainty over Labour’s selection process, with Bev Craig positioned as the frontrunner alongside names such as Arooj Shah and others in the party’s local base, while Paul Dennett serves only as interim acting mayor. Recent developments, including the by-election date confirmation and candidate speculation, have prevented any single outcome from pulling ahead decisively. Factors such as voter turnout patterns, supplementary vote mechanics, and the performance of Reform UK, Conservative, Liberal Democrat, Green, and independent candidates could still shift implied probabilities before nominations close and ballots are cast.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日ベブ・クレイグ 73%
ジェラルディン・コギンズ 22%
ダン・バーカー 3.8%
ポール・デネット 1.8%
ベブ・クレイグ
73%
ジェラルディン・コギンズ
22%
ダン・バーカー
4%
ポール・デネット
2%
ケイト・グリーン
2%
ローラ・エバンス
1%
ジェイク・オースティン
1%
アラウジュ・シャー
1%
ニック・バックリー
<1%
ハンナ・スペンサー
<1%
ベブ・クレイグ 73%
ジェラルディン・コギンズ 22%
ダン・バーカー 3.8%
ポール・デネット 1.8%
ベブ・クレイグ
73%
ジェラルディン・コギンズ
22%
ダン・バーカー
4%
ポール・デネット
2%
ケイト・グリーン
2%
ローラ・エバンス
1%
ジェイク・オースティン
1%
アラウジュ・シャー
1%
ニック・バックリー
<1%
ハンナ・スペンサー
<1%
This market will resolve according to the candidate who becomes the next Mayor of Greater Manchester as a result of this election.
Temporary, interim, or placeholder mayors appointed before the election will not be considered.
If the result of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting; however, if there is any ambiguity in the results, this market will resolve according to official information from Greater Manchester Combined Authority (https://www.gmelects.org.uk/).
マーケット開始日： Jun 19, 2026, 11:58 AM ET
Resolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the candidate who becomes the next Mayor of Greater Manchester as a result of this election.
Temporary, interim, or placeholder mayors appointed before the election will not be considered.
If the result of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting; however, if there is any ambiguity in the results, this market will resolve according to official information from Greater Manchester Combined Authority (https://www.gmelects.org.uk/).
Resolver
0x69c47De9D...The Greater Manchester mayoral by-election on 30 July 2026, triggered by Andy Burnham’s resignation after winning the Makerfield parliamentary seat, features a compressed timeline that keeps probabilities clustered among leading Labour figures and several opposition contenders. Trader pricing reflects uncertainty over Labour’s selection process, with Bev Craig positioned as the frontrunner alongside names such as Arooj Shah and others in the party’s local base, while Paul Dennett serves only as interim acting mayor. Recent developments, including the by-election date confirmation and candidate speculation, have prevented any single outcome from pulling ahead decisively. Factors such as voter turnout patterns, supplementary vote mechanics, and the performance of Reform UK, Conservative, Liberal Democrat, Green, and independent candidates could still shift implied probabilities before nominations close and ballots are cast.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日
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