Flavio Bolsonaro’s August 5 announcement naming federal deputy Alfredo Gaspar (PL-AL) as his vice-presidential running mate for the October 2026 election has driven the sharp shift in trader probabilities, placing Gaspar at the top of the market. Gaspar emerged after weeks of internal Liberal Party discussions and unsuccessful outreach to higher-profile figures, including Senator Tereza Cristina and former Caixa chief Daniella Marques, whose parties declined to join the ticket. Earlier speculation had centered on names such as Bia Kicis, Michelle Bolsonaro, and Rosana Valle, yet those options faded once the party settled on Gaspar to consolidate its congressional base and emphasize security and anti-corruption themes. The announcement effectively resolved the selection process, leaving limited room for late changes before formal convention confirmation.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日アルフレド・ガスパール 91%
ダニエラ・マルケス 70%
テレーザ・クリスチーナ 12%
ダマレス・アルヴェス 9%

アルフレド・ガスパール
91%

ダニエラ・マルケス
70%

テレーザ・クリスチーナ
12%

ダマレス・アルヴェス
9%

ジルソン・マシャド
9%

ロザナ・ヴァレ
9%

レナタ・アブレウ
8%

ビア・キシス
8%

プリシラ・コスタ
8%

シモーネ・マルケット
4%

クラリッサ・テルシオ
4%

ミシェル・ボルソナロ
4%

マルコス・ポンテス
2%

ロジェリオ・マリーニョ
1%

ジュリア・ザナッタ
1%
アルフレド・ガスパール 91%
ダニエラ・マルケス 70%
テレーザ・クリスチーナ 12%
ダマレス・アルヴェス 9%

アルフレド・ガスパール
91%

ダニエラ・マルケス
70%

テレーザ・クリスチーナ
12%

ダマレス・アルヴェス
9%

ジルソン・マシャド
9%

ロザナ・ヴァレ
9%

レナタ・アブレウ
8%

ビア・キシス
8%

プリシラ・コスタ
8%

シモーネ・マルケット
4%

クラリッサ・テルシオ
4%

ミシェル・ボルソナロ
4%

マルコス・ポンテス
2%

ロジェリオ・マリーニョ
1%

ジュリア・ザナッタ
1%
An announcement of candidate selection will not alone qualify.
If Flavio Bolsonaro does not officially file a registration request to contest the 2026 Brazil presidential elections by August 15, 2026, 11:59 Brasilia time, this market will resolve to “Other”.
Any subsequent substitution, replacement, withdrawal, disqualification, or other change to the initially registered vice-presidential candidate will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be official information from the Government of Brazil, including the Superior Electoral Court (TSE, https://divulgacandcontas.tse.jus.br/).
マーケット開始日: Aug 4, 2026, 12:08 PM ET
Resolver
0x69c47De9D...An announcement of candidate selection will not alone qualify.
If Flavio Bolsonaro does not officially file a registration request to contest the 2026 Brazil presidential elections by August 15, 2026, 11:59 Brasilia time, this market will resolve to “Other”.
Any subsequent substitution, replacement, withdrawal, disqualification, or other change to the initially registered vice-presidential candidate will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be official information from the Government of Brazil, including the Superior Electoral Court (TSE, https://divulgacandcontas.tse.jus.br/).
Resolver
0x69c47De9D...Flavio Bolsonaro’s August 5 announcement naming federal deputy Alfredo Gaspar (PL-AL) as his vice-presidential running mate for the October 2026 election has driven the sharp shift in trader probabilities, placing Gaspar at the top of the market. Gaspar emerged after weeks of internal Liberal Party discussions and unsuccessful outreach to higher-profile figures, including Senator Tereza Cristina and former Caixa chief Daniella Marques, whose parties declined to join the ticket. Earlier speculation had centered on names such as Bia Kicis, Michelle Bolsonaro, and Rosana Valle, yet those options faded once the party settled on Gaspar to consolidate its congressional base and emphasize security and anti-corruption themes. The announcement effectively resolved the selection process, leaving limited room for late changes before formal convention confirmation.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日


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