Recent state election setbacks for the CDU, including the AfD’s strong showing in Saxony-Anhalt, have intensified speculation about Chancellor Friedrich Merz’s position within the grand coalition, with names such as Hendrik Wüst and Markus Söder frequently discussed as potential successors. State premiers from the CDU have publicly rallied behind Merz to prioritize stability over personnel changes ahead of further regional votes, while national polling shows the AfD leading and Merz’s personal ratings remain low. The next regular Bundestag election is scheduled for 2029, though coalition strains or a lost confidence vote could trigger an earlier contest before 2028. Traders price the “no change” outcome above 50 percent, reflecting limited consensus on an immediate internal replacement despite ongoing pressure, with Wüst and Söder holding the clearest but still modest implied probabilities among named contenders.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日2028年より前に次の首相なし 55%
ヘンドリック・ヴュスト 17%
マルクス・ゼーダー 13%
ボリス・ピストリウス 11%
2028年より前に次の首相なし
55%
ヘンドリック・ヴュスト
17%
マルクス・ゼーダー
13%
ボリス・ピストリウス
11%
フェリックス・バナシャク
5%
アリス・ワイデル
2%
カタリーナ・ドレーゲ
1%
ティノ・クルパラ
1%
ザラ・ワーゲンクネヒト
1%
ラース・クリングバイル
1%
イェンス・シュパーン
1%
ハイディ・ライヒネック
1%
カーステン・リネマン
1%
2028年より前に次の首相なし 55%
ヘンドリック・ヴュスト 17%
マルクス・ゼーダー 13%
ボリス・ピストリウス 11%
2028年より前に次の首相なし
55%
ヘンドリック・ヴュスト
17%
マルクス・ゼーダー
13%
ボリス・ピストリウス
11%
フェリックス・バナシャク
5%
アリス・ワイデル
2%
カタリーナ・ドレーゲ
1%
ティノ・クルパラ
1%
ザラ・ワーゲンクネヒト
1%
ラース・クリングバイル
1%
イェンス・シュパーン
1%
ハイディ・ライヒネック
1%
カーステン・リネマン
1%
This market will resolve to the next individual, other than Friedrich Merz, who assumes the office of Chancellor of Germany.
To count for resolution, the individual must be elected Chancellor by the Bundestag and appointed by the Federal President. Any acting or caretaker Chancellor will not count toward the resolution of this market.
If no such Chancellor takes office, or if Friedrich Merz is the next individual elected Chancellor, by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “No Next Chancellor before 2028”.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Bundestag and the Federal Government of Germany; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
マーケット開始日： Sep 15, 2026, 5:28 PM ET
リゾルバー
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the next individual, other than Friedrich Merz, who assumes the office of Chancellor of Germany.
To count for resolution, the individual must be elected Chancellor by the Bundestag and appointed by the Federal President. Any acting or caretaker Chancellor will not count toward the resolution of this market.
If no such Chancellor takes office, or if Friedrich Merz is the next individual elected Chancellor, by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “No Next Chancellor before 2028”.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Bundestag and the Federal Government of Germany; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
リゾルバー
0x69c47De9D...Recent state election setbacks for the CDU, including the AfD’s strong showing in Saxony-Anhalt, have intensified speculation about Chancellor Friedrich Merz’s position within the grand coalition, with names such as Hendrik Wüst and Markus Söder frequently discussed as potential successors. State premiers from the CDU have publicly rallied behind Merz to prioritize stability over personnel changes ahead of further regional votes, while national polling shows the AfD leading and Merz’s personal ratings remain low. The next regular Bundestag election is scheduled for 2029, though coalition strains or a lost confidence vote could trigger an earlier contest before 2028. Traders price the “no change” outcome above 50 percent, reflecting limited consensus on an immediate internal replacement despite ongoing pressure, with Wüst and Söder holding the clearest but still modest implied probabilities among named contenders.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日
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