Recent defections like Barnaby Joyce’s December 2025 move from the Nationals have established One Nation as a viable destination for disaffected Coalition parliamentarians amid the party’s polling surge to around 28 percent. Trader sentiment remains balanced at 50 percent because Pauline Hanson has repeatedly signaled selectivity, rejecting “opportunists” while welcoming only a narrow set of philosophically aligned figures, and the party continues prioritizing new candidates and community recruitment over further floor-crossing. Competitive equilibrium reflects both the momentum from conservative voter shifts and institutional caution within One Nation ranks. Additional sitting-MP switches before year-end could push the implied probability higher, whereas public rebuffs or internal emphasis on loyalty would likely reinforce hesitation.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日2026年には、もう一人のオーストラリアの国会議員がOne Nationに加わるのでしょうか？
2026年には、もう一人のオーストラリアの国会議員がOne Nationに加わるのでしょうか？
はい
新規
新規
2026/12/31
はい
新規
新規
2026/12/31
This market will resolve to “Yes” if any sitting Member of Parliament (MP) in the Australian House of Representatives announces that he or she will join Pauline Hanson’s One Nation between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
An announcement that the individual will transition from independent status or another political party to One Nation will qualify only if the individual is a sitting MP in the Australian House of Representatives at the time of the announcement.
This market will resolve based on a qualifying announcement made within the specified timeframe. Once such an announcement is made, whether or when the individual subsequently joins One Nation will not affect the market’s resolution.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the relevant MP or their official representatives; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Recent defections like Barnaby Joyce’s December 2025 move from the Nationals have established One Nation as a viable destination for disaffected Coalition parliamentarians amid the party’s polling surge to around 28 percent. Trader sentiment remains balanced at 50 percent because Pauline Hanson has repeatedly signaled selectivity, rejecting “opportunists” while welcoming only a narrow set of philosophically aligned figures, and the party continues prioritizing new candidates and community recruitment over further floor-crossing. Competitive equilibrium reflects both the momentum from conservative voter shifts and institutional caution within One Nation ranks. Additional sitting-MP switches before year-end could push the implied probability higher, whereas public rebuffs or internal emphasis on loyalty would likely reinforce hesitation.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if any sitting Member of Parliament (MP) in the Australian House of Representatives announces that he or she will join Pauline Hanson’s One Nation between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
An announcement that the individual will transition from independent status or another political party to One Nation will qualify only if the individual is a sitting MP in the Australian House of Representatives at the time of the announcement.
This market will resolve based on a qualifying announcement made within the specified timeframe. Once such an announcement is made, whether or when the individual subsequently joins One Nation will not affect the market’s resolution.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the relevant MP or their official representatives; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
An announcement that the individual will transition from independent status or another political party to One Nation will qualify only if the individual is a sitting MP in the Australian House of Representatives at the time of the announcement.
This market will resolve based on a qualifying announcement made within the specified timeframe. Once such an announcement is made, whether or when the individual subsequently joins One Nation will not affect the market’s resolution.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the relevant MP or their official representatives; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
マーケット開始日： Jun 23, 2026, 9:38 PM ET
音量
$0終了日
2026/12/31マーケット開始日
Jun 23, 2026, 9:38 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “Yes” if any sitting Member of Parliament (MP) in the Australian House of Representatives announces that he or she will join Pauline Hanson’s One Nation between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
An announcement that the individual will transition from independent status or another political party to One Nation will qualify only if the individual is a sitting MP in the Australian House of Representatives at the time of the announcement.
This market will resolve based on a qualifying announcement made within the specified timeframe. Once such an announcement is made, whether or when the individual subsequently joins One Nation will not affect the market’s resolution.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the relevant MP or their official representatives; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Recent defections like Barnaby Joyce’s December 2025 move from the Nationals have established One Nation as a viable destination for disaffected Coalition parliamentarians amid the party’s polling surge to around 28 percent. Trader sentiment remains balanced at 50 percent because Pauline Hanson has repeatedly signaled selectivity, rejecting “opportunists” while welcoming only a narrow set of philosophically aligned figures, and the party continues prioritizing new candidates and community recruitment over further floor-crossing. Competitive equilibrium reflects both the momentum from conservative voter shifts and institutional caution within One Nation ranks. Additional sitting-MP switches before year-end could push the implied probability higher, whereas public rebuffs or internal emphasis on loyalty would likely reinforce hesitation.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if any sitting Member of Parliament (MP) in the Australian House of Representatives announces that he or she will join Pauline Hanson’s One Nation between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
An announcement that the individual will transition from independent status or another political party to One Nation will qualify only if the individual is a sitting MP in the Australian House of Representatives at the time of the announcement.
This market will resolve based on a qualifying announcement made within the specified timeframe. Once such an announcement is made, whether or when the individual subsequently joins One Nation will not affect the market’s resolution.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the relevant MP or their official representatives; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
An announcement that the individual will transition from independent status or another political party to One Nation will qualify only if the individual is a sitting MP in the Australian House of Representatives at the time of the announcement.
This market will resolve based on a qualifying announcement made within the specified timeframe. Once such an announcement is made, whether or when the individual subsequently joins One Nation will not affect the market’s resolution.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the relevant MP or their official representatives; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
音量
$0終了日
2026/12/31マーケット開始日
Jun 23, 2026, 9:38 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Recent defections like Barnaby Joyce’s December 2025 move from the Nationals have established One Nation as a viable destination for disaffected Coalition parliamentarians amid the party’s polling surge to around 28 percent. Trader sentiment remains balanced at 50 percent because Pauline Hanson has repeatedly signaled selectivity, rejecting “opportunists” while welcoming only a narrow set of philosophically aligned figures, and the party continues prioritizing new candidates and community recruitment over further floor-crossing. Competitive equilibrium reflects both the momentum from conservative voter shifts and institutional caution within One Nation ranks. Additional sitting-MP switches before year-end could push the implied probability higher, whereas public rebuffs or internal emphasis on loyalty would likely reinforce hesitation.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日
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