**The Federal District Senate race for second place remains tightly contested among a crowded field of two dozen candidates, with no single contender establishing a clear edge in the weeks before the October 4, 2026, vote.** Multiple pre-candidates, including Michelle Bolsonaro, Leila Barros, Erika Kokay, and several others polling in the low-to-mid 40s, draw comparable support in a plurality block voting system that elects two senators. Fragmented voter preferences across center-right, center-left, and independent blocs, combined with shifting party alliances and limited recent polling differentiation, sustain the even implied probabilities. National attention on figures like Bolsonaro has not yet translated into decisive separation for the second slot, while local dynamics around incumbency, turnout in Brasília, and coalition negotiations continue to keep outcomes fluid. Any late endorsements, debate performances, or shifts in presidential coattails could quickly reorder the middle of the pack.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日エリカ・コカイ 44%
グト・フェリシオ・ドス・サントス 44%
ギリェルメ・アモリム教授 44%
チアゴ 44%
新規
新規
2026/10/04
エリカ・コカイ
44%
グト・フェリシオ・ドス・サントス
44%
ギリェルメ・アモリム教授
44%
チアゴ
44%
レイラ・ド・ヴォレイ
44%
ミシェル・ボルソナロ
44%
ロナウド・フォンセカ
44%
セバスチャン・コエーリョ
44%
ザナタ
44%
マーリー
43%
アヴェニール・ロサ
40%
デイビッド・ホーン
40%
ビア・キシス
40%
エリカ・コカイ 44%
グト・フェリシオ・ドス・サントス 44%
ギリェルメ・アモリム教授 44%
チアゴ 44%
新規
新規
2026/10/04
エリカ・コカイ
$0 Vol.
44%
グト・フェリシオ・ドス・サントス
$0 Vol.
44%
ギリェルメ・アモリム教授
$0 Vol.
44%
チアゴ
$0 Vol.
44%
レイラ・ド・ヴォレイ
$0 Vol.
44%
ミシェル・ボルソナロ
$0 Vol.
44%
ロナウド・フォンセカ
$0 Vol.
44%
セバスチャン・コエーリョ
$0 Vol.
44%
ザナタ
$0 Vol.
44%
マーリー
$0 Vol.
43%
アヴェニール・ロサ
$0 Vol.
40%
デイビッド・ホーン
$0 Vol.
40%
ビア・キシス
$0 Vol.
40%
The Brazilian Federal Senate election for Federal District is scheduled to take place on October 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the second-most valid votes of any candidate at the specified election.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the second-highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).**The Federal District Senate race for second place remains tightly contested among a crowded field of two dozen candidates, with no single contender establishing a clear edge in the weeks before the October 4, 2026, vote.** Multiple pre-candidates, including Michelle Bolsonaro, Leila Barros, Erika Kokay, and several others polling in the low-to-mid 40s, draw comparable support in a plurality block voting system that elects two senators. Fragmented voter preferences across center-right, center-left, and independent blocs, combined with shifting party alliances and limited recent polling differentiation, sustain the even implied probabilities. National attention on figures like Bolsonaro has not yet translated into decisive separation for the second slot, while local dynamics around incumbency, turnout in Brasília, and coalition negotiations continue to keep outcomes fluid. Any late endorsements, debate performances, or shifts in presidential coattails could quickly reorder the middle of the pack.
The Brazilian Federal Senate election for Federal District is scheduled to take place on October 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the second-most valid votes of any candidate at the specified election.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the second-highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the second-most valid votes of any candidate at the specified election.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the second-highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).
マーケット開始日： Aug 17, 2026, 5:57 AM ET
音量
$0終了日
2026/10/04マーケット開始日
Aug 17, 2026, 5:57 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...The Brazilian Federal Senate election for Federal District is scheduled to take place on October 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the second-most valid votes of any candidate at the specified election.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the second-highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).**The Federal District Senate race for second place remains tightly contested among a crowded field of two dozen candidates, with no single contender establishing a clear edge in the weeks before the October 4, 2026, vote.** Multiple pre-candidates, including Michelle Bolsonaro, Leila Barros, Erika Kokay, and several others polling in the low-to-mid 40s, draw comparable support in a plurality block voting system that elects two senators. Fragmented voter preferences across center-right, center-left, and independent blocs, combined with shifting party alliances and limited recent polling differentiation, sustain the even implied probabilities. National attention on figures like Bolsonaro has not yet translated into decisive separation for the second slot, while local dynamics around incumbency, turnout in Brasília, and coalition negotiations continue to keep outcomes fluid. Any late endorsements, debate performances, or shifts in presidential coattails could quickly reorder the middle of the pack.
The Brazilian Federal Senate election for Federal District is scheduled to take place on October 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the second-most valid votes of any candidate at the specified election.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the second-highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the second-most valid votes of any candidate at the specified election.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the second-highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).
音量
$0終了日
2026/10/04マーケット開始日
Aug 17, 2026, 5:57 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...**The Federal District Senate race for second place remains tightly contested among a crowded field of two dozen candidates, with no single contender establishing a clear edge in the weeks before the October 4, 2026, vote.** Multiple pre-candidates, including Michelle Bolsonaro, Leila Barros, Erika Kokay, and several others polling in the low-to-mid 40s, draw comparable support in a plurality block voting system that elects two senators. Fragmented voter preferences across center-right, center-left, and independent blocs, combined with shifting party alliances and limited recent polling differentiation, sustain the even implied probabilities. National attention on figures like Bolsonaro has not yet translated into decisive separation for the second slot, while local dynamics around incumbency, turnout in Brasília, and coalition negotiations continue to keep outcomes fluid. Any late endorsements, debate performances, or shifts in presidential coattails could quickly reorder the middle of the pack.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日
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