Lula holds a commanding position in Sergipe for the October 2026 first round, reflecting the state's longstanding support for Workers' Party candidates in Brazil's Northeast. Incumbency advantages, expanded social programs, and regional economic priorities have reinforced voter alignment ahead of the vote. Recent national polling shows Lula at roughly 40% in simulated first-round scenarios, with opposition figures like Flávio Bolsonaro trailing, though Sergipe's demographics amplify this edge beyond national averages. Trader consensus at 94% for Lula accounts for limited local opposition momentum and the absence of major recent disruptions to his base. A late surge by right-leaning challengers or shifts in turnout among key voting blocs could narrow the margin, but current conditions point to sustained dominance in the state.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日ルラ 55%
クラリアナ・バラオ 26%
エジミルソン・コスタ 26%
作家アウグスト・クリー 26%
新規
新規
2026/10/04
ルラ
55%
クラリアナ・バラオ
26%
エジミルソン・コスタ
26%
作家アウグスト・クリー
26%
フラヴィオ・ボルソナロ
26%
ヘルツ・ディアス
26%
レナン・サントス
26%
ロナウド・カイアード
26%
ルイ・コスタ・ピメンタ
26%
サマラ
26%
ゼマ
26%
獣医師ウィルソン・グラッシ
26%
パブロ・マルサウ
17%
ルラ 55%
クラリアナ・バラオ 26%
エジミルソン・コスタ 26%
作家アウグスト・クリー 26%
新規
新規
2026/10/04
ルラ
$40 Vol.
55%
クラリアナ・バラオ
$8 Vol.
26%
エジミルソン・コスタ
$8 Vol.
26%
作家アウグスト・クリー
$8 Vol.
26%
フラヴィオ・ボルソナロ
$8 Vol.
26%
ヘルツ・ディアス
$8 Vol.
26%
レナン・サントス
$8 Vol.
26%
ロナウド・カイアード
$8 Vol.
26%
ルイ・コスタ・ピメンタ
$8 Vol.
26%
サマラ
$8 Vol.
26%
ゼマ
$8 Vol.
26%
獣医師ウィルソン・グラッシ
$8 Vol.
26%
パブロ・マルサウ
$8 Vol.
17%
A presidential election is scheduled to take place in Sergipe, Brazil on October 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who receives the most valid votes in the first round of this election from Sergipe.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won in Sergipe. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).Lula holds a commanding position in Sergipe for the October 2026 first round, reflecting the state's longstanding support for Workers' Party candidates in Brazil's Northeast. Incumbency advantages, expanded social programs, and regional economic priorities have reinforced voter alignment ahead of the vote. Recent national polling shows Lula at roughly 40% in simulated first-round scenarios, with opposition figures like Flávio Bolsonaro trailing, though Sergipe's demographics amplify this edge beyond national averages. Trader consensus at 94% for Lula accounts for limited local opposition momentum and the absence of major recent disruptions to his base. A late surge by right-leaning challengers or shifts in turnout among key voting blocs could narrow the margin, but current conditions point to sustained dominance in the state.
A presidential election is scheduled to take place in Sergipe, Brazil on October 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who receives the most valid votes in the first round of this election from Sergipe.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won in Sergipe. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).
This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who receives the most valid votes in the first round of this election from Sergipe.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won in Sergipe. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).
マーケット開始日： Aug 17, 2026, 6:36 AM ET
音量
$136終了日
2026/10/04マーケット開始日
Aug 17, 2026, 6:36 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...A presidential election is scheduled to take place in Sergipe, Brazil on October 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who receives the most valid votes in the first round of this election from Sergipe.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won in Sergipe. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).Lula holds a commanding position in Sergipe for the October 2026 first round, reflecting the state's longstanding support for Workers' Party candidates in Brazil's Northeast. Incumbency advantages, expanded social programs, and regional economic priorities have reinforced voter alignment ahead of the vote. Recent national polling shows Lula at roughly 40% in simulated first-round scenarios, with opposition figures like Flávio Bolsonaro trailing, though Sergipe's demographics amplify this edge beyond national averages. Trader consensus at 94% for Lula accounts for limited local opposition momentum and the absence of major recent disruptions to his base. A late surge by right-leaning challengers or shifts in turnout among key voting blocs could narrow the margin, but current conditions point to sustained dominance in the state.
A presidential election is scheduled to take place in Sergipe, Brazil on October 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who receives the most valid votes in the first round of this election from Sergipe.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won in Sergipe. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).
This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who receives the most valid votes in the first round of this election from Sergipe.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won in Sergipe. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).
音量
$136終了日
2026/10/04マーケット開始日
Aug 17, 2026, 6:36 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Lula holds a commanding position in Sergipe for the October 2026 first round, reflecting the state's longstanding support for Workers' Party candidates in Brazil's Northeast. Incumbency advantages, expanded social programs, and regional economic priorities have reinforced voter alignment ahead of the vote. Recent national polling shows Lula at roughly 40% in simulated first-round scenarios, with opposition figures like Flávio Bolsonaro trailing, though Sergipe's demographics amplify this edge beyond national averages. Trader consensus at 94% for Lula accounts for limited local opposition momentum and the absence of major recent disruptions to his base. A late surge by right-leaning challengers or shifts in turnout among key voting blocs could narrow the margin, but current conditions point to sustained dominance in the state.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日
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