Recent polls show Flávio Bolsonaro and incumbent Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva in a technical tie for the October 4 first round, with Flávio at 41% and Lula at 40% in the latest Vox survey and similar narrow gaps in Atlas and Datafolha data. Polarization, high rejection rates for both candidates, and lingering effects from corruption probes tied to a major banking scandal have kept the contest tight, as swing voters weigh security priorities and welfare expansions against institutional tensions. Late endorsements from figures like Pablo Marçal and intra-party shifts have provided marginal boosts without decisive separation. Traders price the highest probabilities in the 39-45% band because historical first-round fragmentation and undecided shares near 7-10% leave room for modest swings from turnout or last-minute events before voting.
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