Recent Victorian polling has established a three-way primary vote split among the Liberal-National Coalition, Labor, and One Nation ahead of the November 2026 election, with One Nation consistently registering in the low-to-mid 20s percent range. Multiple surveys, including Redbridge/Accent and Roy Morgan readings from June through early August, show the Coalition often leading or tied, Labor holding or slipping to second or third amid leadership transition pressures, and One Nation positioned just behind or level, well clear of the Greens and remaining minor parties. One Nation’s candidate announcements, including upper-house figures, and voter movement away from the majors have reinforced this placement. These patterns underpin trader consensus that One Nation will finish third on primary votes, while established parties are viewed as more likely to occupy the top two spots and smaller parties remain marginal.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日One Nation 80%
Labor 13%
Liberal–National 4.0%
Greens 4.0%
新規
新規
2026/11/28
One Nation
80%
Labor
13%
Liberal–National
4%
Greens
4%
Animal Justice
4%
Shooters, Fishers, Farmers
4%
Legalise Cannabis
4%
Libertarian
4%
One Nation 80%
Labor 13%
Liberal–National 4.0%
Greens 4.0%
新規
新規
2026/11/28
One Nation
$0 Vol.
80%
Labor
$4 Vol.
13%
Liberal–National
$0 Vol.
4%
Greens
$0 Vol.
4%
Animal Justice
$0 Vol.
4%
Shooters, Fishers, Farmers
$0 Vol.
4%
Legalise Cannabis
$0 Vol.
4%
Libertarian
$0 Vol.
4%
The 2026 Victorian state election is currently scheduled to be held on 28 November 2026 to elect members of the 61st Parliament of Victoria.
This market will resolve to "Yes" according to which party or coalition wins the third-most seats in the Legislative Assembly (Victoria's lower house) as a result of the next Victorian state election.
If the results of this election are not known definitively by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
Liberal–National refers to the Liberal–National Coalition. Liberal–National will include all seats won by both the Liberal Party and the Nationals, regardless of their parliamentary coalition behaviour, and its first-preference vote total will include the votes received by both parties.
Parties and coalitions will be primarily ranked by the number of seats won in the specified election. If two or more are tied on seats, ties will be broken by the total number of valid first-preference votes received, with higher vote totals ranking higher. If they remain tied, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the listed names. This market will resolve to the party or coalition that occupies the third-highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Victorian government, specifically the Victorian Electoral Commission (VEC) (https://www.vec.vic.gov.au/).Recent Victorian polling has established a three-way primary vote split among the Liberal-National Coalition, Labor, and One Nation ahead of the November 2026 election, with One Nation consistently registering in the low-to-mid 20s percent range. Multiple surveys, including Redbridge/Accent and Roy Morgan readings from June through early August, show the Coalition often leading or tied, Labor holding or slipping to second or third amid leadership transition pressures, and One Nation positioned just behind or level, well clear of the Greens and remaining minor parties. One Nation’s candidate announcements, including upper-house figures, and voter movement away from the majors have reinforced this placement. These patterns underpin trader consensus that One Nation will finish third on primary votes, while established parties are viewed as more likely to occupy the top two spots and smaller parties remain marginal.
The 2026 Victorian state election is currently scheduled to be held on 28 November 2026 to elect members of the 61st Parliament of Victoria.
This market will resolve to "Yes" according to which party or coalition wins the third-most seats in the Legislative Assembly (Victoria's lower house) as a result of the next Victorian state election.
If the results of this election are not known definitively by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
Liberal–National refers to the Liberal–National Coalition. Liberal–National will include all seats won by both the Liberal Party and the Nationals, regardless of their parliamentary coalition behaviour, and its first-preference vote total will include the votes received by both parties.
Parties and coalitions will be primarily ranked by the number of seats won in the specified election. If two or more are tied on seats, ties will be broken by the total number of valid first-preference votes received, with higher vote totals ranking higher. If they remain tied, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the listed names. This market will resolve to the party or coalition that occupies the third-highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Victorian government, specifically the Victorian Electoral Commission (VEC) (https://www.vec.vic.gov.au/).
This market will resolve to "Yes" according to which party or coalition wins the third-most seats in the Legislative Assembly (Victoria's lower house) as a result of the next Victorian state election.
If the results of this election are not known definitively by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
Liberal–National refers to the Liberal–National Coalition. Liberal–National will include all seats won by both the Liberal Party and the Nationals, regardless of their parliamentary coalition behaviour, and its first-preference vote total will include the votes received by both parties.
Parties and coalitions will be primarily ranked by the number of seats won in the specified election. If two or more are tied on seats, ties will be broken by the total number of valid first-preference votes received, with higher vote totals ranking higher. If they remain tied, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the listed names. This market will resolve to the party or coalition that occupies the third-highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Victorian government, specifically the Victorian Electoral Commission (VEC) (https://www.vec.vic.gov.au/).
マーケット開始日： Aug 20, 2026, 5:36 AM ET
音量
$4終了日
2026/11/28マーケット開始日
Aug 20, 2026, 5:36 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...The 2026 Victorian state election is currently scheduled to be held on 28 November 2026 to elect members of the 61st Parliament of Victoria.
This market will resolve to "Yes" according to which party or coalition wins the third-most seats in the Legislative Assembly (Victoria's lower house) as a result of the next Victorian state election.
If the results of this election are not known definitively by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
Liberal–National refers to the Liberal–National Coalition. Liberal–National will include all seats won by both the Liberal Party and the Nationals, regardless of their parliamentary coalition behaviour, and its first-preference vote total will include the votes received by both parties.
Parties and coalitions will be primarily ranked by the number of seats won in the specified election. If two or more are tied on seats, ties will be broken by the total number of valid first-preference votes received, with higher vote totals ranking higher. If they remain tied, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the listed names. This market will resolve to the party or coalition that occupies the third-highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Victorian government, specifically the Victorian Electoral Commission (VEC) (https://www.vec.vic.gov.au/).Recent Victorian polling has established a three-way primary vote split among the Liberal-National Coalition, Labor, and One Nation ahead of the November 2026 election, with One Nation consistently registering in the low-to-mid 20s percent range. Multiple surveys, including Redbridge/Accent and Roy Morgan readings from June through early August, show the Coalition often leading or tied, Labor holding or slipping to second or third amid leadership transition pressures, and One Nation positioned just behind or level, well clear of the Greens and remaining minor parties. One Nation’s candidate announcements, including upper-house figures, and voter movement away from the majors have reinforced this placement. These patterns underpin trader consensus that One Nation will finish third on primary votes, while established parties are viewed as more likely to occupy the top two spots and smaller parties remain marginal.
The 2026 Victorian state election is currently scheduled to be held on 28 November 2026 to elect members of the 61st Parliament of Victoria.
This market will resolve to "Yes" according to which party or coalition wins the third-most seats in the Legislative Assembly (Victoria's lower house) as a result of the next Victorian state election.
If the results of this election are not known definitively by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
Liberal–National refers to the Liberal–National Coalition. Liberal–National will include all seats won by both the Liberal Party and the Nationals, regardless of their parliamentary coalition behaviour, and its first-preference vote total will include the votes received by both parties.
Parties and coalitions will be primarily ranked by the number of seats won in the specified election. If two or more are tied on seats, ties will be broken by the total number of valid first-preference votes received, with higher vote totals ranking higher. If they remain tied, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the listed names. This market will resolve to the party or coalition that occupies the third-highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Victorian government, specifically the Victorian Electoral Commission (VEC) (https://www.vec.vic.gov.au/).
This market will resolve to "Yes" according to which party or coalition wins the third-most seats in the Legislative Assembly (Victoria's lower house) as a result of the next Victorian state election.
If the results of this election are not known definitively by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
Liberal–National refers to the Liberal–National Coalition. Liberal–National will include all seats won by both the Liberal Party and the Nationals, regardless of their parliamentary coalition behaviour, and its first-preference vote total will include the votes received by both parties.
Parties and coalitions will be primarily ranked by the number of seats won in the specified election. If two or more are tied on seats, ties will be broken by the total number of valid first-preference votes received, with higher vote totals ranking higher. If they remain tied, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the listed names. This market will resolve to the party or coalition that occupies the third-highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Victorian government, specifically the Victorian Electoral Commission (VEC) (https://www.vec.vic.gov.au/).
音量
$4終了日
2026/11/28マーケット開始日
Aug 20, 2026, 5:36 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent Victorian polling has established a three-way primary vote split among the Liberal-National Coalition, Labor, and One Nation ahead of the November 2026 election, with One Nation consistently registering in the low-to-mid 20s percent range. Multiple surveys, including Redbridge/Accent and Roy Morgan readings from June through early August, show the Coalition often leading or tied, Labor holding or slipping to second or third amid leadership transition pressures, and One Nation positioned just behind or level, well clear of the Greens and remaining minor parties. One Nation’s candidate announcements, including upper-house figures, and voter movement away from the majors have reinforced this placement. These patterns underpin trader consensus that One Nation will finish third on primary votes, while established parties are viewed as more likely to occupy the top two spots and smaller parties remain marginal.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日関連
Will Labor win the second-most seats in the next Victorian state election?
70%
Will Liberal–National win the most seats in the next Victorian state election?
66%
Will New Zealand First Party win the third-most seats in the New Zealand House of Representatives in the 2026 New Zealand legislative election?
53%
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