The recent selection of Green Party leader Zack Polanski as candidate, combined with strong local council gains in Camden and endorsement from former independent challenger Andrew Feinstein, has lifted expectations for the party's performance in the October 8 by-election beyond its 10.4% share in 2024. Traders' tight distribution across vote-share brackets reflects uncertainty over how far this momentum will carry in a constituency long held by Labour, where issues such as housing costs, rent controls and climate policy resonate but traditional party loyalty and a short campaign period remain significant constraints. Upcoming doorstep activity and any late shifts in turnout among progressive voters could narrow or widen the most probable outcome ranges before polling day.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日20％未満 26%
20〜25％ 21%
25〜30％ 18%
30〜35％ 17%
新規
新規
2026/10/08
20％未満
26%
20〜25％
21%
25〜30％
18%
30〜35％
17%
35〜40％
15%
40％以上
12%
20％未満 26%
20〜25％ 21%
25〜30％ 18%
30〜35％ 17%
新規
新規
2026/10/08
20％未満
$28 Vol.
26%
20〜25％
$39 Vol.
21%
25〜30％
$39 Vol.
18%
30〜35％
$58 Vol.
17%
35〜40％
$19 Vol.
15%
40％以上
$39 Vol.
12%
A by-election for the United Kingdom parliamentary constituency of Holborn and St Pancras is scheduled to be held on October 8, 2026, following the resignation of incumbent Sir Keir Starmer.
This market will resolve according to the percentage of valid votes received by the Green Party candidate in the Holborn and St Pancras by-election.
The percentage will be measured as the number of valid votes received by the Green Party candidate divided by the total number of valid votes cast in the by-election.
Valid vote percentages will be counted only where the official results attribute them to the candidate standing for the Green Party. Votes attributed to other candidates or party designations will not count, regardless of endorsements or electoral cooperation.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the results of this by-election are not definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
This market will resolve based on the results of this by-election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as published by Camden Council (https://www.camden.gov.uk/).The recent selection of Green Party leader Zack Polanski as candidate, combined with strong local council gains in Camden and endorsement from former independent challenger Andrew Feinstein, has lifted expectations for the party's performance in the October 8 by-election beyond its 10.4% share in 2024. Traders' tight distribution across vote-share brackets reflects uncertainty over how far this momentum will carry in a constituency long held by Labour, where issues such as housing costs, rent controls and climate policy resonate but traditional party loyalty and a short campaign period remain significant constraints. Upcoming doorstep activity and any late shifts in turnout among progressive voters could narrow or widen the most probable outcome ranges before polling day.
A by-election for the United Kingdom parliamentary constituency of Holborn and St Pancras is scheduled to be held on October 8, 2026, following the resignation of incumbent Sir Keir Starmer.
This market will resolve according to the percentage of valid votes received by the Green Party candidate in the Holborn and St Pancras by-election.
The percentage will be measured as the number of valid votes received by the Green Party candidate divided by the total number of valid votes cast in the by-election.
Valid vote percentages will be counted only where the official results attribute them to the candidate standing for the Green Party. Votes attributed to other candidates or party designations will not count, regardless of endorsements or electoral cooperation.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the results of this by-election are not definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
This market will resolve based on the results of this by-election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as published by Camden Council (https://www.camden.gov.uk/).
This market will resolve according to the percentage of valid votes received by the Green Party candidate in the Holborn and St Pancras by-election.
The percentage will be measured as the number of valid votes received by the Green Party candidate divided by the total number of valid votes cast in the by-election.
Valid vote percentages will be counted only where the official results attribute them to the candidate standing for the Green Party. Votes attributed to other candidates or party designations will not count, regardless of endorsements or electoral cooperation.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the results of this by-election are not definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
This market will resolve based on the results of this by-election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as published by Camden Council (https://www.camden.gov.uk/).
マーケット開始日： Sep 14, 2026, 6:50 PM ET
音量
$222終了日
2026/10/08マーケット開始日
Sep 14, 2026, 6:50 PM ETリゾルバー
0x69c47De9D...A by-election for the United Kingdom parliamentary constituency of Holborn and St Pancras is scheduled to be held on October 8, 2026, following the resignation of incumbent Sir Keir Starmer.
This market will resolve according to the percentage of valid votes received by the Green Party candidate in the Holborn and St Pancras by-election.
The percentage will be measured as the number of valid votes received by the Green Party candidate divided by the total number of valid votes cast in the by-election.
Valid vote percentages will be counted only where the official results attribute them to the candidate standing for the Green Party. Votes attributed to other candidates or party designations will not count, regardless of endorsements or electoral cooperation.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the results of this by-election are not definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
This market will resolve based on the results of this by-election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as published by Camden Council (https://www.camden.gov.uk/).The recent selection of Green Party leader Zack Polanski as candidate, combined with strong local council gains in Camden and endorsement from former independent challenger Andrew Feinstein, has lifted expectations for the party's performance in the October 8 by-election beyond its 10.4% share in 2024. Traders' tight distribution across vote-share brackets reflects uncertainty over how far this momentum will carry in a constituency long held by Labour, where issues such as housing costs, rent controls and climate policy resonate but traditional party loyalty and a short campaign period remain significant constraints. Upcoming doorstep activity and any late shifts in turnout among progressive voters could narrow or widen the most probable outcome ranges before polling day.
A by-election for the United Kingdom parliamentary constituency of Holborn and St Pancras is scheduled to be held on October 8, 2026, following the resignation of incumbent Sir Keir Starmer.
This market will resolve according to the percentage of valid votes received by the Green Party candidate in the Holborn and St Pancras by-election.
The percentage will be measured as the number of valid votes received by the Green Party candidate divided by the total number of valid votes cast in the by-election.
Valid vote percentages will be counted only where the official results attribute them to the candidate standing for the Green Party. Votes attributed to other candidates or party designations will not count, regardless of endorsements or electoral cooperation.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the results of this by-election are not definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
This market will resolve based on the results of this by-election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as published by Camden Council (https://www.camden.gov.uk/).
This market will resolve according to the percentage of valid votes received by the Green Party candidate in the Holborn and St Pancras by-election.
The percentage will be measured as the number of valid votes received by the Green Party candidate divided by the total number of valid votes cast in the by-election.
Valid vote percentages will be counted only where the official results attribute them to the candidate standing for the Green Party. Votes attributed to other candidates or party designations will not count, regardless of endorsements or electoral cooperation.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the results of this by-election are not definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
This market will resolve based on the results of this by-election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as published by Camden Council (https://www.camden.gov.uk/).
音量
$222終了日
2026/10/08マーケット開始日
Sep 14, 2026, 6:50 PM ETリゾルバー
0x69c47De9D...The recent selection of Green Party leader Zack Polanski as candidate, combined with strong local council gains in Camden and endorsement from former independent challenger Andrew Feinstein, has lifted expectations for the party's performance in the October 8 by-election beyond its 10.4% share in 2024. Traders' tight distribution across vote-share brackets reflects uncertainty over how far this momentum will carry in a constituency long held by Labour, where issues such as housing costs, rent controls and climate policy resonate but traditional party loyalty and a short campaign period remain significant constraints. Upcoming doorstep activity and any late shifts in turnout among progressive voters could narrow or widen the most probable outcome ranges before polling day.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日
外部リンクに注意してください。
外部リンクに注意してください。
よくある質問