Labour's projected vote share in the October 8 by-election sits in the 35-45% range according to trader consensus, reflecting a tight contest after Keir Starmer's September 1 resignation. Recent Camden local election results showed Labour on roughly 38-39% and the Greens at 28-29%, with Zack Polanski's candidacy and Andrew Feinstein's endorsement consolidating opposition support on the left. Andy Burnham's leadership has provided some national tailwinds for Labour, while the presence of 15 candidates and typical by-election turnout patterns introduce volatility. These dynamics leave room for shifts depending on final campaign momentum and voter mobilization in the constituency.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日40～45％ 33%
35～40％ 22%
45〜50％ 17%
50％以上 17%
新規
新規
2026/10/08
30％未満
11%
30～35％
11%
35～40％
22%
40～45％
33%
45〜50％
17%
50％以上
17%
40～45％ 33%
35～40％ 22%
45〜50％ 17%
50％以上 17%
新規
新規
2026/10/08
30％未満
$77 Vol.
11%
30～35％
$76 Vol.
11%
35～40％
$87 Vol.
22%
40～45％
$232 Vol.
33%
45〜50％
$116 Vol.
17%
50％以上
$208 Vol.
17%
A by-election for the United Kingdom parliamentary constituency of Holborn and St Pancras is scheduled to be held on October 8, 2026, following the resignation of incumbent Sir Keir Starmer.
This market will resolve according to the percentage of valid votes received by the Labour Party candidate in the Holborn and St Pancras by-election.
The percentage will be measured as the number of valid votes received by the Labour Party candidate divided by the total number of valid votes cast in the by-election.
Valid vote percentages will be counted only where the official results attribute them to the candidate standing for the Labour Party. Votes attributed to other candidates or party designations will not count, regardless of endorsements or electoral cooperation.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the results of this by-election are not definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
This market will resolve based on the results of this by-election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as published by Camden Council (https://www.camden.gov.uk/).Labour's projected vote share in the October 8 by-election sits in the 35-45% range according to trader consensus, reflecting a tight contest after Keir Starmer's September 1 resignation. Recent Camden local election results showed Labour on roughly 38-39% and the Greens at 28-29%, with Zack Polanski's candidacy and Andrew Feinstein's endorsement consolidating opposition support on the left. Andy Burnham's leadership has provided some national tailwinds for Labour, while the presence of 15 candidates and typical by-election turnout patterns introduce volatility. These dynamics leave room for shifts depending on final campaign momentum and voter mobilization in the constituency.
A by-election for the United Kingdom parliamentary constituency of Holborn and St Pancras is scheduled to be held on October 8, 2026, following the resignation of incumbent Sir Keir Starmer.
This market will resolve according to the percentage of valid votes received by the Labour Party candidate in the Holborn and St Pancras by-election.
The percentage will be measured as the number of valid votes received by the Labour Party candidate divided by the total number of valid votes cast in the by-election.
Valid vote percentages will be counted only where the official results attribute them to the candidate standing for the Labour Party. Votes attributed to other candidates or party designations will not count, regardless of endorsements or electoral cooperation.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the results of this by-election are not definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
This market will resolve based on the results of this by-election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as published by Camden Council (https://www.camden.gov.uk/).
This market will resolve according to the percentage of valid votes received by the Labour Party candidate in the Holborn and St Pancras by-election.
The percentage will be measured as the number of valid votes received by the Labour Party candidate divided by the total number of valid votes cast in the by-election.
Valid vote percentages will be counted only where the official results attribute them to the candidate standing for the Labour Party. Votes attributed to other candidates or party designations will not count, regardless of endorsements or electoral cooperation.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the results of this by-election are not definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
This market will resolve based on the results of this by-election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as published by Camden Council (https://www.camden.gov.uk/).
マーケット開始日： Sep 14, 2026, 6:49 PM ET
音量
$796終了日
2026/10/08マーケット開始日
Sep 14, 2026, 6:49 PM ETリゾルバー
0x69c47De9D...A by-election for the United Kingdom parliamentary constituency of Holborn and St Pancras is scheduled to be held on October 8, 2026, following the resignation of incumbent Sir Keir Starmer.
This market will resolve according to the percentage of valid votes received by the Labour Party candidate in the Holborn and St Pancras by-election.
The percentage will be measured as the number of valid votes received by the Labour Party candidate divided by the total number of valid votes cast in the by-election.
Valid vote percentages will be counted only where the official results attribute them to the candidate standing for the Labour Party. Votes attributed to other candidates or party designations will not count, regardless of endorsements or electoral cooperation.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the results of this by-election are not definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
This market will resolve based on the results of this by-election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as published by Camden Council (https://www.camden.gov.uk/).Labour's projected vote share in the October 8 by-election sits in the 35-45% range according to trader consensus, reflecting a tight contest after Keir Starmer's September 1 resignation. Recent Camden local election results showed Labour on roughly 38-39% and the Greens at 28-29%, with Zack Polanski's candidacy and Andrew Feinstein's endorsement consolidating opposition support on the left. Andy Burnham's leadership has provided some national tailwinds for Labour, while the presence of 15 candidates and typical by-election turnout patterns introduce volatility. These dynamics leave room for shifts depending on final campaign momentum and voter mobilization in the constituency.
A by-election for the United Kingdom parliamentary constituency of Holborn and St Pancras is scheduled to be held on October 8, 2026, following the resignation of incumbent Sir Keir Starmer.
This market will resolve according to the percentage of valid votes received by the Labour Party candidate in the Holborn and St Pancras by-election.
The percentage will be measured as the number of valid votes received by the Labour Party candidate divided by the total number of valid votes cast in the by-election.
Valid vote percentages will be counted only where the official results attribute them to the candidate standing for the Labour Party. Votes attributed to other candidates or party designations will not count, regardless of endorsements or electoral cooperation.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the results of this by-election are not definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
This market will resolve based on the results of this by-election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as published by Camden Council (https://www.camden.gov.uk/).
This market will resolve according to the percentage of valid votes received by the Labour Party candidate in the Holborn and St Pancras by-election.
The percentage will be measured as the number of valid votes received by the Labour Party candidate divided by the total number of valid votes cast in the by-election.
Valid vote percentages will be counted only where the official results attribute them to the candidate standing for the Labour Party. Votes attributed to other candidates or party designations will not count, regardless of endorsements or electoral cooperation.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the results of this by-election are not definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
This market will resolve based on the results of this by-election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as published by Camden Council (https://www.camden.gov.uk/).
音量
$796終了日
2026/10/08マーケット開始日
Sep 14, 2026, 6:49 PM ETリゾルバー
0x69c47De9D...Labour's projected vote share in the October 8 by-election sits in the 35-45% range according to trader consensus, reflecting a tight contest after Keir Starmer's September 1 resignation. Recent Camden local election results showed Labour on roughly 38-39% and the Greens at 28-29%, with Zack Polanski's candidacy and Andrew Feinstein's endorsement consolidating opposition support on the left. Andy Burnham's leadership has provided some national tailwinds for Labour, while the presence of 15 candidates and typical by-election turnout patterns introduce volatility. These dynamics leave room for shifts depending on final campaign momentum and voter mobilization in the constituency.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日
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