Recent polling gains for One Nation, reaching around 24% nationally, combined with by-election victories such as David Farley’s win in Farrer and Luke Herdegen’s success in Secret Harbour, have strengthened the party’s profile and created momentum for further parliamentary expansion. Speculation centers on sitting MPs like WA Upper House member Ben Dawkins, who has expressed interest in joining after leaving Labor, alongside earlier unconfirmed reports involving figures such as NSW Nationals MP Wes Fang. Barnaby Joyce’s December 2025 defection demonstrated that sitting members can switch, and traders appear to weigh the party’s rising regional and outer-suburban support against the limited time remaining in 2026 for additional moves before the next election cycle.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日はい
0% 確率
新規
新規
2026/12/31
はい
0% 確率
新規
新規
2026/12/31
This market will resolve to “Yes” if any sitting Member of Parliament (MP) in the Australian House of Representatives announces that he or she will join Pauline Hanson’s One Nation between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
An announcement that the individual will transition from independent status or another political party to One Nation will qualify only if the individual is a sitting MP in the Australian House of Representatives at the time of the announcement.
This market will resolve based on a qualifying announcement made within the specified timeframe. Once such an announcement is made, whether or when the individual subsequently joins One Nation will not affect the market’s resolution.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the relevant MP or their official representatives; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Recent polling gains for One Nation, reaching around 24% nationally, combined with by-election victories such as David Farley’s win in Farrer and Luke Herdegen’s success in Secret Harbour, have strengthened the party’s profile and created momentum for further parliamentary expansion. Speculation centers on sitting MPs like WA Upper House member Ben Dawkins, who has expressed interest in joining after leaving Labor, alongside earlier unconfirmed reports involving figures such as NSW Nationals MP Wes Fang. Barnaby Joyce’s December 2025 defection demonstrated that sitting members can switch, and traders appear to weigh the party’s rising regional and outer-suburban support against the limited time remaining in 2026 for additional moves before the next election cycle.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if any sitting Member of Parliament (MP) in the Australian House of Representatives announces that he or she will join Pauline Hanson’s One Nation between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
An announcement that the individual will transition from independent status or another political party to One Nation will qualify only if the individual is a sitting MP in the Australian House of Representatives at the time of the announcement.
This market will resolve based on a qualifying announcement made within the specified timeframe. Once such an announcement is made, whether or when the individual subsequently joins One Nation will not affect the market’s resolution.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the relevant MP or their official representatives; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
An announcement that the individual will transition from independent status or another political party to One Nation will qualify only if the individual is a sitting MP in the Australian House of Representatives at the time of the announcement.
This market will resolve based on a qualifying announcement made within the specified timeframe. Once such an announcement is made, whether or when the individual subsequently joins One Nation will not affect the market’s resolution.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the relevant MP or their official representatives; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
マーケット開始日： Jun 23, 2026, 9:38 PM ET
音量
$212終了日
2027/01/01マーケット開始日
Jun 23, 2026, 9:38 PM ETリゾルバー
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “Yes” if any sitting Member of Parliament (MP) in the Australian House of Representatives announces that he or she will join Pauline Hanson’s One Nation between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
An announcement that the individual will transition from independent status or another political party to One Nation will qualify only if the individual is a sitting MP in the Australian House of Representatives at the time of the announcement.
This market will resolve based on a qualifying announcement made within the specified timeframe. Once such an announcement is made, whether or when the individual subsequently joins One Nation will not affect the market’s resolution.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the relevant MP or their official representatives; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Recent polling gains for One Nation, reaching around 24% nationally, combined with by-election victories such as David Farley’s win in Farrer and Luke Herdegen’s success in Secret Harbour, have strengthened the party’s profile and created momentum for further parliamentary expansion. Speculation centers on sitting MPs like WA Upper House member Ben Dawkins, who has expressed interest in joining after leaving Labor, alongside earlier unconfirmed reports involving figures such as NSW Nationals MP Wes Fang. Barnaby Joyce’s December 2025 defection demonstrated that sitting members can switch, and traders appear to weigh the party’s rising regional and outer-suburban support against the limited time remaining in 2026 for additional moves before the next election cycle.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if any sitting Member of Parliament (MP) in the Australian House of Representatives announces that he or she will join Pauline Hanson’s One Nation between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
An announcement that the individual will transition from independent status or another political party to One Nation will qualify only if the individual is a sitting MP in the Australian House of Representatives at the time of the announcement.
This market will resolve based on a qualifying announcement made within the specified timeframe. Once such an announcement is made, whether or when the individual subsequently joins One Nation will not affect the market’s resolution.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the relevant MP or their official representatives; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
An announcement that the individual will transition from independent status or another political party to One Nation will qualify only if the individual is a sitting MP in the Australian House of Representatives at the time of the announcement.
This market will resolve based on a qualifying announcement made within the specified timeframe. Once such an announcement is made, whether or when the individual subsequently joins One Nation will not affect the market’s resolution.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the relevant MP or their official representatives; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
音量
$212終了日
2027/01/01マーケット開始日
Jun 23, 2026, 9:38 PM ETリゾルバー
0x65070BE91...Recent polling gains for One Nation, reaching around 24% nationally, combined with by-election victories such as David Farley’s win in Farrer and Luke Herdegen’s success in Secret Harbour, have strengthened the party’s profile and created momentum for further parliamentary expansion. Speculation centers on sitting MPs like WA Upper House member Ben Dawkins, who has expressed interest in joining after leaving Labor, alongside earlier unconfirmed reports involving figures such as NSW Nationals MP Wes Fang. Barnaby Joyce’s December 2025 defection demonstrated that sitting members can switch, and traders appear to weigh the party’s rising regional and outer-suburban support against the limited time remaining in 2026 for additional moves before the next election cycle.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日
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