UK officials have repeatedly reaffirmed that sovereignty over the Falkland Islands remains non-negotiable without the consent of residents, citing the 2013 referendum where 99.8% voted to retain British Overseas Territory status. Recent tensions over offshore oil development, including the Sea Lion project, have prompted Argentine President Javier Milei to restate claims and pursue legal measures at the International Tribunal for the Law of the Sea, yet the UK has responded by rejecting negotiations and underscoring islanders' right to self-determination and resource development. This consistent diplomatic posture, absent any bilateral framework or external pressure for a handover, underpins trader consensus against a 2026 announcement. Late-year shifts could still arise from unforeseen diplomatic concessions, major changes in allied positions, or domestic political realignments in either country.